Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation
Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Dalaiden, Quentin [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986, 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:57 ; year:2021 ; number:11-12 ; day:13 ; month:07 ; pages:3479-3503 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 |
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OLC2077234253 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate reconstruction | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Rezsöhazy, Jeanne |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2077234253 (DE-He213)s00382-021-05879-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Dalaiden, Quentin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3885-3848 aut Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Climate reconstruction Antarctic Ice cores Climate models Data assimilation Goosse, Hugues (orcid)0000-0002-5438-3612 aut Rezsöhazy, Jeanne aut Thomas, Elizabeth R. (orcid)0000-0002-3010-6493 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:57 year:2021 number:11-12 day:13 month:07 pages:3479-3503 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 57 2021 11-12 13 07 3479-3503 |
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10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2077234253 (DE-He213)s00382-021-05879-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Dalaiden, Quentin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3885-3848 aut Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Climate reconstruction Antarctic Ice cores Climate models Data assimilation Goosse, Hugues (orcid)0000-0002-5438-3612 aut Rezsöhazy, Jeanne aut Thomas, Elizabeth R. (orcid)0000-0002-3010-6493 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:57 year:2021 number:11-12 day:13 month:07 pages:3479-3503 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 57 2021 11-12 13 07 3479-3503 |
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10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2077234253 (DE-He213)s00382-021-05879-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Dalaiden, Quentin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3885-3848 aut Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Climate reconstruction Antarctic Ice cores Climate models Data assimilation Goosse, Hugues (orcid)0000-0002-5438-3612 aut Rezsöhazy, Jeanne aut Thomas, Elizabeth R. (orcid)0000-0002-3010-6493 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:57 year:2021 number:11-12 day:13 month:07 pages:3479-3503 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 57 2021 11-12 13 07 3479-3503 |
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10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2077234253 (DE-He213)s00382-021-05879-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Dalaiden, Quentin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3885-3848 aut Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Climate reconstruction Antarctic Ice cores Climate models Data assimilation Goosse, Hugues (orcid)0000-0002-5438-3612 aut Rezsöhazy, Jeanne aut Thomas, Elizabeth R. (orcid)0000-0002-3010-6493 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:57 year:2021 number:11-12 day:13 month:07 pages:3479-3503 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 57 2021 11-12 13 07 3479-3503 |
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10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 doi (DE-627)OLC2077234253 (DE-He213)s00382-021-05879-6-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Dalaiden, Quentin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-3885-3848 aut Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Climate reconstruction Antarctic Ice cores Climate models Data assimilation Goosse, Hugues (orcid)0000-0002-5438-3612 aut Rezsöhazy, Jeanne aut Thomas, Elizabeth R. (orcid)0000-0002-3010-6493 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 57(2021), 11-12 vom: 13. Juli, Seite 3479-3503 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:57 year:2021 number:11-12 day:13 month:07 pages:3479-3503 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 57 2021 11-12 13 07 3479-3503 |
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reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the west antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation |
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Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation |
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Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Abstract The West Antarctic climate has witnessed large changes during the second half of the twentieth century including a strong and widespread continental warming, important regional changes in sea-ice extent and snow accumulation, as well as a major mass loss from the melting of some ice shelves. However, the potential links between those observed changes are still unclear and instrumental data do not allow determination of whether they are part of a long-term evolution or specific to the recent decades. In this study, we analyze the climate variability of the past two centuries in the West Antarctic sector by reconstructing the key atmospheric variables (atmospheric circulation, near-surface air temperature and snow accumulation) as well as the sea-ice extent at the annual timescale using a data assimilation approach. To this end, information from Antarctic ice core records (snow accumulation and $$\delta ^{{18}}\hbox{O}$$) and tree-ring width records situated in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are combined with the physics of climate models using a data assimilation method. This ultimately provides a complete spatial reconstruction over the West Antarctic region. Our reconstruction reproduces well the main characteristics of the observed changes over the instrumental period. We show that the observed sea-ice reduction in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector over the satellite era is part of a long-term trend, starting at around 1850 CE, while the sea-ice expansion in the Ross Sea sector has only started around 1950 CE. Furthermore, according to our reconstruction, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) displays no significant linear trend in its strength or position over 1850–1950 CE but becomes stronger and shifts eastward afterwards. The year-to-year sea-ice variations in the Ross Sea sector are strongly related to the ASL variability over the past two centuries, including the recent trends. By contrast, the link between ASL and sea-ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea sector changes with time, being stronger in recent decades than before. Our reconstruction also suggests that the continental response to the variability of the ASL may not be stationary over time, being significantly affected by modification of the mean atmospheric circulation. Finally, we show that the widespread warming since 1958 CE in West Antarctica is unusual in the context of past 200 years and is explained by both the deeper ASL and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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