Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change
Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Zhao, Jin [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2016 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Systematik: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:137 ; year:2016 ; number:1-2 ; day:29 ; month:04 ; pages:29-42 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y |
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OLC2062620446 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change |
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| 520 | |a Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Yield Potential | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Yield Stability | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic Suitability | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Lv, Shuo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Jing |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dai, Shuwei |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062620446 (DE-He213)s10584-016-1652-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Zhao, Jin verfasserin aut Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. Yield Potential Yield Stability Climatic Index Climatic Suitability Cropland Area Yang, Xiaoguang aut Liu, Zhijuan aut Lv, Shuo aut Wang, Jing aut Dai, Shuwei aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:137 year:2016 number:1-2 day:29 month:04 pages:29-42 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 137 2016 1-2 29 04 29-42 |
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10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062620446 (DE-He213)s10584-016-1652-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Zhao, Jin verfasserin aut Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. Yield Potential Yield Stability Climatic Index Climatic Suitability Cropland Area Yang, Xiaoguang aut Liu, Zhijuan aut Lv, Shuo aut Wang, Jing aut Dai, Shuwei aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:137 year:2016 number:1-2 day:29 month:04 pages:29-42 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 137 2016 1-2 29 04 29-42 |
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10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062620446 (DE-He213)s10584-016-1652-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Zhao, Jin verfasserin aut Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. Yield Potential Yield Stability Climatic Index Climatic Suitability Cropland Area Yang, Xiaoguang aut Liu, Zhijuan aut Lv, Shuo aut Wang, Jing aut Dai, Shuwei aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:137 year:2016 number:1-2 day:29 month:04 pages:29-42 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 137 2016 1-2 29 04 29-42 |
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10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062620446 (DE-He213)s10584-016-1652-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Zhao, Jin verfasserin aut Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. Yield Potential Yield Stability Climatic Index Climatic Suitability Cropland Area Yang, Xiaoguang aut Liu, Zhijuan aut Lv, Shuo aut Wang, Jing aut Dai, Shuwei aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:137 year:2016 number:1-2 day:29 month:04 pages:29-42 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 137 2016 1-2 29 04 29-42 |
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10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062620446 (DE-He213)s10584-016-1652-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Zhao, Jin verfasserin aut Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. Yield Potential Yield Stability Climatic Index Climatic Suitability Cropland Area Yang, Xiaoguang aut Liu, Zhijuan aut Lv, Shuo aut Wang, Jing aut Dai, Shuwei aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 137(2016), 1-2 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 29-42 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:137 year:2016 number:1-2 day:29 month:04 pages:29-42 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 137 2016 1-2 29 04 29-42 |
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In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. 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variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in northeast china under climate change |
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Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change |
| abstract |
Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p < 0.01. We also found a close correlation between the increase in GDD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = −0.25, p < 0.05. Given the same crop varieties and farming management, the total production potential for spring maize in the entire NEC reduced by 4.3 % during period II as compared to period I. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016 |
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