Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017
Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. O...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Nordhaus, William [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2018 |
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| Systematik: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Springer Netherlands, 1977, 148(2018), 4 vom: 17. Mai, Seite 623-640 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:148 ; year:2018 ; number:4 ; day:17 ; month:05 ; pages:623-640 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y |
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OLC2062625618 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315–1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. | ||
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10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y doi (DE-627)OLC2062625618 (DE-He213)s10584-018-2218-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn RA 1000 VZ rvk Nordhaus, William verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-7036-0656 aut Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 2018 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315–1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. Enthalten in Climatic change Springer Netherlands, 1977 148(2018), 4 vom: 17. Mai, Seite 623-640 (DE-627)130479020 (DE-600)751086-X (DE-576)016068610 0165-0009 nnns volume:148 year:2018 number:4 day:17 month:05 pages:623-640 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OLC-IBL SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4012 RA 1000 AR 148 2018 4 17 05 623-640 |
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evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the dice model, 1992–2017 |
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Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 |
| abstract |
Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315–1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315–1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315–1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 |
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| container_issue |
4 |
| title_short |
Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y |
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| doi_str |
10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y |
| up_date |
2024-07-03T15:49:55.035Z |
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