Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099
Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Us...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Chun, K. P. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2012 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Systematik: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 113(2012), 3-4 vom: 03. Jan., Seite 639-661 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:113 ; year:2012 ; number:3-4 ; day:03 ; month:01 ; pages:639-661 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-011-0375-3 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2062608128 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Using principal components analysis, climate variables related to evaporation have been examined; results show significant differences in correlation structures between observed UK data and climate outputs from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM3). Although employing the GCM data directly in the Penman-Monteith combination equation appears to be practical for estimating current potential evaporation, this approach does not project realistic potential evaporation in the 2080s. A local calibration approach is taken to the derivation of an alternative empirical model for estimating potential evaporation based on GCM outputs, using the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework. This appears to provide a robust method for impacts assessment. From the GLM projections, the envisaged change in evaporation will be spatially variable across the UK. It is expected that the southern part of the UK will be more sensitive to the change in evaporation than the north. Moreover, in the 2080s, the range (variance) of the monthly potential evaporation appears to change more than the mean. | ||
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10.1007/s10584-011-0375-3 doi (DE-627)OLC2062608128 (DE-He213)s10584-011-0375-3-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Chun, K. P. verfasserin aut Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 2012 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Using principal components analysis, climate variables related to evaporation have been examined; results show significant differences in correlation structures between observed UK data and climate outputs from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM3). Although employing the GCM data directly in the Penman-Monteith combination equation appears to be practical for estimating current potential evaporation, this approach does not project realistic potential evaporation in the 2080s. A local calibration approach is taken to the derivation of an alternative empirical model for estimating potential evaporation based on GCM outputs, using the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework. This appears to provide a robust method for impacts assessment. From the GLM projections, the envisaged change in evaporation will be spatially variable across the UK. It is expected that the southern part of the UK will be more sensitive to the change in evaporation than the north. Moreover, in the 2080s, the range (variance) of the monthly potential evaporation appears to change more than the mean. Wind Speed Generalise Linear Model Statistical Downscaling Potential Evaporation Actual Evaporation Wheater, H. S. aut Onof, C. aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 113(2012), 3-4 vom: 03. Jan., Seite 639-661 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:113 year:2012 number:3-4 day:03 month:01 pages:639-661 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0375-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 113 2012 3-4 03 01 639-661 |
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Chun, K. P. |
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550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 Wind Speed Generalise Linear Model Statistical Downscaling Potential Evaporation Actual Evaporation |
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Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 |
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Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 |
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Chun, K. P. |
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Climatic change |
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Chun, K. P. Wheater, H. S. Onof, C. |
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projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the uk between 1950 and 2099 |
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Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 |
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Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Using principal components analysis, climate variables related to evaporation have been examined; results show significant differences in correlation structures between observed UK data and climate outputs from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM3). Although employing the GCM data directly in the Penman-Monteith combination equation appears to be practical for estimating current potential evaporation, this approach does not project realistic potential evaporation in the 2080s. A local calibration approach is taken to the derivation of an alternative empirical model for estimating potential evaporation based on GCM outputs, using the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework. This appears to provide a robust method for impacts assessment. From the GLM projections, the envisaged change in evaporation will be spatially variable across the UK. It is expected that the southern part of the UK will be more sensitive to the change in evaporation than the north. Moreover, in the 2080s, the range (variance) of the monthly potential evaporation appears to change more than the mean. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Using principal components analysis, climate variables related to evaporation have been examined; results show significant differences in correlation structures between observed UK data and climate outputs from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM3). Although employing the GCM data directly in the Penman-Monteith combination equation appears to be practical for estimating current potential evaporation, this approach does not project realistic potential evaporation in the 2080s. A local calibration approach is taken to the derivation of an alternative empirical model for estimating potential evaporation based on GCM outputs, using the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework. This appears to provide a robust method for impacts assessment. From the GLM projections, the envisaged change in evaporation will be spatially variable across the UK. It is expected that the southern part of the UK will be more sensitive to the change in evaporation than the north. Moreover, in the 2080s, the range (variance) of the monthly potential evaporation appears to change more than the mean. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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Abstract Evaporation estimation is important for the assessment of a wide range of potential impacts of climate change, yet there are significant questions concerning the relevance of alternative methods for climate change studies, and the uncertainty associated with downscaled driving variables. Using principal components analysis, climate variables related to evaporation have been examined; results show significant differences in correlation structures between observed UK data and climate outputs from a Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM3). Although employing the GCM data directly in the Penman-Monteith combination equation appears to be practical for estimating current potential evaporation, this approach does not project realistic potential evaporation in the 2080s. A local calibration approach is taken to the derivation of an alternative empirical model for estimating potential evaporation based on GCM outputs, using the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework. This appears to provide a robust method for impacts assessment. From the GLM projections, the envisaged change in evaporation will be spatially variable across the UK. It is expected that the southern part of the UK will be more sensitive to the change in evaporation than the north. Moreover, in the 2080s, the range (variance) of the monthly potential evaporation appears to change more than the mean. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 |
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Projecting and hindcasting potential evaporation for the UK between 1950 and 2099 |
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