Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
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| Autor*in: |
L'Heureux, Michelle L [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Rechteinformationen: |
Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. |
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| Schlagwörter: |
North American Multimodel Ensemble |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Geophysical research letters - Washington, DC : Union, 1974, 44(2017), 22 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:44 ; year:2017 ; number:22 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1002/2017GL074854 |
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| 520 | |a Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident | ||
| 540 | |a Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a North American Multimodel Ensemble | |
| 650 | 4 | |a El Niño–Southern Oscillation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Arctic Oscillation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate prediction | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Correlations | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Temperature | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Correlation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Polar environments | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Southern Oscillation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ocean currents | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic variability | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Predictability | |
| 650 | 4 | |a El Nino | |
| 650 | 4 | |a El Nino-Southern Oscillation event | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Anomalies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prediction models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Northern Hemisphere | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Predictions | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Weather forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a El Nino phenomena | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tippett, Michael K |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kumar, Arun |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Butler, Amy H |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ciasto, Laura M |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ding, Qinghua |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Harnos, Kirstin J |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Johnson, Nathaniel C |4 oth | |
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10.1002/2017GL074854 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998807134 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998807134 (PRQ)p1008-d1f7c65675b10833a431c7d1c637ca209f21b6d62bef4940d9e9f0e33150bff50 (KEY)0026932820170000044002200000strongrelationsbetweenensoandthearcticoscillationi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.70 bkl L'Heureux, Michelle L verfasserin aut Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. North American Multimodel Ensemble El Niño–Southern Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Climate models Climate prediction Climate Correlations Temperature Correlation Polar environments Southern Oscillation Ocean currents Climatic variability Predictability El Nino El Nino-Southern Oscillation event Climatic models Anomalies Prediction models Northern Hemisphere Predictions Weather forecasting El Nino phenomena Tippett, Michael K oth Kumar, Arun oth Butler, Amy H oth Ciasto, Laura M oth Ding, Qinghua oth Harnos, Kirstin J oth Johnson, Nathaniel C oth Enthalten in Geophysical research letters Washington, DC : Union, 1974 44(2017), 22 (DE-627)129095109 (DE-600)7403-2 (DE-576)01443122X 0094-8276 nnns volume:44 year:2017 number:22 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074854 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074854/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1979350817 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2279 38.70 AVZ AR 44 2017 22 |
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10.1002/2017GL074854 doi PQ20171228 (DE-627)OLC1998807134 (DE-599)GBVOLC1998807134 (PRQ)p1008-d1f7c65675b10833a431c7d1c637ca209f21b6d62bef4940d9e9f0e33150bff50 (KEY)0026932820170000044002200000strongrelationsbetweenensoandthearcticoscillationi DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 DNB 38.70 bkl L'Heureux, Michelle L verfasserin aut Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident Nutzungsrecht: © 2017. American Geophysical Union. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. North American Multimodel Ensemble El Niño–Southern Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Climate models Climate prediction Climate Correlations Temperature Correlation Polar environments Southern Oscillation Ocean currents Climatic variability Predictability El Nino El Nino-Southern Oscillation event Climatic models Anomalies Prediction models Northern Hemisphere Predictions Weather forecasting El Nino phenomena Tippett, Michael K oth Kumar, Arun oth Butler, Amy H oth Ciasto, Laura M oth Ding, Qinghua oth Harnos, Kirstin J oth Johnson, Nathaniel C oth Enthalten in Geophysical research letters Washington, DC : Union, 1974 44(2017), 22 (DE-627)129095109 (DE-600)7403-2 (DE-576)01443122X 0094-8276 nnns volume:44 year:2017 number:22 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074854 Volltext http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074854/abstract https://search.proquest.com/docview/1979350817 GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_47 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2279 38.70 AVZ AR 44 2017 22 |
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L'Heureux, Michelle L ddc 550 bkl 38.70 misc North American Multimodel Ensemble misc El Niño–Southern Oscillation misc Arctic Oscillation misc Climate models misc Climate prediction misc Climate misc Correlations misc Temperature misc Correlation misc Polar environments misc Southern Oscillation misc Ocean currents misc Climatic variability misc Predictability misc El Nino misc El Nino-Southern Oscillation event misc Climatic models misc Anomalies misc Prediction models misc Northern Hemisphere misc Predictions misc Weather forecasting misc El Nino phenomena Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
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550 DNB 38.70 bkl Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble North American Multimodel Ensemble El Niño–Southern Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Climate models Climate prediction Climate Correlations Temperature Correlation Polar environments Southern Oscillation Ocean currents Climatic variability Predictability El Nino El Nino-Southern Oscillation event Climatic models Anomalies Prediction models Northern Hemisphere Predictions Weather forecasting El Nino phenomena |
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strong relations between enso and the arctic oscillation in the north american multimodel ensemble |
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Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident |
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident |
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. The Arctic Oscillation is skillfully predicted by the North American Multimodel Ensemble up to 7 months in advance The Arctic Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are strongly related in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions A weaker relation in the observations implies that the models are overconfident |
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Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
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