One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator
Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Visentin, Roberto [verfasserIn] |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
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2016 |
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Enthalten in: IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering - New York, NY : IEEE, 1964, 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:63 ; year:2016 ; number:11 ; pages:2416-2424 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC1984429213 |
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245 | 1 | 0 | |a One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator |
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520 | |a Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Sugar | |
650 | 4 | |a closed-loop control | |
650 | 4 | |a Sociology | |
650 | 4 | |a in silico | |
650 | 4 | |a circadian variability | |
650 | 4 | |a Bayes methods | |
650 | 4 | |a Mathematical model | |
650 | 4 | |a Artificial pancreas | |
650 | 4 | |a Plasmas | |
650 | 4 | |a compartmental modeling | |
650 | 4 | |a Data models | |
650 | 4 | |a Insulin | |
650 | 4 | |a Glucose | |
700 | 1 | |a Man, Chiara Dalla |4 oth | |
700 | 1 | |a Cobelli, Claudio |4 oth | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering |d New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 |g 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 |w (DE-627)129358452 |w (DE-600)160429-6 |w (DE-576)01473074X |x 0018-9294 |7 nnns |
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856 | 4 | 1 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 |3 Volltext |
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10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 doi PQ20161201 (DE-627)OLC1984429213 (DE-599)GBVOLC1984429213 (PRQ)c1651-fad7c35a1926f33d6a4a1d71bd28e4d66b33bbd67b3e947818bfe4f561e65e050 (KEY)0037705820160000063001102416onedaybayesiancloningoftype1diabetessubjectstoward DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl Visentin, Roberto verfasserin aut One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose Man, Chiara Dalla oth Cobelli, Claudio oth Enthalten in IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 (DE-627)129358452 (DE-600)160429-6 (DE-576)01473074X 0018-9294 nnns volume:63 year:2016 number:11 pages:2416-2424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 Volltext http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7420664 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2410 GBV_ILN_4219 XA 48665 44.09 AVZ 44.40 AVZ AR 63 2016 11 2416-2424 |
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10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 doi PQ20161201 (DE-627)OLC1984429213 (DE-599)GBVOLC1984429213 (PRQ)c1651-fad7c35a1926f33d6a4a1d71bd28e4d66b33bbd67b3e947818bfe4f561e65e050 (KEY)0037705820160000063001102416onedaybayesiancloningoftype1diabetessubjectstoward DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl Visentin, Roberto verfasserin aut One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose Man, Chiara Dalla oth Cobelli, Claudio oth Enthalten in IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 (DE-627)129358452 (DE-600)160429-6 (DE-576)01473074X 0018-9294 nnns volume:63 year:2016 number:11 pages:2416-2424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 Volltext http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7420664 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2410 GBV_ILN_4219 XA 48665 44.09 AVZ 44.40 AVZ AR 63 2016 11 2416-2424 |
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10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 doi PQ20161201 (DE-627)OLC1984429213 (DE-599)GBVOLC1984429213 (PRQ)c1651-fad7c35a1926f33d6a4a1d71bd28e4d66b33bbd67b3e947818bfe4f561e65e050 (KEY)0037705820160000063001102416onedaybayesiancloningoftype1diabetessubjectstoward DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl Visentin, Roberto verfasserin aut One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose Man, Chiara Dalla oth Cobelli, Claudio oth Enthalten in IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 (DE-627)129358452 (DE-600)160429-6 (DE-576)01473074X 0018-9294 nnns volume:63 year:2016 number:11 pages:2416-2424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 Volltext http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7420664 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2410 GBV_ILN_4219 XA 48665 44.09 AVZ 44.40 AVZ AR 63 2016 11 2416-2424 |
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10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 doi PQ20161201 (DE-627)OLC1984429213 (DE-599)GBVOLC1984429213 (PRQ)c1651-fad7c35a1926f33d6a4a1d71bd28e4d66b33bbd67b3e947818bfe4f561e65e050 (KEY)0037705820160000063001102416onedaybayesiancloningoftype1diabetessubjectstoward DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl Visentin, Roberto verfasserin aut One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose Man, Chiara Dalla oth Cobelli, Claudio oth Enthalten in IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 (DE-627)129358452 (DE-600)160429-6 (DE-576)01473074X 0018-9294 nnns volume:63 year:2016 number:11 pages:2416-2424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 Volltext http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7420664 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2410 GBV_ILN_4219 XA 48665 44.09 AVZ 44.40 AVZ AR 63 2016 11 2416-2424 |
