Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems
Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation o...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
van Soest, Heleen L. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2017 |
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| Systematik: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2017 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 144(2017), 2 vom: 24. Juli, Seite 165-179 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:144 ; year:2017 ; number:2 ; day:24 ; month:07 ; pages:165-179 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 |
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OLC2062623712 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a de Boer, Harmen Sytze |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Roelfsema, Mark |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a den Elzen, Michel G.J. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Admiraal, Annemiek |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a van Vuuren, Detlef P. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hof, Andries F. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a van den Berg, Maarten |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gernaat, David E.H.J. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Forsell, Nicklas |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 doi (DE-627)OLC2062623712 (DE-He213)s10584-017-2027-8-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Soest, Heleen L. verfasserin aut Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2017 Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. de Boer, Harmen Sytze aut Roelfsema, Mark aut den Elzen, Michel G.J. aut Admiraal, Annemiek aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. aut Hof, Andries F. aut van den Berg, Maarten aut Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. aut Gernaat, David E.H.J. aut Forsell, Nicklas aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 144(2017), 2 vom: 24. Juli, Seite 165-179 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:144 year:2017 number:2 day:24 month:07 pages:165-179 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 144 2017 2 24 07 165-179 |
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10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 doi (DE-627)OLC2062623712 (DE-He213)s10584-017-2027-8-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Soest, Heleen L. verfasserin aut Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2017 Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. de Boer, Harmen Sytze aut Roelfsema, Mark aut den Elzen, Michel G.J. aut Admiraal, Annemiek aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. aut Hof, Andries F. aut van den Berg, Maarten aut Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. aut Gernaat, David E.H.J. aut Forsell, Nicklas aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 144(2017), 2 vom: 24. Juli, Seite 165-179 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:144 year:2017 number:2 day:24 month:07 pages:165-179 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 144 2017 2 24 07 165-179 |
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10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 doi (DE-627)OLC2062623712 (DE-He213)s10584-017-2027-8-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Soest, Heleen L. verfasserin aut Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2017 Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. de Boer, Harmen Sytze aut Roelfsema, Mark aut den Elzen, Michel G.J. aut Admiraal, Annemiek aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. aut Hof, Andries F. aut van den Berg, Maarten aut Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. aut Gernaat, David E.H.J. aut Forsell, Nicklas aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 144(2017), 2 vom: 24. Juli, Seite 165-179 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:144 year:2017 number:2 day:24 month:07 pages:165-179 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 144 2017 2 24 07 165-179 |
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10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 doi (DE-627)OLC2062623712 (DE-He213)s10584-017-2027-8-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk van Soest, Heleen L. verfasserin aut Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems 2017 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2017 Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. de Boer, Harmen Sytze aut Roelfsema, Mark aut den Elzen, Michel G.J. aut Admiraal, Annemiek aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. aut Hof, Andries F. aut van den Berg, Maarten aut Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. aut Gernaat, David E.H.J. aut Forsell, Nicklas aut Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 144(2017), 2 vom: 24. Juli, Seite 165-179 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:144 year:2017 number:2 day:24 month:07 pages:165-179 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 144 2017 2 24 07 165-179 |
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van Soest, Heleen L. de Boer, Harmen Sytze Roelfsema, Mark den Elzen, Michel G.J. Admiraal, Annemiek van Vuuren, Detlef P. Hof, Andries F. van den Berg, Maarten Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M. Gernaat, David E.H.J. Forsell, Nicklas |
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Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems |
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Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. © The Author(s) 2017 |
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Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. © The Author(s) 2017 |
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Abstract The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne $ CO_{2} $ equivalent ($ GtCO_{2} $eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 $ GtCO_{2} $eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/$ m^{2} $ forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity. © The Author(s) 2017 |
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