The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement
Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil f...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Keppo, Ilkka [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2011 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Environmental modeling & assessment - Springer Netherlands, 1996, 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:17 ; year:2011 ; number:1-2 ; day:28 ; month:06 ; pages:177-191 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2036519040 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. | ||
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10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 doi (DE-627)OLC2036519040 (DE-He213)s10666-011-9283-1-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 690 333.7 VZ 12 ssgn 43.03 bkl Keppo, Ilkka verfasserin aut The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. Climate change Energy system modeling Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Mitigation target Storage potential Uncertainty van der Zwaan, Bob aut Enthalten in Environmental modeling & assessment Springer Netherlands, 1996 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 (DE-627)214127214 (DE-600)1332060-9 (DE-576)481324054 1420-2026 nnns volume:17 year:2011 number:1-2 day:28 month:06 pages:177-191 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4012 43.03 VZ AR 17 2011 1-2 28 06 177-191 |
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10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 doi (DE-627)OLC2036519040 (DE-He213)s10666-011-9283-1-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 690 333.7 VZ 12 ssgn 43.03 bkl Keppo, Ilkka verfasserin aut The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. Climate change Energy system modeling Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Mitigation target Storage potential Uncertainty van der Zwaan, Bob aut Enthalten in Environmental modeling & assessment Springer Netherlands, 1996 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 (DE-627)214127214 (DE-600)1332060-9 (DE-576)481324054 1420-2026 nnns volume:17 year:2011 number:1-2 day:28 month:06 pages:177-191 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4012 43.03 VZ AR 17 2011 1-2 28 06 177-191 |
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10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 doi (DE-627)OLC2036519040 (DE-He213)s10666-011-9283-1-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 690 333.7 VZ 12 ssgn 43.03 bkl Keppo, Ilkka verfasserin aut The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. Climate change Energy system modeling Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Mitigation target Storage potential Uncertainty van der Zwaan, Bob aut Enthalten in Environmental modeling & assessment Springer Netherlands, 1996 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 (DE-627)214127214 (DE-600)1332060-9 (DE-576)481324054 1420-2026 nnns volume:17 year:2011 number:1-2 day:28 month:06 pages:177-191 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4012 43.03 VZ AR 17 2011 1-2 28 06 177-191 |
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10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 doi (DE-627)OLC2036519040 (DE-He213)s10666-011-9283-1-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 690 333.7 VZ 12 ssgn 43.03 bkl Keppo, Ilkka verfasserin aut The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. Climate change Energy system modeling Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Mitigation target Storage potential Uncertainty van der Zwaan, Bob aut Enthalten in Environmental modeling & assessment Springer Netherlands, 1996 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 (DE-627)214127214 (DE-600)1332060-9 (DE-576)481324054 1420-2026 nnns volume:17 year:2011 number:1-2 day:28 month:06 pages:177-191 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4012 43.03 VZ AR 17 2011 1-2 28 06 177-191 |
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10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 doi (DE-627)OLC2036519040 (DE-He213)s10666-011-9283-1-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 690 333.7 VZ 12 ssgn 43.03 bkl Keppo, Ilkka verfasserin aut The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. Climate change Energy system modeling Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Mitigation target Storage potential Uncertainty van der Zwaan, Bob aut Enthalten in Environmental modeling & assessment Springer Netherlands, 1996 17(2011), 1-2 vom: 28. Juni, Seite 177-191 (DE-627)214127214 (DE-600)1332060-9 (DE-576)481324054 1420-2026 nnns volume:17 year:2011 number:1-2 day:28 month:06 pages:177-191 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_26 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_4012 43.03 VZ AR 17 2011 1-2 28 06 177-191 |
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The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement |
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The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement |
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Keppo, Ilkka |
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Keppo, Ilkka van der Zwaan, Bob |
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the impact of uncertainty in climate targets and $ co_{2} $ storage availability on long-term emissions abatement |
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The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement |
| abstract |
Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured $ CO_{2} $. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep $ CO_{2} $ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and $ CO_{2} $ Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement |
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