Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning
Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich [verfasserIn] |
|---|
| Format: |
Artikel |
|---|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2014 |
|---|
| Schlagwörter: |
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
|---|
| Systematik: |
|
|---|
| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 |
|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:127 ; year:2014 ; number:3-4 ; day:26 ; month:10 ; pages:579-586 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2062615825 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | OLC2062615825 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230503024321.0 | ||
| 007 | tu | ||
| 008 | 200819s2014 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)OLC2062615825 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 082 | 0 | 4 | |a 550 |q VZ |
| 084 | |a 14 |2 ssgn | ||
| 084 | |a RA 1000 |q VZ |2 rvk | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2014 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Band |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 | ||
| 520 | |a Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Model Ensemble | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Linear Response Function | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Levermann, Anders |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Meinshausen, Malte |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Climatic change |d Springer Netherlands, 1977 |g 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 |w (DE-627)130479020 |w (DE-600)751086-X |w (DE-576)016068610 |x 0165-0009 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:127 |g year:2014 |g number:3-4 |g day:26 |g month:10 |g pages:579-586 |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a SYSFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_OLC | ||
| 912 | |a SSG-OLC-UMW | ||
| 912 | |a SSG-OLC-GEO | ||
| 912 | |a SSG-OLC-IBL | ||
| 912 | |a SSG-OPC-GGO | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_40 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_62 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_70 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_154 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_601 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_4012 | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_ILN_4325 | ||
| 936 | r | v | |a RA 1000 |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 127 |j 2014 |e 3-4 |b 26 |c 10 |h 579-586 | ||
| author_variant |
c f s cfs a l al m m mm |
|---|---|
| matchkey_str |
article:01650009:2014----::rbblsipoetosfhalni |
| hierarchy_sort_str |
2014 |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| allfields |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich verfasserin aut Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Levermann, Anders aut Meinshausen, Malte aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 127 2014 3-4 26 10 579-586 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich verfasserin aut Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Levermann, Anders aut Meinshausen, Malte aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 127 2014 3-4 26 10 579-586 |
| allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich verfasserin aut Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Levermann, Anders aut Meinshausen, Malte aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 127 2014 3-4 26 10 579-586 |
| allfieldsGer |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich verfasserin aut Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Levermann, Anders aut Meinshausen, Malte aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 127 2014 3-4 26 10 579-586 |
| allfieldsSound |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich verfasserin aut Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Levermann, Anders aut Meinshausen, Malte aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 RA 1000 AR 127 2014 3-4 26 10 579-586 |
| language |
English |
| source |
Enthalten in Climatic change 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 |
| sourceStr |
Enthalten in Climatic change 127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586 volume:127 year:2014 number:3-4 day:26 month:10 pages:579-586 |
| format_phy_str_mv |
Article |
| institution |
findex.gbv.de |
| topic_facet |
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change |
| dewey-raw |
550 |
| isfreeaccess_bool |
false |
| container_title |
Climatic change |
| authorswithroles_txt_mv |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich @@aut@@ Levermann, Anders @@aut@@ Meinshausen, Malte @@aut@@ |
| publishDateDaySort_date |
2014-10-26T00:00:00Z |
| hierarchy_top_id |
130479020 |
| dewey-sort |
3550 |
| id |
OLC2062615825 |
| language_de |
englisch |
| fullrecord |
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">OLC2062615825</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230503024321.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">tu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">200819s2014 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)OLC2062615825</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">550</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">14</subfield><subfield code="2">ssgn</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">RA 1000</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2014</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen</subfield><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Band</subfield><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Model Ensemble</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Linear Response Function</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Levermann, Anders</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Meinshausen, Malte</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Climatic change</subfield><subfield code="d">Springer Netherlands, 1977</subfield><subfield code="g">127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-627)130479020</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-600)751086-X</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-576)016068610</subfield><subfield code="x">0165-0009</subfield><subfield code="7">nnns</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:127</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2014</subfield><subfield code="g">number:3-4</subfield><subfield code="g">day:26</subfield><subfield code="g">month:10</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:579-586</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="1"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2</subfield><subfield code="z">lizenzpflichtig</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_USEFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SYSFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_OLC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-UMW</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-GEO</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-IBL</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OPC-GGO</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_40</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_62</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_70</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_154</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_601</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4012</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4325</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="936" ind1="r" ind2="v"><subfield code="a">RA 1000</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="952" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="d">127</subfield><subfield code="j">2014</subfield><subfield code="e">3-4</subfield><subfield code="b">26</subfield><subfield code="c">10</subfield><subfield code="h">579-586</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
