Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales
Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
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| Autor*in: |
Gregersen, Ida Bülow [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2013 |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 118(2013), 3-4 vom: 04. Jan., Seite 783-797 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:118 ; year:2013 ; number:3-4 ; day:04 ; month:01 ; pages:783-797 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2062610777 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Madsen, Henrik |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rosbjerg, Dan |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mikkelsen, Peter Steen |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2062610777 (DE-He213)s10584-012-0669-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Gregersen, Ida Bülow verfasserin aut Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. Regional Climate Model Flood Risk Precipitation Extreme Rainfall Extreme Extreme Rainfall Event Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen aut Madsen, Henrik aut Rosbjerg, Dan aut Mikkelsen, Peter Steen aut Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 118(2013), 3-4 vom: 04. Jan., Seite 783-797 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:118 year:2013 number:3-4 day:04 month:01 pages:783-797 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 118 2013 3-4 04 01 783-797 |
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10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2062610777 (DE-He213)s10584-012-0669-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Gregersen, Ida Bülow verfasserin aut Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. Regional Climate Model Flood Risk Precipitation Extreme Rainfall Extreme Extreme Rainfall Event Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen aut Madsen, Henrik aut Rosbjerg, Dan aut Mikkelsen, Peter Steen aut Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 118(2013), 3-4 vom: 04. Jan., Seite 783-797 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:118 year:2013 number:3-4 day:04 month:01 pages:783-797 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 118 2013 3-4 04 01 783-797 |
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10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2062610777 (DE-He213)s10584-012-0669-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Gregersen, Ida Bülow verfasserin aut Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales 2013 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. Regional Climate Model Flood Risk Precipitation Extreme Rainfall Extreme Extreme Rainfall Event Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen aut Madsen, Henrik aut Rosbjerg, Dan aut Mikkelsen, Peter Steen aut Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 118(2013), 3-4 vom: 04. Jan., Seite 783-797 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:118 year:2013 number:3-4 day:04 month:01 pages:783-797 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 118 2013 3-4 04 01 783-797 |
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Gregersen, Ida Bülow @@aut@@ Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen @@aut@@ Madsen, Henrik @@aut@@ Rosbjerg, Dan @@aut@@ Mikkelsen, Peter Steen @@aut@@ Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten @@aut@@ |
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assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales |
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Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales |
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Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 |
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Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 |
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Abstract Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012 |
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