The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 190...
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Autor*in:	Robert W Snow [verfasserIn] Benn Sartorius David Kyalo Joseph Maina Punam Amratia Clara W Mundia Philip Bejon Abdisalan M Noor

Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2017

Schlagwörter:	Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Nature - London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869, 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:550 ; year:2017 ; number:7677 ; pages:515-3A

Links:	Volltext Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.1038/nature24059

Katalog-ID:	OLC1997476460

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publishDate	2017
allfields	10.1038/nature24059 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC1997476460 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997476460 (PRQ)p932-e739d3ec493647096b1281157d47ddd059695babb4fb229607493db39e20fa550 (KEY)0072945020170000550767700515prevalenceofplasmodiumfalciparuminsubsaharanafrica DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 070 500 DE-101 500 AVZ BIODIV fid Robert W Snow verfasserin aut The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences. Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections Benn Sartorius oth David Kyalo oth Joseph Maina oth Punam Amratia oth Clara W Mundia oth Philip Bejon oth Abdisalan M Noor oth Enthalten in Nature London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A (DE-627)129292834 (DE-600)120714-3 (DE-576)014473941 0028-0836 nnns volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24059 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1957212430 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-SPO SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_55 GBV_ILN_59 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_135 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_168 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_211 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_290 GBV_ILN_294 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_754 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2002 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2016 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2095 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2120 GBV_ILN_2121 GBV_ILN_2219 GBV_ILN_2221 GBV_ILN_2279 GBV_ILN_2286 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4219 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4302 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4314 GBV_ILN_4317 GBV_ILN_4320 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 550 2017 7677 515-3A
spelling	10.1038/nature24059 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC1997476460 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997476460 (PRQ)p932-e739d3ec493647096b1281157d47ddd059695babb4fb229607493db39e20fa550 (KEY)0072945020170000550767700515prevalenceofplasmodiumfalciparuminsubsaharanafrica DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 070 500 DE-101 500 AVZ BIODIV fid Robert W Snow verfasserin aut The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences. Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections Benn Sartorius oth David Kyalo oth Joseph Maina oth Punam Amratia oth Clara W Mundia oth Philip Bejon oth Abdisalan M Noor oth Enthalten in Nature London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A (DE-627)129292834 (DE-600)120714-3 (DE-576)014473941 0028-0836 nnns volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24059 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1957212430 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-SPO SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_55 GBV_ILN_59 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_135 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_168 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_211 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_290 GBV_ILN_294 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_754 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2002 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2016 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2095 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2120 GBV_ILN_2121 GBV_ILN_2219 GBV_ILN_2221 GBV_ILN_2279 GBV_ILN_2286 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4219 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4302 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4314 GBV_ILN_4317 GBV_ILN_4320 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 550 2017 7677 515-3A
allfields_unstemmed	10.1038/nature24059 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC1997476460 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997476460 (PRQ)p932-e739d3ec493647096b1281157d47ddd059695babb4fb229607493db39e20fa550 (KEY)0072945020170000550767700515prevalenceofplasmodiumfalciparuminsubsaharanafrica DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 070 500 DE-101 500 AVZ BIODIV fid Robert W Snow verfasserin aut The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences. Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections Benn Sartorius oth David Kyalo oth Joseph Maina oth Punam Amratia oth Clara W Mundia oth Philip Bejon oth Abdisalan M Noor oth Enthalten in Nature London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A (DE-627)129292834 (DE-600)120714-3 (DE-576)014473941 0028-0836 nnns volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24059 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1957212430 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-SPO SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_55 GBV_ILN_59 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_135 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_168 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_211 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_290 GBV_ILN_294 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_754 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2002 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2016 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2095 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2120 GBV_ILN_2121 GBV_ILN_2219 GBV_ILN_2221 GBV_ILN_2279 GBV_ILN_2286 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4219 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4302 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4314 GBV_ILN_4317 GBV_ILN_4320 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 550 2017 7677 515-3A
