Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts
Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Ce...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Zhou, Binbin [verfasserIn] |
|---|
| Format: |
Artikel |
|---|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2011 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Springer Basel AG 2011 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Pure and applied geophysics - SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1964, 169(2011), 5-6 vom: 19. Mai, Seite 895-909 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:169 ; year:2011 ; number:5-6 ; day:19 ; month:05 ; pages:895-909 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2069495213 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. | ||
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10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x doi (DE-627)OLC2069495213 (DE-He213)s00024-011-0327-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Zhou, Binbin verfasserin aut Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Basel AG 2011 Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. Ensemble Member Ensemble Forecast Equitable Threat Score Ensemble Forecast System Short Range Ensemble Forecast Du, Jun aut Gultepe, Ismail aut Dimego, Geoff aut Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1964 169(2011), 5-6 vom: 19. Mai, Seite 895-909 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:169 year:2011 number:5-6 day:19 month:05 pages:895-909 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4155 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 169 2011 5-6 19 05 895-909 |
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10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x doi (DE-627)OLC2069495213 (DE-He213)s00024-011-0327-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Zhou, Binbin verfasserin aut Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Basel AG 2011 Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. Ensemble Member Ensemble Forecast Equitable Threat Score Ensemble Forecast System Short Range Ensemble Forecast Du, Jun aut Gultepe, Ismail aut Dimego, Geoff aut Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1964 169(2011), 5-6 vom: 19. Mai, Seite 895-909 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:169 year:2011 number:5-6 day:19 month:05 pages:895-909 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4155 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 169 2011 5-6 19 05 895-909 |
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10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x doi (DE-627)OLC2069495213 (DE-He213)s00024-011-0327-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Zhou, Binbin verfasserin aut Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Basel AG 2011 Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. Ensemble Member Ensemble Forecast Equitable Threat Score Ensemble Forecast System Short Range Ensemble Forecast Du, Jun aut Gultepe, Ismail aut Dimego, Geoff aut Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1964 169(2011), 5-6 vom: 19. Mai, Seite 895-909 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:169 year:2011 number:5-6 day:19 month:05 pages:895-909 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4155 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 169 2011 5-6 19 05 895-909 |
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10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x doi (DE-627)OLC2069495213 (DE-He213)s00024-011-0327-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Zhou, Binbin verfasserin aut Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts 2011 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer Basel AG 2011 Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. Ensemble Member Ensemble Forecast Equitable Threat Score Ensemble Forecast System Short Range Ensemble Forecast Du, Jun aut Gultepe, Ismail aut Dimego, Geoff aut Enthalten in Pure and applied geophysics SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1964 169(2011), 5-6 vom: 19. Mai, Seite 895-909 (DE-627)129538353 (DE-600)216719-0 (DE-576)014971038 0033-4553 nnns volume:169 year:2011 number:5-6 day:19 month:05 pages:895-909 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_21 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_601 GBV_ILN_4028 GBV_ILN_4155 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 169 2011 5-6 19 05 895-909 |
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Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts |
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forecast of low visibility and fog from ncep: current status and efforts |
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Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts |
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Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. © Springer Basel AG 2011 |
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Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. © Springer Basel AG 2011 |
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Abstract Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12 km-NAM, 13 km-RUC and 32 km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised. © Springer Basel AG 2011 |
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Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts |
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