A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies
Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors a...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Horvath, K. [verfasserIn] |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
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2008 |
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Anmerkung: |
© Springer-Verlag 2008 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Meteorology and atmospheric physics - Springer-Verlag, 1986, 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:103 ; year:2008 ; number:1-4 ; day:20 ; month:08 ; pages:161-171 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC2030086401 |
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520 | |a Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. | ||
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10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2030086401 (DE-He213)s00703-008-0324-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Horvath, K. verfasserin aut A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies 2008 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag 2008 Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. Cyclone Potential Vorticity Cyclone Track Cyclone Centre Cyclone Intensity Ivančan-Picek, B. aut Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics Springer-Verlag, 1986 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 (DE-627)129582492 (DE-600)232907-4 (DE-576)015076032 0177-7971 nnns volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4029 RA 1000 AR 103 2008 1-4 20 08 161-171 |
spelling |
10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2030086401 (DE-He213)s00703-008-0324-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Horvath, K. verfasserin aut A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies 2008 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag 2008 Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. Cyclone Potential Vorticity Cyclone Track Cyclone Centre Cyclone Intensity Ivančan-Picek, B. aut Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics Springer-Verlag, 1986 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 (DE-627)129582492 (DE-600)232907-4 (DE-576)015076032 0177-7971 nnns volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4029 RA 1000 AR 103 2008 1-4 20 08 161-171 |
allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2030086401 (DE-He213)s00703-008-0324-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Horvath, K. verfasserin aut A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies 2008 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag 2008 Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. Cyclone Potential Vorticity Cyclone Track Cyclone Centre Cyclone Intensity Ivančan-Picek, B. aut Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics Springer-Verlag, 1986 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 (DE-627)129582492 (DE-600)232907-4 (DE-576)015076032 0177-7971 nnns volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4029 RA 1000 AR 103 2008 1-4 20 08 161-171 |
allfieldsGer |
10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2030086401 (DE-He213)s00703-008-0324-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Horvath, K. verfasserin aut A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies 2008 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag 2008 Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. Cyclone Potential Vorticity Cyclone Track Cyclone Centre Cyclone Intensity Ivančan-Picek, B. aut Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics Springer-Verlag, 1986 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 (DE-627)129582492 (DE-600)232907-4 (DE-576)015076032 0177-7971 nnns volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4029 RA 1000 AR 103 2008 1-4 20 08 161-171 |
allfieldsSound |
10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2030086401 (DE-He213)s00703-008-0324-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Horvath, K. verfasserin aut A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies 2008 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag 2008 Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. Cyclone Potential Vorticity Cyclone Track Cyclone Centre Cyclone Intensity Ivančan-Picek, B. aut Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics Springer-Verlag, 1986 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 (DE-627)129582492 (DE-600)232907-4 (DE-576)015076032 0177-7971 nnns volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0324-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4029 RA 1000 AR 103 2008 1-4 20 08 161-171 |
language |
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Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 |
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Enthalten in Meteorology and atmospheric physics 103(2008), 1-4 vom: 20. Aug., Seite 161-171 volume:103 year:2008 number:1-4 day:20 month:08 pages:161-171 |
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a numerical analysis of a deep mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies |
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A numerical analysis of a deep Mediterranean lee cyclone: sensitivity to mesoscale potential vorticity anomalies |
abstract |
Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. © Springer-Verlag 2008 |
abstractGer |
Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. © Springer-Verlag 2008 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Summary A 12–15 November 2004 cyclone on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains and the related occurrence of severe bora along the eastern Adriatic coast are numerically analyzed using the MM5 mesoscale model. Motivated by the fact that sub-synoptic scales are more sensitive to initialization errors and dominate forecast error growth, this study is designed in order to assess the sensitivity of the mesoscale forecast to the intensity of mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. Five sensitivity simulations are performed after subtracting the selected anomalies from the initial conditions, allowing for the analysis of the cyclone intensity and track, and additionally, the associated severe bora in the Adriatic. The results of the ensemble show that the cyclone is highly sensitive to the exact details of the upper-level dynamic forcing. The spread of cyclone intensities is the greatest in the mature phase of the cyclone lifecycle, due to different cyclone advection speeds towards the Mediterranean. However, the cyclone tracks diffluence appears to be the greatest during the cyclone movement out of the Atlas lee, prior to the mature stage of cyclone development, most likely due to the predominant upper-level steering control and its influence on the thermal anomaly creation in the mountain lee. Furthermore, it is quantitatively shown that the southern Adriatic bora is more sensitive to cyclone presence in the Mediterranean then bora in the northern Adriatic, due to unequal influence of the cyclone on the cross-mountain pressure gradient formation. The orographically induced pressure perturbation is strongly correlated with bora in the northern and to a lesser extent in the southern Adriatic, implying the existence of additional controlling mechanisms to bora in the southern part of the basin. In addition, it is shown that the bora intensity in the southern Adriatic is highly sensitive to the precise sub-synoptic pressure distribution in the cyclone itself, indicating a close relationship between the skillful forecasting of Mediterranean cyclones and bora in the southern Adriatic. © Springer-Verlag 2008 |
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