Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass mo...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Nakamura, Jennifer [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Rechteinformationen: |
Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Journal of geophysical research / D - Washington, DC : Union, 1984, 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:122 ; year:2017 ; number:18 ; pages:9721-9744 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1002/2017JD027007 |
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| 520 | |a Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii | ||
| 540 | |a Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a typhoons | |
| 650 | 4 | |a tracks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a climate change | |
| 650 | 4 | |a cluster analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a tropical cyclones | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cyclones | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Data processing | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate change | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate warming | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climates | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Statistical analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Identification | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Storms | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Storm tracks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hurricanes | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Tropical cyclone tracks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Tropical environment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Coriolis force | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Probability theory | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Equator | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cluster analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cyclone tracks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Future climates | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Camargo, Suzana J |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sobel, Adam H |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Henderson, Naomi |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Emanuel, Kerry A |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kumar, Arun |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a LaRow, Timothy E |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Murakami, Hiroyuki |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Roberts, Malcolm J |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Scoccimarro, Enrico |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vidale, Pier Luigi |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Hui |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wehner, Michael F |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhao, Ming |4 oth | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Journal of geophysical research / D |d Washington, DC : Union, 1984 |g 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 |w (DE-627)130444391 |w (DE-600)710256-2 |w (DE-576)015978818 |x 2169-897X |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:122 |g year:2017 |g number:18 |g pages:9721-9744 |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 |3 Volltext |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |u http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract |
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10.1002/2017JD027007 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC199784852X (DE-599)GBVOLC199784852X (PRQ)p1016-f5140b14f6747199cd403698899748c5e9f1535a52502ede2a935e710f4dc1970 (KEY)0137985220170000122001809721westernnorthpacifictropicalcyclonemodeltracksinpre DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB Nakamura, Jennifer verfasserin aut Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. typhoons tracks climate change cluster analysis tropical cyclones Cyclones Data processing Climate models Climate change Climate warming Climates Climate Statistical analysis Identification Storms Models Storm tracks Hurricanes Tropical cyclone tracks Tropical environment Coriolis force Probability theory Equator Cluster analysis Cyclone tracks Future climates Camargo, Suzana J oth Sobel, Adam H oth Henderson, Naomi oth Emanuel, Kerry A oth Kumar, Arun oth LaRow, Timothy E oth Murakami, Hiroyuki oth Roberts, Malcolm J oth Scoccimarro, Enrico oth Vidale, Pier Luigi oth Wang, Hui oth Wehner, Michael F oth Zhao, Ming oth Enthalten in Journal of geophysical research / D Washington, DC : Union, 1984 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 (DE-627)130444391 (DE-600)710256-2 (DE-576)015978818 2169-897X nnns volume:122 year:2017 number:18 pages:9721-9744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 AR 122 2017 18 9721-9744 |
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10.1002/2017JD027007 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC199784852X (DE-599)GBVOLC199784852X (PRQ)p1016-f5140b14f6747199cd403698899748c5e9f1535a52502ede2a935e710f4dc1970 (KEY)0137985220170000122001809721westernnorthpacifictropicalcyclonemodeltracksinpre DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB Nakamura, Jennifer verfasserin aut Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. typhoons tracks climate change cluster analysis tropical cyclones Cyclones Data processing Climate models Climate change Climate warming Climates Climate Statistical analysis Identification Storms Models Storm tracks Hurricanes Tropical cyclone tracks Tropical environment Coriolis force Probability theory Equator Cluster analysis Cyclone tracks Future climates Camargo, Suzana J oth Sobel, Adam H oth Henderson, Naomi oth Emanuel, Kerry A oth Kumar, Arun oth LaRow, Timothy E oth Murakami, Hiroyuki oth Roberts, Malcolm J oth Scoccimarro, Enrico oth Vidale, Pier Luigi oth Wang, Hui oth Wehner, Michael F oth Zhao, Ming oth Enthalten in Journal of geophysical research / D Washington, DC : Union, 1984 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 (DE-627)130444391 (DE-600)710256-2 (DE-576)015978818 2169-897X nnns volume:122 year:2017 number:18 pages:9721-9744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 AR 122 2017 18 9721-9744 |