|
| author |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
| spellingShingle |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ddc 550 ssgn 14 rvk RA 1000 misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation misc Model Ensemble misc Linear Response Function misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| authorStr |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
| ppnlink_with_tag_str_mv |
@@773@@(DE-627)130479020 |
| format |
Article |
| dewey-ones |
550 - Earth sciences |
| delete_txt_mv |
keep |
| author_role |
aut aut aut |
| collection |
OLC |
| remote_str |
false |
| illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
| issn |
0165-0009 |
| topic_title |
550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Ensemble Linear Response Function Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change |
| topic |
ddc 550 ssgn 14 rvk RA 1000 misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation misc Model Ensemble misc Linear Response Function misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change |
| topic_unstemmed |
ddc 550 ssgn 14 rvk RA 1000 misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation misc Model Ensemble misc Linear Response Function misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change |
| topic_browse |
ddc 550 ssgn 14 rvk RA 1000 misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation misc Model Ensemble misc Linear Response Function misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength misc Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change |
| format_facet |
Aufsätze Gedruckte Aufsätze |
| format_main_str_mv |
Text Zeitschrift/Artikel |
| carriertype_str_mv |
nc |
| hierarchy_parent_title |
Climatic change |
| hierarchy_parent_id |
130479020 |
| dewey-tens |
550 - Earth sciences & geology |
| hierarchy_top_title |
Climatic change |
| isfreeaccess_txt |
false |
| familylinks_str_mv |
(DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 |
| title |
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| ctrlnum |
(DE-627)OLC2062615825 (DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p |
| title_full |
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| author_sort |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
| journal |
Climatic change |
| journalStr |
Climatic change |
| lang_code |
eng |
| isOA_bool |
false |
| dewey-hundreds |
500 - Science |
| recordtype |
marc |
| publishDateSort |
2014 |
| contenttype_str_mv |
txt |
| container_start_page |
579 |
| author_browse |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Levermann, Anders Meinshausen, Malte |
| container_volume |
127 |
| class |
550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk |
| format_se |
Aufsätze |
| author-letter |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
| doi_str_mv |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |
| dewey-full |
550 |
| title_sort |
probabilistic projections of the atlantic overturning |
| title_auth |
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| abstract |
Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 |
| collection_details |
GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4325 |
| container_issue |
3-4 |
| title_short |
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |
| remote_bool |
false |
| author2 |
Levermann, Anders Meinshausen, Malte |
| author2Str |
Levermann, Anders Meinshausen, Malte |
| ppnlink |
130479020 |
| mediatype_str_mv |
n |
| isOA_txt |
false |
| hochschulschrift_bool |
false |
| doi_str |
10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 |
| up_date |
2024-07-03T15:46:58.847Z |
| _version_ |
1803573389006209024 |
| fullrecord_marcxml |
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">OLC2062615825</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230503024321.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">tu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">200819s2014 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)OLC2062615825</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-He213)s10584-014-1265-2-p</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">550</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">14</subfield><subfield code="2">ssgn</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">RA 1000</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2014</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen</subfield><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Band</subfield><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 st century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Model Ensemble</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Linear Response Function</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Change</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Levermann, Anders</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Meinshausen, Malte</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Climatic change</subfield><subfield code="d">Springer Netherlands, 1977</subfield><subfield code="g">127(2014), 3-4 vom: 26. Okt., Seite 579-586</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-627)130479020</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-600)751086-X</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-576)016068610</subfield><subfield code="x">0165-0009</subfield><subfield code="7">nnns</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:127</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2014</subfield><subfield code="g">number:3-4</subfield><subfield code="g">day:26</subfield><subfield code="g">month:10</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:579-586</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="1"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2</subfield><subfield code="z">lizenzpflichtig</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_USEFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SYSFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_OLC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-UMW</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-GEO</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OLC-IBL</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SSG-OPC-GGO</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_40</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_62</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_70</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_154</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_601</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4012</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_ILN_4325</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="936" ind1="r" ind2="v"><subfield code="a">RA 1000</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="952" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="d">127</subfield><subfield code="j">2014</subfield><subfield code="e">3-4</subfield><subfield code="b">26</subfield><subfield code="c">10</subfield><subfield code="h">579-586</subfield></datafield></record></collection>
|
| score |
7.4019566 |