Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks
Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method pro...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Drakatos, G. [verfasserIn] |
|---|
| Format: |
Artikel |
|---|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2000 |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Pure and applied geophysics - Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964, 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:157 ; year:2000 ; number:9 ; month:09 ; pages:1407-1421 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/PL00001126 |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2069479838 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. | ||
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10.1007/PL00001126 doi (DE-627)OLC2069479838 (DE-He213)PL00001126-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Drakatos, G. verfasserin aut Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks 2000 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:157 year:2000 number:9 month:09 pages:1407-1421 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001126 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_30 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4029 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 157 2000 9 09 1407-1421 |
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10.1007/PL00001126 doi (DE-627)OLC2069479838 (DE-He213)PL00001126-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Drakatos, G. verfasserin aut Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks 2000 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:157 year:2000 number:9 month:09 pages:1407-1421 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001126 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_30 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4029 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 157 2000 9 09 1407-1421 |
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10.1007/PL00001126 doi (DE-627)OLC2069479838 (DE-He213)PL00001126-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Drakatos, G. verfasserin aut Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks 2000 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:157 year:2000 number:9 month:09 pages:1407-1421 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001126 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_30 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4029 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 157 2000 9 09 1407-1421 |
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10.1007/PL00001126 doi (DE-627)OLC2069479838 (DE-He213)PL00001126-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Drakatos, G. verfasserin aut Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks 2000 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:157 year:2000 number:9 month:09 pages:1407-1421 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001126 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_30 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4029 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 157 2000 9 09 1407-1421 |
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10.1007/PL00001126 doi (DE-627)OLC2069479838 (DE-He213)PL00001126-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Drakatos, G. verfasserin aut Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks 2000 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics Birkhäuser Verlag, 1964 157(2000), 9 vom: Sept., Seite 1407-1421 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:157 year:2000 number:9 month:09 pages:1407-1421 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001126 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_30 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4029 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 157 2000 9 09 1407-1421 |
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550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks |
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Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks |
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Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks |
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relative seismic quiescence before large aftershocks |
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Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks |
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Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 |
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Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract —In terms of the modified Omori’s formula and Akaike’s Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori’s formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu’ura’s method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a ‘qualitative’ prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock. © Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 2000 |
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Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks |
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