Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	García Molinos, Jorge [verfasserIn] Takao, Shintaro Kumagai, Naoki H Poloczanska, Elvira S Burrows, Michael T Fujii, Masahiko Yamano, Hiroya

Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2017

Rechteinformationen:	Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Schlagwörter:	protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Global change biology - Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995, 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:23 ; year:2017 ; number:10 ; pages:4440-4452

Links:	Volltext Link aufrufen Link aufrufen

DOI / URN:	10.1111/gcb.13665

Katalog-ID:	OLC1998357732

Internformat


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520			\|a Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources.
540			\|a Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
650		4	\|a protected areas
650		4	\|a conservation
650		4	\|a connectivity
650		4	\|a climate analogues
650		4	\|a stability
650		4	\|a ecological coherence
650		4	\|a climate change
650		4	\|a Japan
650		4	\|a Range extension
650		4	\|a Variability
650		4	\|a Coastal environments
650		4	\|a Ecosystems
650		4	\|a Terrestrial environments
650		4	\|a Stability analysis
650		4	\|a Climate change
650		4	\|a Climatic changes
650		4	\|a Anthropogenic factors
650		4	\|a Risks
650		4	\|a Promoters
650		4	\|a Fresh water
650		4	\|a Biota
650		4	\|a Swaths
650		4	\|a Protected areas
650		4	\|a Marine ecosystems
650		4	\|a Species
650		4	\|a Threat evaluation
650		4	\|a Policies
650		4	\|a Risk analysis
650		4	\|a Adaptations
650		4	\|a Marine protected areas
650		4	\|a Landscape
650		4	\|a Climates
650		4	\|a Climate
650		4	\|a Archipelagoes
650		4	\|a Protection
650		4	\|a Ecological risk assessment
650		4	\|a Stability
650		4	\|a Aquatic ecosystems
650		4	\|a Inland water environment
650		4	\|a Dynamics
650		4	\|a Ocean currents
650		4	\|a Biological data
650		4	\|a Environmental risk
650		4	\|a Latitudinal variations
650		4	\|a Marine parks
650		4	\|a Conservation
650		4	\|a Spatial discrimination
700	1		\|a Takao, Shintaro \|4 oth
700	1		\|a Kumagai, Naoki H \|4 oth
700	1		\|a Poloczanska, Elvira S \|4 oth
700	1		\|a Burrows, Michael T \|4 oth
700	1		\|a Fujii, Masahiko \|4 oth
700	1		\|a Yamano, Hiroya \|4 oth
773	0	8	\|i Enthalten in \|t Global change biology \|d Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 \|g 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 \|w (DE-627)18815499X \|w (DE-600)1281439-8 \|w (DE-576)048525634 \|x 1354-1013 \|7 nnns
773	1	8	\|g volume:23 \|g year:2017 \|g number:10 \|g pages:4440-4452
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allfields	10.1111/gcb.13665 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998357732 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998357732 (PRQ)c1675-85553e2418b4ffdd4d7539ac1d2a1d812cd87df3bfaa63ae5acbd694cb448d940 (KEY)0265675220170000023001004440improvingtheinterpretabilityofclimatelandscapemetr DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 DNB BIODIV fid García Molinos, Jorge verfasserin aut Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination Takao, Shintaro oth Kumagai, Naoki H oth Poloczanska, Elvira S oth Burrows, Michael T oth Fujii, Masahiko oth Yamano, Hiroya oth Enthalten in Global change biology Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 (DE-627)18815499X (DE-600)1281439-8 (DE-576)048525634 1354-1013 nnns volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 23 2017 10 4440-4452
spelling	10.1111/gcb.13665 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998357732 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998357732 (PRQ)c1675-85553e2418b4ffdd4d7539ac1d2a1d812cd87df3bfaa63ae5acbd694cb448d940 (KEY)0265675220170000023001004440improvingtheinterpretabilityofclimatelandscapemetr DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 DNB BIODIV fid García Molinos, Jorge verfasserin aut Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination Takao, Shintaro oth Kumagai, Naoki H oth Poloczanska, Elvira S oth Burrows, Michael T oth Fujii, Masahiko oth Yamano, Hiroya oth Enthalten in Global change biology Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 (DE-627)18815499X (DE-600)1281439-8 (DE-576)048525634 1354-1013 nnns volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 23 2017 10 4440-4452
allfields_unstemmed	10.1111/gcb.13665 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998357732 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998357732 (PRQ)c1675-85553e2418b4ffdd4d7539ac1d2a1d812cd87df3bfaa63ae5acbd694cb448d940 (KEY)0265675220170000023001004440improvingtheinterpretabilityofclimatelandscapemetr DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 DNB BIODIV fid García Molinos, Jorge verfasserin aut Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination Takao, Shintaro oth Kumagai, Naoki H oth Poloczanska, Elvira S oth Burrows, Michael T oth Fujii, Masahiko oth Yamano, Hiroya oth Enthalten in Global change biology Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 (DE-627)18815499X (DE-600)1281439-8 (DE-576)048525634 1354-1013 nnns volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 23 2017 10 4440-4452
