Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors
Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability d...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Yan, Baowei [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2013 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999, 28(2013), 2 vom: 19. Juni, Seite 359-368 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:28 ; year:2013 ; number:2 ; day:19 ; month:06 ; pages:359-368 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2058737172 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors |
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| 520 | |a Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Flood control operation risks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Inflow forecasting errors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Stochastic differential equation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guo, Shenglian |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Lu |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 doi (DE-627)OLC2058737172 (DE-He213)s00477-013-0756-4-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yan, Baowei verfasserin aut Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. Flood control operation risks Inflow forecasting errors Stochastic differential equation Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient Guo, Shenglian aut Chen, Lu aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 28(2013), 2 vom: 19. Juni, Seite 359-368 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:28 year:2013 number:2 day:19 month:06 pages:359-368 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 28 2013 2 19 06 359-368 |
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10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 doi (DE-627)OLC2058737172 (DE-He213)s00477-013-0756-4-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yan, Baowei verfasserin aut Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. Flood control operation risks Inflow forecasting errors Stochastic differential equation Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient Guo, Shenglian aut Chen, Lu aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 28(2013), 2 vom: 19. Juni, Seite 359-368 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:28 year:2013 number:2 day:19 month:06 pages:359-368 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 28 2013 2 19 06 359-368 |
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10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 doi (DE-627)OLC2058737172 (DE-He213)s00477-013-0756-4-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yan, Baowei verfasserin aut Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. Flood control operation risks Inflow forecasting errors Stochastic differential equation Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient Guo, Shenglian aut Chen, Lu aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 28(2013), 2 vom: 19. Juni, Seite 359-368 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:28 year:2013 number:2 day:19 month:06 pages:359-368 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 28 2013 2 19 06 359-368 |
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Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors |
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Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 |
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Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 |
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Abstract A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 |
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