Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident
Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Alinaghizadeh, Hassan [verfasserIn] |
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Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
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2014 |
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Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2014 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Radiation and environmental biophysics - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974, 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:53 ; year:2014 ; number:3 ; day:09 ; month:05 ; pages:495-504 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC2075421358 |
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520 | |a Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Cancer | |
650 | 4 | |a Cesium-137 | |
650 | 4 | |a Chernobyl | |
650 | 4 | |a Ecological study | |
650 | 4 | |a Environment | |
650 | 4 | |a Epidemiology | |
650 | 4 | |a Ionizing radiation | |
650 | 4 | |a Nuclear accident | |
650 | 4 | |a Radiation | |
650 | 4 | |a Sweden | |
700 | 1 | |a Tondel, Martin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Walinder, Robert |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2075421358 (DE-He213)s00411-014-0545-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 530 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Alinaghizadeh, Hassan verfasserin aut Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2014 Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. Cancer Cesium-137 Chernobyl Ecological study Environment Epidemiology Ionizing radiation Nuclear accident Radiation Sweden Tondel, Martin aut Walinder, Robert aut Enthalten in Radiation and environmental biophysics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 (DE-627)129308528 (DE-600)124987-3 (DE-576)014507870 0301-634X nnns volume:53 year:2014 number:3 day:09 month:05 pages:495-504 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4082 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 53 2014 3 09 05 495-504 |
spelling |
10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2075421358 (DE-He213)s00411-014-0545-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 530 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Alinaghizadeh, Hassan verfasserin aut Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2014 Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. Cancer Cesium-137 Chernobyl Ecological study Environment Epidemiology Ionizing radiation Nuclear accident Radiation Sweden Tondel, Martin aut Walinder, Robert aut Enthalten in Radiation and environmental biophysics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 (DE-627)129308528 (DE-600)124987-3 (DE-576)014507870 0301-634X nnns volume:53 year:2014 number:3 day:09 month:05 pages:495-504 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4082 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 53 2014 3 09 05 495-504 |
allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2075421358 (DE-He213)s00411-014-0545-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 530 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Alinaghizadeh, Hassan verfasserin aut Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2014 Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. Cancer Cesium-137 Chernobyl Ecological study Environment Epidemiology Ionizing radiation Nuclear accident Radiation Sweden Tondel, Martin aut Walinder, Robert aut Enthalten in Radiation and environmental biophysics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 (DE-627)129308528 (DE-600)124987-3 (DE-576)014507870 0301-634X nnns volume:53 year:2014 number:3 day:09 month:05 pages:495-504 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4082 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 53 2014 3 09 05 495-504 |
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10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2075421358 (DE-He213)s00411-014-0545-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 530 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Alinaghizadeh, Hassan verfasserin aut Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2014 Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. Cancer Cesium-137 Chernobyl Ecological study Environment Epidemiology Ionizing radiation Nuclear accident Radiation Sweden Tondel, Martin aut Walinder, Robert aut Enthalten in Radiation and environmental biophysics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 (DE-627)129308528 (DE-600)124987-3 (DE-576)014507870 0301-634X nnns volume:53 year:2014 number:3 day:09 month:05 pages:495-504 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4082 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 53 2014 3 09 05 495-504 |
allfieldsSound |
10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2075421358 (DE-He213)s00411-014-0545-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 530 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Alinaghizadeh, Hassan verfasserin aut Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident 2014 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2014 Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. Cancer Cesium-137 Chernobyl Ecological study Environment Epidemiology Ionizing radiation Nuclear accident Radiation Sweden Tondel, Martin aut Walinder, Robert aut Enthalten in Radiation and environmental biophysics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1974 53(2014), 3 vom: 09. Mai, Seite 495-504 (DE-627)129308528 (DE-600)124987-3 (DE-576)014507870 0301-634X nnns volume:53 year:2014 number:3 day:09 month:05 pages:495-504 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-014-0545-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4082 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 53 2014 3 09 05 495-504 |
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Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. 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Alinaghizadeh, Hassan ddc 570 ssgn 12 fid BIODIV misc Cancer misc Cesium-137 misc Chernobyl misc Ecological study misc Environment misc Epidemiology misc Ionizing radiation misc Nuclear accident misc Radiation misc Sweden Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
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Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
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Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
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cancer incidence in northern sweden before and after the chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
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Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
abstract |
Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. © The Author(s) 2014 |
abstractGer |
Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. © The Author(s) 2014 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of 137Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of 137Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of 137Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of 137Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of 137Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of 137Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of 137Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden. © The Author(s) 2014 |
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Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident |
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