The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas
Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, w...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Bolgov, M. V. [verfasserIn] |
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Artikel |
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Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2005 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Water resources - Nauka/Interperiodica, 1974, 32(2005), 6 vom: Nov., Seite 605-610 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:32 ; year:2005 ; number:6 ; month:11 ; pages:605-610 |
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10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. | ||
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10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2060469503 (DE-He213)s11268-005-0078-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 VZ 14 ssgn Bolgov, M. V. verfasserin aut The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas 2005 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. Stochastic Model Coastal Zone Bayesian Approach Hydrological Regime Stochastic Variation Filimonova, M. K. aut Enthalten in Water resources Nauka/Interperiodica, 1974 32(2005), 6 vom: Nov., Seite 605-610 (DE-627)129431702 (DE-600)192813-2 (DE-576)014804026 0097-8078 nnns volume:32 year:2005 number:6 month:11 pages:605-610 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 32 2005 6 11 605-610 |
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10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2060469503 (DE-He213)s11268-005-0078-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 VZ 14 ssgn Bolgov, M. V. verfasserin aut The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas 2005 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. Stochastic Model Coastal Zone Bayesian Approach Hydrological Regime Stochastic Variation Filimonova, M. K. aut Enthalten in Water resources Nauka/Interperiodica, 1974 32(2005), 6 vom: Nov., Seite 605-610 (DE-627)129431702 (DE-600)192813-2 (DE-576)014804026 0097-8078 nnns volume:32 year:2005 number:6 month:11 pages:605-610 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 32 2005 6 11 605-610 |
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10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2060469503 (DE-He213)s11268-005-0078-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 VZ 14 ssgn Bolgov, M. V. verfasserin aut The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas 2005 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. Stochastic Model Coastal Zone Bayesian Approach Hydrological Regime Stochastic Variation Filimonova, M. K. aut Enthalten in Water resources Nauka/Interperiodica, 1974 32(2005), 6 vom: Nov., Seite 605-610 (DE-627)129431702 (DE-600)192813-2 (DE-576)014804026 0097-8078 nnns volume:32 year:2005 number:6 month:11 pages:605-610 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 32 2005 6 11 605-610 |
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10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2060469503 (DE-He213)s11268-005-0078-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 690 VZ 14 ssgn Bolgov, M. V. verfasserin aut The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas 2005 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. Stochastic Model Coastal Zone Bayesian Approach Hydrological Regime Stochastic Variation Filimonova, M. K. aut Enthalten in Water resources Nauka/Interperiodica, 1974 32(2005), 6 vom: Nov., Seite 605-610 (DE-627)129431702 (DE-600)192813-2 (DE-576)014804026 0097-8078 nnns volume:32 year:2005 number:6 month:11 pages:605-610 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11268-005-0078-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-ARC SSG-OLC-TEC SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 32 2005 6 11 605-610 |
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The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas |
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Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 |
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Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 |
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Abstract Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach. © MAIK "Nauka/Interperiodica" 2005 |
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The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas |
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