Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake
A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain fa...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
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| Autor*in: |
Li, Yiping [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2015 |
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| Rechteinformationen: |
Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Hydrological sciences journal - Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982, 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:60 ; year:2015 ; number:6 ; pages:1078-18 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake |
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| 520 | |a A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi | ||
| 540 | |a Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Lac Taihu | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Lake Taihu | |
| 650 | 4 | |a modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a sensitive analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a analyse de sensibilité | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tang, Chunyan |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu, Jianting |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pan, Baozhu |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Anim, Desmond O |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ji, Yong |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yu, Zhongbo |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Acharya, Kumud |4 oth | |
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10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC196290265X (DE-599)GBVOLC196290265X (PRQ)c2168-15ced1b1fb2740bbb4a9a44396037c3a0bc25020245a5c59cf5f7adae5bdb2b60 (KEY)0010489220150000060000601078parametricuncertaintyandsensitivityanalysisofhydro DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.85 bkl Li, Yiping verfasserin aut Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité Tang, Chunyan oth Zhu, Jianting oth Pan, Baozhu oth Anim, Desmond O oth Ji, Yong oth Yu, Zhongbo oth Acharya, Kumud oth Enthalten in Hydrological sciences journal Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 (DE-627)130415235 (DE-600)625713-6 (DE-576)015917908 0262-6667 nnns volume:60 year:2015 number:6 pages:1078-18 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 Volltext http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1691593515 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4314 38.85 AVZ AR 60 2015 6 1078-18 |
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10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC196290265X (DE-599)GBVOLC196290265X (PRQ)c2168-15ced1b1fb2740bbb4a9a44396037c3a0bc25020245a5c59cf5f7adae5bdb2b60 (KEY)0010489220150000060000601078parametricuncertaintyandsensitivityanalysisofhydro DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.85 bkl Li, Yiping verfasserin aut Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité Tang, Chunyan oth Zhu, Jianting oth Pan, Baozhu oth Anim, Desmond O oth Ji, Yong oth Yu, Zhongbo oth Acharya, Kumud oth Enthalten in Hydrological sciences journal Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 (DE-627)130415235 (DE-600)625713-6 (DE-576)015917908 0262-6667 nnns volume:60 year:2015 number:6 pages:1078-18 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 Volltext http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1691593515 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4314 38.85 AVZ AR 60 2015 6 1078-18 |
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10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC196290265X (DE-599)GBVOLC196290265X (PRQ)c2168-15ced1b1fb2740bbb4a9a44396037c3a0bc25020245a5c59cf5f7adae5bdb2b60 (KEY)0010489220150000060000601078parametricuncertaintyandsensitivityanalysisofhydro DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.85 bkl Li, Yiping verfasserin aut Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité Tang, Chunyan oth Zhu, Jianting oth Pan, Baozhu oth Anim, Desmond O oth Ji, Yong oth Yu, Zhongbo oth Acharya, Kumud oth Enthalten in Hydrological sciences journal Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 (DE-627)130415235 (DE-600)625713-6 (DE-576)015917908 0262-6667 nnns volume:60 year:2015 number:6 pages:1078-18 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 Volltext http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1691593515 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4314 38.85 AVZ AR 60 2015 6 1078-18 |
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10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC196290265X (DE-599)GBVOLC196290265X (PRQ)c2168-15ced1b1fb2740bbb4a9a44396037c3a0bc25020245a5c59cf5f7adae5bdb2b60 (KEY)0010489220150000060000601078parametricuncertaintyandsensitivityanalysisofhydro DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.85 bkl Li, Yiping verfasserin aut Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité Tang, Chunyan oth Zhu, Jianting oth Pan, Baozhu oth Anim, Desmond O oth Ji, Yong oth Yu, Zhongbo oth Acharya, Kumud oth Enthalten in Hydrological sciences journal Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 (DE-627)130415235 (DE-600)625713-6 (DE-576)015917908 0262-6667 nnns volume:60 year:2015 number:6 pages:1078-18 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 Volltext http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1691593515 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4314 38.85 AVZ AR 60 2015 6 1078-18 |
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10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 doi PQ20160617 (DE-627)OLC196290265X (DE-599)GBVOLC196290265X (PRQ)c2168-15ced1b1fb2740bbb4a9a44396037c3a0bc25020245a5c59cf5f7adae5bdb2b60 (KEY)0010489220150000060000601078parametricuncertaintyandsensitivityanalysisofhydro DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.85 bkl Li, Yiping verfasserin aut Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake 2015 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Nutzungsrecht: © 2015 IAHS 2015 Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité Tang, Chunyan oth Zhu, Jianting oth Pan, Baozhu oth Anim, Desmond O oth Ji, Yong oth Yu, Zhongbo oth Acharya, Kumud oth Enthalten in Hydrological sciences journal Abingdon, Oxon : Taylor & Francis, 1982 60(2015), 6, Seite 1078-18 (DE-627)130415235 (DE-600)625713-6 (DE-576)015917908 0262-6667 nnns volume:60 year:2015 number:6 pages:1078-18 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 Volltext http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2014.948444 http://search.proquest.com/docview/1691593515 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4314 38.85 AVZ AR 60 2015 6 1078-18 |
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Li, Yiping |
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550 DNB 38.85 bkl Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Lac Taihu Lake Taihu modèle EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) sensitive analysis échantillonage par hypercube latin (EHL) EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model analyse de sensibilité |
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parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake |
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Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake |
| abstract |
A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi |
| abstractGer |
A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi |
| abstract_unstemmed |
A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air-water interface factor, water-sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi |
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Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake |
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Tang, Chunyan Zhu, Jianting Pan, Baozhu Anim, Desmond O Ji, Yong Yu, Zhongbo Acharya, Kumud |
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The air-water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60-70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water-sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes. Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. 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