A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States
A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Sofia M Santillana Farakos [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2017 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Journal of food protection - Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977, 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:80 ; year:2017 ; number:9 ; pages:1574 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC1997348705 |
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520 | |a A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Risk assessment | |
650 | 4 | |a Mathematical models | |
650 | 4 | |a Contamination | |
650 | 4 | |a Wildlife conservation | |
650 | 4 | |a Drying | |
650 | 4 | |a Impact prediction | |
650 | 4 | |a Confidence intervals | |
650 | 4 | |a Environmental protection | |
650 | 4 | |a Reduction | |
650 | 4 | |a Conditioning | |
650 | 4 | |a Heating | |
650 | 4 | |a Salmonellosis | |
650 | 4 | |a Food contamination & poisoning | |
650 | 4 | |a Delay | |
650 | 4 | |a Cooking | |
650 | 4 | |a Microorganisms | |
650 | 4 | |a Immersion | |
650 | 4 | |a Consumption | |
650 | 4 | |a Cold treatment | |
650 | 4 | |a Health risk assessment | |
650 | 4 | |a Pecan nuts | |
650 | 4 | |a Salmonella | |
700 | 0 | |a Régis Pouillot |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Rhoma Johnson |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Judith Spungen |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Insook Son |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Nathan Anderson |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Gordon R Davidson |4 oth | |
700 | 0 | |a Jane M Van Doren |4 oth | |
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10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1997348705 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997348705 (PRQ)proquest_journals_19348965420 (KEY)0062396220170000080000901574quantitativeassessmentoftheriskofhumansalmonellosi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 660 630 DE-600 Sofia M Santillana Farakos verfasserin aut A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella Régis Pouillot oth Rhoma Johnson oth Judith Spungen oth Insook Son oth Nathan Anderson oth Gordon R Davidson oth Jane M Van Doren oth Enthalten in Journal of food protection Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 (DE-627)129612553 (DE-600)243284-5 (DE-576)015108767 0362-028X nnns volume:80 year:2017 number:9 pages:1574 http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1934896542 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_183 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 80 2017 9 1574 |
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10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1997348705 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997348705 (PRQ)proquest_journals_19348965420 (KEY)0062396220170000080000901574quantitativeassessmentoftheriskofhumansalmonellosi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 660 630 DE-600 Sofia M Santillana Farakos verfasserin aut A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella Régis Pouillot oth Rhoma Johnson oth Judith Spungen oth Insook Son oth Nathan Anderson oth Gordon R Davidson oth Jane M Van Doren oth Enthalten in Journal of food protection Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 (DE-627)129612553 (DE-600)243284-5 (DE-576)015108767 0362-028X nnns volume:80 year:2017 number:9 pages:1574 http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1934896542 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_183 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 80 2017 9 1574 |
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10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1997348705 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997348705 (PRQ)proquest_journals_19348965420 (KEY)0062396220170000080000901574quantitativeassessmentoftheriskofhumansalmonellosi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 660 630 DE-600 Sofia M Santillana Farakos verfasserin aut A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella Régis Pouillot oth Rhoma Johnson oth Judith Spungen oth Insook Son oth Nathan Anderson oth Gordon R Davidson oth Jane M Van Doren oth Enthalten in Journal of food protection Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 (DE-627)129612553 (DE-600)243284-5 (DE-576)015108767 0362-028X nnns volume:80 year:2017 number:9 pages:1574 http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1934896542 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_183 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 80 2017 9 1574 |
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10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1997348705 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997348705 (PRQ)proquest_journals_19348965420 (KEY)0062396220170000080000901574quantitativeassessmentoftheriskofhumansalmonellosi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 660 630 DE-600 Sofia M Santillana Farakos verfasserin aut A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella Régis Pouillot oth Rhoma Johnson oth Judith Spungen oth Insook Son oth Nathan Anderson oth Gordon R Davidson oth Jane M Van Doren oth Enthalten in Journal of food protection Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 (DE-627)129612553 (DE-600)243284-5 (DE-576)015108767 0362-028X nnns volume:80 year:2017 number:9 pages:1574 http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1934896542 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_183 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 80 2017 9 1574 |
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10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1997348705 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997348705 (PRQ)proquest_journals_19348965420 (KEY)0062396220170000080000901574quantitativeassessmentoftheriskofhumansalmonellosi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 660 630 DE-600 Sofia M Santillana Farakos verfasserin aut A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella Régis Pouillot oth Rhoma Johnson oth Judith Spungen oth Insook Son oth Nathan Anderson oth Gordon R Davidson oth Jane M Van Doren oth Enthalten in Journal of food protection Des Moines, Iowa : International Association for Food Protection, 1977 80(2017), 9, Seite 1574 (DE-627)129612553 (DE-600)243284-5 (DE-576)015108767 0362-028X nnns volume:80 year:2017 number:9 pages:1574 http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028XJFP-16-511 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1934896542 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_183 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 80 2017 9 1574 |
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Sofia M Santillana Farakos @@aut@@ Régis Pouillot @@oth@@ Rhoma Johnson @@oth@@ Judith Spungen @@oth@@ Insook Son @@oth@@ Nathan Anderson @@oth@@ Gordon R Davidson @@oth@@ Jane M Van Doren @@oth@@ |
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Sofia M Santillana Farakos ddc 660 misc Risk assessment misc Mathematical models misc Contamination misc Wildlife conservation misc Drying misc Impact prediction misc Confidence intervals misc Environmental protection misc Reduction misc Conditioning misc Heating misc Salmonellosis misc Food contamination & poisoning misc Delay misc Cooking misc Microorganisms misc Immersion misc Consumption misc Cold treatment misc Health risk assessment misc Pecan nuts misc Salmonella A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States |
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660 630 DE-600 A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States Risk assessment Mathematical models Contamination Wildlife conservation Drying Impact prediction Confidence intervals Environmental protection Reduction Conditioning Heating Salmonellosis Food contamination & poisoning Delay Cooking Microorganisms Immersion Consumption Cold treatment Health risk assessment Pecan nuts Salmonella |
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ddc 660 misc Risk assessment misc Mathematical models misc Contamination misc Wildlife conservation misc Drying misc Impact prediction misc Confidence intervals misc Environmental protection misc Reduction misc Conditioning misc Heating misc Salmonellosis misc Food contamination & poisoning misc Delay misc Cooking misc Microorganisms misc Immersion misc Consumption misc Cold treatment misc Health risk assessment misc Pecan nuts misc Salmonella |
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ddc 660 misc Risk assessment misc Mathematical models misc Contamination misc Wildlife conservation misc Drying misc Impact prediction misc Confidence intervals misc Environmental protection misc Reduction misc Conditioning misc Heating misc Salmonellosis misc Food contamination & poisoning misc Delay misc Cooking misc Microorganisms misc Immersion misc Consumption misc Cold treatment misc Health risk assessment misc Pecan nuts misc Salmonella |
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quantitative assessment of the risk of human salmonellosis arising from the consumption of pecans in the united states |
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A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States |
abstract |
A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. |
abstractGer |
A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. |
abstract_unstemmed |
A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and inshell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk. |
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A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States |
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