Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes
Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous resear...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Kougkoulos, Ioannis [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2018 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2018 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Natural hazards - Springer Netherlands, 1988, 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:94 ; year:2018 ; number:3 ; day:26 ; month:09 ; pages:1415-1438 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2053687177 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Bolivian Andes | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geohazards | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hydrodynamic modelling | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk assessment | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cook, Simon J. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Edwards, Laura A. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Clarke, Leon J. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Symeonakis, Elias |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dortch, Jason M. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nesbitt, Kathleen |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053687177 (DE-He213)s11069-018-3486-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Kougkoulos, Ioannis verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-5001-2961 aut Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. Bolivian Andes Geohazards Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) Hydrodynamic modelling Risk assessment Cook, Simon J. aut Edwards, Laura A. aut Clarke, Leon J. aut Symeonakis, Elias aut Dortch, Jason M. aut Nesbitt, Kathleen aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:94 year:2018 number:3 day:26 month:09 pages:1415-1438 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 94 2018 3 26 09 1415-1438 |
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10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053687177 (DE-He213)s11069-018-3486-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Kougkoulos, Ioannis verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-5001-2961 aut Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. Bolivian Andes Geohazards Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) Hydrodynamic modelling Risk assessment Cook, Simon J. aut Edwards, Laura A. aut Clarke, Leon J. aut Symeonakis, Elias aut Dortch, Jason M. aut Nesbitt, Kathleen aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:94 year:2018 number:3 day:26 month:09 pages:1415-1438 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 94 2018 3 26 09 1415-1438 |
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10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053687177 (DE-He213)s11069-018-3486-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Kougkoulos, Ioannis verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-5001-2961 aut Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. Bolivian Andes Geohazards Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) Hydrodynamic modelling Risk assessment Cook, Simon J. aut Edwards, Laura A. aut Clarke, Leon J. aut Symeonakis, Elias aut Dortch, Jason M. aut Nesbitt, Kathleen aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:94 year:2018 number:3 day:26 month:09 pages:1415-1438 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 94 2018 3 26 09 1415-1438 |
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10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053687177 (DE-He213)s11069-018-3486-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Kougkoulos, Ioannis verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-5001-2961 aut Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. Bolivian Andes Geohazards Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) Hydrodynamic modelling Risk assessment Cook, Simon J. aut Edwards, Laura A. aut Clarke, Leon J. aut Symeonakis, Elias aut Dortch, Jason M. aut Nesbitt, Kathleen aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:94 year:2018 number:3 day:26 month:09 pages:1415-1438 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 94 2018 3 26 09 1415-1438 |
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10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2053687177 (DE-He213)s11069-018-3486-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Kougkoulos, Ioannis verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-5001-2961 aut Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. Bolivian Andes Geohazards Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) Hydrodynamic modelling Risk assessment Cook, Simon J. aut Edwards, Laura A. aut Clarke, Leon J. aut Symeonakis, Elias aut Dortch, Jason M. aut Nesbitt, Kathleen aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 94(2018), 3 vom: 26. Sept., Seite 1415-1438 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:94 year:2018 number:3 day:26 month:09 pages:1415-1438 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT GBV_ILN_70 AR 94 2018 3 26 09 1415-1438 |
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Kougkoulos, Ioannis @@aut@@ Cook, Simon J. @@aut@@ Edwards, Laura A. @@aut@@ Clarke, Leon J. @@aut@@ Symeonakis, Elias @@aut@@ Dortch, Jason M. @@aut@@ Nesbitt, Kathleen @@aut@@ |
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modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the bolivian andes |
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Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes |
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Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. © The Author(s) 2018 |
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Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. © The Author(s) 2018 |
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Abstract The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers. © The Author(s) 2018 |
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