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10.1002/2017JD027007 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC199784852X (DE-599)GBVOLC199784852X (PRQ)p1016-f5140b14f6747199cd403698899748c5e9f1535a52502ede2a935e710f4dc1970 (KEY)0137985220170000122001809721westernnorthpacifictropicalcyclonemodeltracksinpre DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB Nakamura, Jennifer verfasserin aut Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. typhoons tracks climate change cluster analysis tropical cyclones Cyclones Data processing Climate models Climate change Climate warming Climates Climate Statistical analysis Identification Storms Models Storm tracks Hurricanes Tropical cyclone tracks Tropical environment Coriolis force Probability theory Equator Cluster analysis Cyclone tracks Future climates Camargo, Suzana J oth Sobel, Adam H oth Henderson, Naomi oth Emanuel, Kerry A oth Kumar, Arun oth LaRow, Timothy E oth Murakami, Hiroyuki oth Roberts, Malcolm J oth Scoccimarro, Enrico oth Vidale, Pier Luigi oth Wang, Hui oth Wehner, Michael F oth Zhao, Ming oth Enthalten in Journal of geophysical research / D Washington, DC : Union, 1984 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 (DE-627)130444391 (DE-600)710256-2 (DE-576)015978818 2169-897X nnns volume:122 year:2017 number:18 pages:9721-9744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 AR 122 2017 18 9721-9744 |
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10.1002/2017JD027007 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC199784852X (DE-599)GBVOLC199784852X (PRQ)p1016-f5140b14f6747199cd403698899748c5e9f1535a52502ede2a935e710f4dc1970 (KEY)0137985220170000122001809721westernnorthpacifictropicalcyclonemodeltracksinpre DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB Nakamura, Jennifer verfasserin aut Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. typhoons tracks climate change cluster analysis tropical cyclones Cyclones Data processing Climate models Climate change Climate warming Climates Climate Statistical analysis Identification Storms Models Storm tracks Hurricanes Tropical cyclone tracks Tropical environment Coriolis force Probability theory Equator Cluster analysis Cyclone tracks Future climates Camargo, Suzana J oth Sobel, Adam H oth Henderson, Naomi oth Emanuel, Kerry A oth Kumar, Arun oth LaRow, Timothy E oth Murakami, Hiroyuki oth Roberts, Malcolm J oth Scoccimarro, Enrico oth Vidale, Pier Luigi oth Wang, Hui oth Wehner, Michael F oth Zhao, Ming oth Enthalten in Journal of geophysical research / D Washington, DC : Union, 1984 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 (DE-627)130444391 (DE-600)710256-2 (DE-576)015978818 2169-897X nnns volume:122 year:2017 number:18 pages:9721-9744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 AR 122 2017 18 9721-9744 |
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10.1002/2017JD027007 doi PQ20171125 (DE-627)OLC199784852X (DE-599)GBVOLC199784852X (PRQ)p1016-f5140b14f6747199cd403698899748c5e9f1535a52502ede2a935e710f4dc1970 (KEY)0137985220170000122001809721westernnorthpacifictropicalcyclonemodeltracksinpre DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB Nakamura, Jennifer verfasserin aut Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. typhoons tracks climate change cluster analysis tropical cyclones Cyclones Data processing Climate models Climate change Climate warming Climates Climate Statistical analysis Identification Storms Models Storm tracks Hurricanes Tropical cyclone tracks Tropical environment Coriolis force Probability theory Equator Cluster analysis Cyclone tracks Future climates Camargo, Suzana J oth Sobel, Adam H oth Henderson, Naomi oth Emanuel, Kerry A oth Kumar, Arun oth LaRow, Timothy E oth Murakami, Hiroyuki oth Roberts, Malcolm J oth Scoccimarro, Enrico oth Vidale, Pier Luigi oth Wang, Hui oth Wehner, Michael F oth Zhao, Ming oth Enthalten in Journal of geophysical research / D Washington, DC : Union, 1984 122(2017), 18, Seite 9721-9744 (DE-627)130444391 (DE-600)710256-2 (DE-576)015978818 2169-897X nnns volume:122 year:2017 number:18 pages:9721-9744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 AR 122 2017 18 9721-9744 |
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Nakamura, Jennifer @@aut@@ Camargo, Suzana J @@oth@@ Sobel, Adam H @@oth@@ Henderson, Naomi @@oth@@ Emanuel, Kerry A @@oth@@ Kumar, Arun @@oth@@ LaRow, Timothy E @@oth@@ Murakami, Hiroyuki @@oth@@ Roberts, Malcolm J @@oth@@ Scoccimarro, Enrico @@oth@@ Vidale, Pier Luigi @@oth@@ Wang, Hui @@oth@@ Wehner, Michael F @@oth@@ Zhao, Ming @@oth@@ |
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Nakamura, Jennifer ddc 550 misc typhoons misc tracks misc climate change misc cluster analysis misc tropical cyclones misc Cyclones misc Data processing misc Climate models misc Climate change misc Climate warming misc Climates misc Climate misc Statistical analysis misc Identification misc Storms misc Models misc Storm tracks misc Hurricanes misc Tropical cyclone tracks misc Tropical environment misc Coriolis force misc Probability theory misc Equator misc Cluster analysis misc Cyclone tracks misc Future climates Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates |
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western north pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates |
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Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates |
| abstract |
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii |
| abstractGer |
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii |
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| title_short |
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates |
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027007/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1950472488 |
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Camargo, Suzana J Sobel, Adam H Henderson, Naomi Emanuel, Kerry A Kumar, Arun LaRow, Timothy E Murakami, Hiroyuki Roberts, Malcolm J Scoccimarro, Enrico Vidale, Pier Luigi Wang, Hui Wehner, Michael F Zhao, Ming |
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Camargo, Suzana J Sobel, Adam H Henderson, Naomi Emanuel, Kerry A Kumar, Arun LaRow, Timothy E Murakami, Hiroyuki Roberts, Malcolm J Scoccimarro, Enrico Vidale, Pier Luigi Wang, Hui Wehner, Michael F Zhao, Ming |
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The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks' characteristics in two multimodel data sets are compared with observed tracks Changes in TC tracks under a warming climate are analyzed Track changes: a northward shift in the most common track type and an eastward shift in the tracks that can potentially affect Hawaii</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="540" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. 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