Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China
Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and...
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| Autor*in: |
Yu, Zhongbo [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999, 32(2017), 1 vom: 13. Feb., Seite 1-16 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:32 ; year:2017 ; number:1 ; day:13 ; month:02 ; pages:1-16 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2058743733 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate change | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hydrologic regime | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Extreme hydrological events | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Gu, Huanghe |0 (orcid)0000-0002-7766-5700 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Jigan |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xia, Jun |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lu, Baohong |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2058743733 (DE-He213)s00477-017-1391-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yu, Zhongbo verfasserin aut Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. Climate change Hydrologic regime Extreme hydrological events CMIP5 Gu, Huanghe (orcid)0000-0002-7766-5700 aut Wang, Jigan aut Xia, Jun aut Lu, Baohong aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 32(2017), 1 vom: 13. Feb., Seite 1-16 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:32 year:2017 number:1 day:13 month:02 pages:1-16 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 32 2017 1 13 02 1-16 |
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10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2058743733 (DE-He213)s00477-017-1391-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yu, Zhongbo verfasserin aut Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. Climate change Hydrologic regime Extreme hydrological events CMIP5 Gu, Huanghe (orcid)0000-0002-7766-5700 aut Wang, Jigan aut Xia, Jun aut Lu, Baohong aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 32(2017), 1 vom: 13. Feb., Seite 1-16 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:32 year:2017 number:1 day:13 month:02 pages:1-16 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 32 2017 1 13 02 1-16 |
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10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2058743733 (DE-He213)s00477-017-1391-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ 550 VZ 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes bkl 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines bkl 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines bkl 52.23$jFluidtechnik bkl Yu, Zhongbo verfasserin aut Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. Climate change Hydrologic regime Extreme hydrological events CMIP5 Gu, Huanghe (orcid)0000-0002-7766-5700 aut Wang, Jigan aut Xia, Jun aut Lu, Baohong aut Enthalten in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999 32(2017), 1 vom: 13. Feb., Seite 1-16 (DE-627)269538283 (DE-600)1475430-7 (DE-576)077885473 1436-3240 nnns volume:32 year:2017 number:1 day:13 month:02 pages:1-16 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 43.03$jMethoden der Umweltforschung und des Umweltschutzes VZ 106416952 (DE-625)106416952 38.85$jHydrologie: Allgemeines VZ 106421905 (DE-625)106421905 58.50$jUmwelttechnik: Allgemeines VZ 10641707X (DE-625)10641707X 52.23$jFluidtechnik VZ 106419870 (DE-625)106419870 AR 32 2017 1 13 02 1-16 |
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effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the yangtze river basin, china |
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Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China |
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Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 |
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Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 |
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Abstract The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 |
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These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. 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