A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984
Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate norm...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Nardulli, Peter F. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
1994 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Political behavior - Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979, 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:16 ; year:1994 ; number:4 ; month:12 ; pages:467-503 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/BF01498827 |
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10.1007/BF01498827 doi (DE-627)OLC2067356755 (DE-He213)BF01498827-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 320 VZ 3,6 ssgn Nardulli, Peter F. verfasserin aut A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 1994 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. Presidential Election American Politics Developmental Perspective Political Psychology American Democracy Enthalten in Political behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 (DE-627)168471760 (DE-600)757007-7 (DE-576)063973146 0190-9320 nnns volume:16 year:1994 number:4 month:12 pages:467-503 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498827 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-POL GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_72 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2035 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4027 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 16 1994 4 12 467-503 |
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10.1007/BF01498827 doi (DE-627)OLC2067356755 (DE-He213)BF01498827-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 320 VZ 3,6 ssgn Nardulli, Peter F. verfasserin aut A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 1994 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. Presidential Election American Politics Developmental Perspective Political Psychology American Democracy Enthalten in Political behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 (DE-627)168471760 (DE-600)757007-7 (DE-576)063973146 0190-9320 nnns volume:16 year:1994 number:4 month:12 pages:467-503 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498827 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-POL GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_72 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2035 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4027 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 16 1994 4 12 467-503 |
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10.1007/BF01498827 doi (DE-627)OLC2067356755 (DE-He213)BF01498827-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 320 VZ 3,6 ssgn Nardulli, Peter F. verfasserin aut A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 1994 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. Presidential Election American Politics Developmental Perspective Political Psychology American Democracy Enthalten in Political behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 (DE-627)168471760 (DE-600)757007-7 (DE-576)063973146 0190-9320 nnns volume:16 year:1994 number:4 month:12 pages:467-503 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498827 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-POL GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_72 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2035 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4027 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 16 1994 4 12 467-503 |
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10.1007/BF01498827 doi (DE-627)OLC2067356755 (DE-He213)BF01498827-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 320 VZ 3,6 ssgn Nardulli, Peter F. verfasserin aut A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 1994 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. Presidential Election American Politics Developmental Perspective Political Psychology American Democracy Enthalten in Political behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 (DE-627)168471760 (DE-600)757007-7 (DE-576)063973146 0190-9320 nnns volume:16 year:1994 number:4 month:12 pages:467-503 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498827 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-POL GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_72 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2035 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4027 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 16 1994 4 12 467-503 |
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10.1007/BF01498827 doi (DE-627)OLC2067356755 (DE-He213)BF01498827-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 320 VZ 3,6 ssgn Nardulli, Peter F. verfasserin aut A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 1994 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. Presidential Election American Politics Developmental Perspective Political Psychology American Democracy Enthalten in Political behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers, 1979 16(1994), 4 vom: Dez., Seite 467-503 (DE-627)168471760 (DE-600)757007-7 (DE-576)063973146 0190-9320 nnns volume:16 year:1994 number:4 month:12 pages:467-503 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498827 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-POL GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_72 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2035 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4027 GBV_ILN_4324 AR 16 1994 4 12 467-503 |
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A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 |
| abstract |
Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 |
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Abstract This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy. © Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994 |
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A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828–1984 |
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