allfieldsGer	10.1111/gcb.13665 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998357732 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998357732 (PRQ)c1675-85553e2418b4ffdd4d7539ac1d2a1d812cd87df3bfaa63ae5acbd694cb448d940 (KEY)0265675220170000023001004440improvingtheinterpretabilityofclimatelandscapemetr DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 DNB BIODIV fid García Molinos, Jorge verfasserin aut Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination Takao, Shintaro oth Kumagai, Naoki H oth Poloczanska, Elvira S oth Burrows, Michael T oth Fujii, Masahiko oth Yamano, Hiroya oth Enthalten in Global change biology Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 (DE-627)18815499X (DE-600)1281439-8 (DE-576)048525634 1354-1013 nnns volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 23 2017 10 4440-4452
allfieldsSound	10.1111/gcb.13665 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998357732 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998357732 (PRQ)c1675-85553e2418b4ffdd4d7539ac1d2a1d812cd87df3bfaa63ae5acbd694cb448d940 (KEY)0265675220170000023001004440improvingtheinterpretabilityofclimatelandscapemetr DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 DNB BIODIV fid García Molinos, Jorge verfasserin aut Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources. Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination Takao, Shintaro oth Kumagai, Naoki H oth Poloczanska, Elvira S oth Burrows, Michael T oth Fujii, Masahiko oth Yamano, Hiroya oth Enthalten in Global change biology Oxford [u.a.] : Blackwell Science, 1995 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 (DE-627)18815499X (DE-600)1281439-8 (DE-576)048525634 1354-1013 nnns volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-PHA SSG-OLC-DE-84 SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4219 AR 23 2017 10 4440-4452
language	English
source	Enthalten in Global change biology 23(2017), 10, Seite 4440-4452 volume:23 year:2017 number:10 pages:4440-4452
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topic_facet	protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination
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author	García Molinos, Jorge
spellingShingle	García Molinos, Jorge ddc 570 fid BIODIV misc protected areas misc conservation misc connectivity misc climate analogues misc stability misc ecological coherence misc climate change misc Japan misc Range extension misc Variability misc Coastal environments misc Ecosystems misc Terrestrial environments misc Stability analysis misc Climate change misc Climatic changes misc Anthropogenic factors misc Risks misc Promoters misc Fresh water misc Biota misc Swaths misc Protected areas misc Marine ecosystems misc Species misc Threat evaluation misc Policies misc Risk analysis misc Adaptations misc Marine protected areas misc Landscape misc Climates misc Climate misc Archipelagoes misc Protection misc Ecological risk assessment misc Stability misc Aquatic ecosystems misc Inland water environment misc Dynamics misc Ocean currents misc Biological data misc Environmental risk misc Latitudinal variations misc Marine parks misc Conservation misc Spatial discrimination Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
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topic_title	570 DNB BIODIV fid Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas protected areas conservation connectivity climate analogues stability ecological coherence climate change Japan Range extension Variability Coastal environments Ecosystems Terrestrial environments Stability analysis Climate change Climatic changes Anthropogenic factors Risks Promoters Fresh water Biota Swaths Protected areas Marine ecosystems Species Threat evaluation Policies Risk analysis Adaptations Marine protected areas Landscape Climates Climate Archipelagoes Protection Ecological risk assessment Stability Aquatic ecosystems Inland water environment Dynamics Ocean currents Biological data Environmental risk Latitudinal variations Marine parks Conservation Spatial discrimination
topic	ddc 570 fid BIODIV misc protected areas misc conservation misc connectivity misc climate analogues misc stability misc ecological coherence misc climate change misc Japan misc Range extension misc Variability misc Coastal environments misc Ecosystems misc Terrestrial environments misc Stability analysis misc Climate change misc Climatic changes misc Anthropogenic factors misc Risks misc Promoters misc Fresh water misc Biota misc Swaths misc Protected areas misc Marine ecosystems misc Species misc Threat evaluation misc Policies misc Risk analysis misc Adaptations misc Marine protected areas misc Landscape misc Climates misc Climate misc Archipelagoes misc Protection misc Ecological risk assessment misc Stability misc Aquatic ecosystems misc Inland water environment misc Dynamics misc Ocean currents misc Biological data misc Environmental risk misc Latitudinal variations misc Marine parks misc Conservation misc Spatial discrimination
