Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin
A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective....
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Hassanzadeh, Elmira [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2016 |
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| Rechteinformationen: |
Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Journal of water resources planning and management - Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983, 142(2016), 2 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:142 ; year:2016 ; number:2 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 |
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| 520 | |a A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Gober, Patricia |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nazemi, Ali |4 oth | |
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10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 doi PQ20160430 (DE-627)OLC1971695653 (DE-599)GBVOLC1971695653 (PRQ)gale_infotrac_4417658970 (KEY)0022562220160000142000200000integratingsupplyuncertaintiesfromstochasticmodeli DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 ZDB Hassanzadeh, Elmira verfasserin aut Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers Management Learning models (Stochastic processes) Analysis Water-supply Saskatchewan Water Usage Elshorbagy, Amin oth Wheater, Howard oth Gober, Patricia oth Nazemi, Ali oth Enthalten in Journal of water resources planning and management Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983 142(2016), 2 (DE-627)129381179 (DE-600)165158-4 (DE-576)014765861 0733-9496 nnns volume:142 year:2016 number:2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 142 2016 2 |
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10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 doi PQ20160430 (DE-627)OLC1971695653 (DE-599)GBVOLC1971695653 (PRQ)gale_infotrac_4417658970 (KEY)0022562220160000142000200000integratingsupplyuncertaintiesfromstochasticmodeli DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 ZDB Hassanzadeh, Elmira verfasserin aut Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers Management Learning models (Stochastic processes) Analysis Water-supply Saskatchewan Water Usage Elshorbagy, Amin oth Wheater, Howard oth Gober, Patricia oth Nazemi, Ali oth Enthalten in Journal of water resources planning and management Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983 142(2016), 2 (DE-627)129381179 (DE-600)165158-4 (DE-576)014765861 0733-9496 nnns volume:142 year:2016 number:2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 142 2016 2 |
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10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 doi PQ20160430 (DE-627)OLC1971695653 (DE-599)GBVOLC1971695653 (PRQ)gale_infotrac_4417658970 (KEY)0022562220160000142000200000integratingsupplyuncertaintiesfromstochasticmodeli DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 ZDB Hassanzadeh, Elmira verfasserin aut Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers Management Learning models (Stochastic processes) Analysis Water-supply Saskatchewan Water Usage Elshorbagy, Amin oth Wheater, Howard oth Gober, Patricia oth Nazemi, Ali oth Enthalten in Journal of water resources planning and management Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983 142(2016), 2 (DE-627)129381179 (DE-600)165158-4 (DE-576)014765861 0733-9496 nnns volume:142 year:2016 number:2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 142 2016 2 |
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10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 doi PQ20160430 (DE-627)OLC1971695653 (DE-599)GBVOLC1971695653 (PRQ)gale_infotrac_4417658970 (KEY)0022562220160000142000200000integratingsupplyuncertaintiesfromstochasticmodeli DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 ZDB Hassanzadeh, Elmira verfasserin aut Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers Management Learning models (Stochastic processes) Analysis Water-supply Saskatchewan Water Usage Elshorbagy, Amin oth Wheater, Howard oth Gober, Patricia oth Nazemi, Ali oth Enthalten in Journal of water resources planning and management Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983 142(2016), 2 (DE-627)129381179 (DE-600)165158-4 (DE-576)014765861 0733-9496 nnns volume:142 year:2016 number:2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 142 2016 2 |
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10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 doi PQ20160430 (DE-627)OLC1971695653 (DE-599)GBVOLC1971695653 (PRQ)gale_infotrac_4417658970 (KEY)0022562220160000142000200000integratingsupplyuncertaintiesfromstochasticmodeli DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 ZDB Hassanzadeh, Elmira verfasserin aut Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Nutzungsrecht: © COPYRIGHT 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers Management Learning models (Stochastic processes) Analysis Water-supply Saskatchewan Water Usage Elshorbagy, Amin oth Wheater, Howard oth Gober, Patricia oth Nazemi, Ali oth Enthalten in Journal of water resources planning and management Reston, Va. : American Society of Civil Engineers, 1983 142(2016), 2 (DE-627)129381179 (DE-600)165158-4 (DE-576)014765861 0733-9496 nnns volume:142 year:2016 number:2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 142 2016 2 |
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integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the saskatchewan river basin |
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Integrating supply uncertainties from stochastic modeling into integrated water resource management: case study of the Saskatchewan river basin |
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A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 |
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A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 |
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A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by perturbing annual volumes and the seasonal timing of the hydrograph peak as input to an integrated water resources model. The analysis enables evaluation of the effects of economic development plans as well as variations in volume and peak timing of flows on water availability and economic productivity, including possibilities for failure to meet demands. Results for the SaskRB show that a large increase in irrigated agriculture raises average net revenues, but these are highly dependent on water supply conditions and loss of revenue may arise under drought conditions. Hydropower production is more sensitive to changes in annual inflow volume than to changes in either annual timing of the peak flow or the magnitude of irrigation expansion. Irrigation expansion can considerably affect the peak flows in the Saskatchewan River Delta, the largest inland delta in North America, during low-flow conditions. For example, a 400% increase in irrigated area under a 25% decrease in inflow volume and 4-week-earlier annual peak timing can reduce the frequency of peak flows in the delta by more than 50%, though potential effects on the riparian and aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. This case study illustrates the practical utility of stochastic analysis of system vulnerability to feasible futures in such a way that socioeconomic trade-offs can be readily visualized and understood. Such performance assessments are useful for long-term water resources planning and management under water supply uncertainty. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-452.0000581 |
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