allfieldsGer	10.1038/nature24059 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC1997476460 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997476460 (PRQ)p932-e739d3ec493647096b1281157d47ddd059695babb4fb229607493db39e20fa550 (KEY)0072945020170000550767700515prevalenceofplasmodiumfalciparuminsubsaharanafrica DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 070 500 DE-101 500 AVZ BIODIV fid Robert W Snow verfasserin aut The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences. Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections Benn Sartorius oth David Kyalo oth Joseph Maina oth Punam Amratia oth Clara W Mundia oth Philip Bejon oth Abdisalan M Noor oth Enthalten in Nature London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A (DE-627)129292834 (DE-600)120714-3 (DE-576)014473941 0028-0836 nnns volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24059 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1957212430 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-SPO SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_55 GBV_ILN_59 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_135 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_168 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_211 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_290 GBV_ILN_294 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_754 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2002 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2016 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2095 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2120 GBV_ILN_2121 GBV_ILN_2219 GBV_ILN_2221 GBV_ILN_2279 GBV_ILN_2286 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4219 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4302 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4314 GBV_ILN_4317 GBV_ILN_4320 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 550 2017 7677 515-3A
allfieldsSound	10.1038/nature24059 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC1997476460 (DE-599)GBVOLC1997476460 (PRQ)p932-e739d3ec493647096b1281157d47ddd059695babb4fb229607493db39e20fa550 (KEY)0072945020170000550767700515prevalenceofplasmodiumfalciparuminsubsaharanafrica DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 070 500 DE-101 500 AVZ BIODIV fid Robert W Snow verfasserin aut The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences. Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections Benn Sartorius oth David Kyalo oth Joseph Maina oth Punam Amratia oth Clara W Mundia oth Philip Bejon oth Abdisalan M Noor oth Enthalten in Nature London : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 1869 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A (DE-627)129292834 (DE-600)120714-3 (DE-576)014473941 0028-0836 nnns volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24059 Volltext https://search.proquest.com/docview/1957212430 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-CHE SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-SPO SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-FOR GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_55 GBV_ILN_59 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_135 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_168 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_211 GBV_ILN_252 GBV_ILN_290 GBV_ILN_294 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_754 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2002 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2016 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2095 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2120 GBV_ILN_2121 GBV_ILN_2219 GBV_ILN_2221 GBV_ILN_2279 GBV_ILN_2286 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4219 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4302 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4314 GBV_ILN_4317 GBV_ILN_4320 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 550 2017 7677 515-3A
language	English
source	Enthalten in Nature 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A
sourceStr	Enthalten in Nature 550(2017), 7677, Seite 515-3A volume:550 year:2017 number:7677 pages:515-3A
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Historical account Parasites Erythrocytes Vector-borne diseases Intervention Malaria Maps Land use Disease transmission Insecticides Epidemiology Pesticides Mosquitoes Parasitic diseases Infections
dewey-raw	070
isfreeaccess_bool	false
container_title	Nature
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Robert W Snow @@aut@@ Benn Sartorius @@oth@@ David Kyalo @@oth@@ Joseph Maina @@oth@@ Punam Amratia @@oth@@ Clara W Mundia @@oth@@ Philip Bejon @@oth@@ Abdisalan M Noor @@oth@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2017-01-01T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	129292834
dewey-sort	270
id	OLC1997476460
language_de	englisch
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author	Robert W Snow
spellingShingle	Robert W Snow ddc 070 ddc 500 fid BIODIV misc Historical account misc Parasites misc Erythrocytes misc Vector-borne diseases misc Intervention misc Malaria misc Maps misc Land use misc Disease transmission misc Insecticides misc Epidemiology misc Pesticides misc Mosquitoes misc Parasitic diseases misc Infections The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
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title	The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
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title_full	The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
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title_sort	prevalence of plasmodium falciparum in sub-saharan africa since 1900
title_auth	The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
abstract	Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.
abstractGer	Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.
abstract_unstemmed	Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years1,2 or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions3. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.
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title_short	The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
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author2	Benn Sartorius David Kyalo Joseph Maina Punam Amratia Clara W Mundia Philip Bejon Abdisalan M Noor
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The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900

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