The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets
Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
van Vuuren, Detlef P. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2010 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Systematik: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 104(2010), 3-4 vom: 15. Dez., Seite 793-801 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:104 ; year:2010 ; number:3-4 ; day:15 ; month:12 ; pages:793-801 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2062603991 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. | ||
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10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2062603991 (DE-He213)s10584-010-0004-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets 2010 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. Emission Reduction Negative Emission Copenhagen Accord International Climate Policy Technology Assumption Riahi, Keywan aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 104(2010), 3-4 vom: 15. Dez., Seite 793-801 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:104 year:2010 number:3-4 day:15 month:12 pages:793-801 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 104 2010 3-4 15 12 793-801 |
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10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2062603991 (DE-He213)s10584-010-0004-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets 2010 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. Emission Reduction Negative Emission Copenhagen Accord International Climate Policy Technology Assumption Riahi, Keywan aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 104(2010), 3-4 vom: 15. Dez., Seite 793-801 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:104 year:2010 number:3-4 day:15 month:12 pages:793-801 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 104 2010 3-4 15 12 793-801 |
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| author |
van Vuuren, Detlef P. |
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the relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets |
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The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets |
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Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 |
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Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 |
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Abstract The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 |
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