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10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 doi PQ20161201 (DE-627)OLC1984429213 (DE-599)GBVOLC1984429213 (PRQ)c1651-fad7c35a1926f33d6a4a1d71bd28e4d66b33bbd67b3e947818bfe4f561e65e050 (KEY)0037705820160000063001102416onedaybayesiancloningoftype1diabetessubjectstoward DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl Visentin, Roberto verfasserin aut One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose Man, Chiara Dalla oth Cobelli, Claudio oth Enthalten in IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering New York, NY : IEEE, 1964 63(2016), 11, Seite 2416-2424 (DE-627)129358452 (DE-600)160429-6 (DE-576)01473074X 0018-9294 nnns volume:63 year:2016 number:11 pages:2416-2424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2016.2535241 Volltext http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7420664 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-PHA GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2410 GBV_ILN_4219 XA 48665 44.09 AVZ 44.40 AVZ AR 63 2016 11 2416-2424 |
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620 610 DE-600 XA 48665 AVZ rvk 44.09 bkl 44.40 bkl One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator Sugar closed-loop control Sociology in silico circadian variability Bayes methods Mathematical model Artificial pancreas Plasmas compartmental modeling Data models Insulin Glucose |
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ddc 620 rvk XA 48665 bkl 44.09 bkl 44.40 misc Sugar misc closed-loop control misc Sociology misc in silico misc circadian variability misc Bayes methods misc Mathematical model misc Artificial pancreas misc Plasmas misc compartmental modeling misc Data models misc Insulin misc Glucose |
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ddc 620 rvk XA 48665 bkl 44.09 bkl 44.40 misc Sugar misc closed-loop control misc Sociology misc in silico misc circadian variability misc Bayes methods misc Mathematical model misc Artificial pancreas misc Plasmas misc compartmental modeling misc Data models misc Insulin misc Glucose |
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One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator |
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One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator |
abstract |
Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. |
abstractGer |
Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Objective : The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) Simulator has been shown to be representative of a T1DM population observed in a clinical trial, but has not yet been identified on T1DM data. Moreover, the current version of the simulator is "single meal" while making it "single-day centric," i.e., by describing intraday variability, would be a step forward to create more realistic in silico scenarios. Here, we propose a Bayesian method for the identification of the model from plasma glucose and insulin concentrations only, by exploiting the prior model parameter distribution. Methods : The database consists of 47 T1DM subjects, who received dinner, breakfast, and lunch (respectively, 80, 50, and 60 CHO grams) in three 23-h occasions (one open- and one closed-loop). The model is identified using the Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori technique, where the prior parameter distribution is that of the simulator. Diurnal variability of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity is allowed. Results : The model well describes glucose traces (coefficient of determination <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">R^{2} = 0.962 \,\pm\, 0.027 </tex-math></inline-formula>) and the posterior parameter distribution is similar to that included in the simulator. Absorption parameters at breakfast are significantly different from those at lunch and dinner, reflecting more rapid dynamics of glucose absorption. Insulin sensitivity varies in each individual but without a specific pattern. Conclusion : The incorporation of glucose absorption and insulin sensitivity diurnal variability into the simulator makes it more realistic. Significance : The proposed method, applied to the increasing number of long-term artificial pancreas studies, will allow to describe week/month variability, thus further refining the simulator. |
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title_short |
One-Day Bayesian Cloning of Type 1 Diabetes Subjects: Toward a Single-Day UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator |
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