topic_unstemmed	ddc 570 fid BIODIV misc protected areas misc conservation misc connectivity misc climate analogues misc stability misc ecological coherence misc climate change misc Japan misc Range extension misc Variability misc Coastal environments misc Ecosystems misc Terrestrial environments misc Stability analysis misc Climate change misc Climatic changes misc Anthropogenic factors misc Risks misc Promoters misc Fresh water misc Biota misc Swaths misc Protected areas misc Marine ecosystems misc Species misc Threat evaluation misc Policies misc Risk analysis misc Adaptations misc Marine protected areas misc Landscape misc Climates misc Climate misc Archipelagoes misc Protection misc Ecological risk assessment misc Stability misc Aquatic ecosystems misc Inland water environment misc Dynamics misc Ocean currents misc Biological data misc Environmental risk misc Latitudinal variations misc Marine parks misc Conservation misc Spatial discrimination
topic_browse	ddc 570 fid BIODIV misc protected areas misc conservation misc connectivity misc climate analogues misc stability misc ecological coherence misc climate change misc Japan misc Range extension misc Variability misc Coastal environments misc Ecosystems misc Terrestrial environments misc Stability analysis misc Climate change misc Climatic changes misc Anthropogenic factors misc Risks misc Promoters misc Fresh water misc Biota misc Swaths misc Protected areas misc Marine ecosystems misc Species misc Threat evaluation misc Policies misc Risk analysis misc Adaptations misc Marine protected areas misc Landscape misc Climates misc Climate misc Archipelagoes misc Protection misc Ecological risk assessment misc Stability misc Aquatic ecosystems misc Inland water environment misc Dynamics misc Ocean currents misc Biological data misc Environmental risk misc Latitudinal variations misc Marine parks misc Conservation misc Spatial discrimination
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title	Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
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title_full	Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
author_sort	García Molinos, Jorge
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title_sort	improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: an ecological risk analysis of japan's marine protected areas
title_auth	Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
abstract	Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources.
abstractGer	Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources.
abstract_unstemmed	Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources.
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container_issue	10
title_short	Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
url	http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13665 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13665/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1937412582
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author2	Takao, Shintaro Kumagai, Naoki H Poloczanska, Elvira S Burrows, Michael T Fujii, Masahiko Yamano, Hiroya
author2Str	Takao, Shintaro Kumagai, Naoki H Poloczanska, Elvira S Burrows, Michael T Fujii, Masahiko Yamano, Hiroya
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up_date	2024-07-04T04:49:52.570Z
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As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas ( MPA s). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. Climate landscape metrics offer useful first‐cut assessments of the potential ecological implications from climate change. However, being simple descriptors of changes in climate conditions, direct ecological attribution is problematic if not framed in an ecologically coherent context. Doing so will facilitate interpretation and ease their incorporation into conservation and management of natural resources.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="540" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Nutzungsrecht: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">protected areas</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">conservation</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">connectivity</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">climate analogues</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">stability</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">ecological coherence</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">climate change</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield 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Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

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