Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure
Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for mo...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Oliver, J. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Natural hazards - Springer Netherlands, 1988, 91(2017), 1 vom: 21. Nov., Seite 287-307 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:91 ; year:2017 ; number:1 ; day:21 ; month:11 ; pages:287-307 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2053683937 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. | ||
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10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053683937 (DE-He213)s11069-017-3126-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Oliver, J. verfasserin aut Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. Aggradation Flood risk Dike failure MIKE1D MIKE SHE Qin, X. S. aut Larsen, O. aut Meadows, M. aut Fielding, M. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 91(2017), 1 vom: 21. Nov., Seite 287-307 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:91 year:2017 number:1 day:21 month:11 pages:287-307 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 91 2017 1 21 11 287-307 |
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10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053683937 (DE-He213)s11069-017-3126-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Oliver, J. verfasserin aut Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. Aggradation Flood risk Dike failure MIKE1D MIKE SHE Qin, X. S. aut Larsen, O. aut Meadows, M. aut Fielding, M. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 91(2017), 1 vom: 21. Nov., Seite 287-307 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:91 year:2017 number:1 day:21 month:11 pages:287-307 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 91 2017 1 21 11 287-307 |
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10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053683937 (DE-He213)s11069-017-3126-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Oliver, J. verfasserin aut Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. Aggradation Flood risk Dike failure MIKE1D MIKE SHE Qin, X. S. aut Larsen, O. aut Meadows, M. aut Fielding, M. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 91(2017), 1 vom: 21. Nov., Seite 287-307 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:91 year:2017 number:1 day:21 month:11 pages:287-307 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 91 2017 1 21 11 287-307 |
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10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053683937 (DE-He213)s11069-017-3126-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Oliver, J. verfasserin aut Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. Aggradation Flood risk Dike failure MIKE1D MIKE SHE Qin, X. S. aut Larsen, O. aut Meadows, M. aut Fielding, M. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 91(2017), 1 vom: 21. Nov., Seite 287-307 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:91 year:2017 number:1 day:21 month:11 pages:287-307 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3126-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 91 2017 1 21 11 287-307 |
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Oliver, J. |
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probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure |
| title_auth |
Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure |
| abstract |
Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2017 |
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Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure |
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Qin, X. S. Larsen, O. Meadows, M. Fielding, M. |
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