Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling
Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely,...
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| Autor*in: |
Malik, Rayees A. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 |
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Enthalten in: Environmental monitoring and assessment - Springer International Publishing, 1981, 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli |
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volume:194 ; year:2022 ; number:9 ; day:21 ; month:07 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y |
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OLC2079200747 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Rafiq, Iflah |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Singh, S. P. |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y doi (DE-627)OLC2079200747 (DE-He213)s10661-022-10245-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Malik, Rayees A. verfasserin aut Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. Ensemble modelling Habitat Distribution range Range shift Reshi, Zafar A. aut Rafiq, Iflah aut Singh, S. P. aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:194 year:2022 number:9 day:21 month:07 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 194 2022 9 21 07 |
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10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y doi (DE-627)OLC2079200747 (DE-He213)s10661-022-10245-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Malik, Rayees A. verfasserin aut Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. Ensemble modelling Habitat Distribution range Range shift Reshi, Zafar A. aut Rafiq, Iflah aut Singh, S. P. aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:194 year:2022 number:9 day:21 month:07 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 194 2022 9 21 07 |
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10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y doi (DE-627)OLC2079200747 (DE-He213)s10661-022-10245-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Malik, Rayees A. verfasserin aut Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. Ensemble modelling Habitat Distribution range Range shift Reshi, Zafar A. aut Rafiq, Iflah aut Singh, S. P. aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:194 year:2022 number:9 day:21 month:07 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 194 2022 9 21 07 |
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10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y doi (DE-627)OLC2079200747 (DE-He213)s10661-022-10245-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Malik, Rayees A. verfasserin aut Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. Ensemble modelling Habitat Distribution range Range shift Reshi, Zafar A. aut Rafiq, Iflah aut Singh, S. P. aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:194 year:2022 number:9 day:21 month:07 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 194 2022 9 21 07 |
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10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y doi (DE-627)OLC2079200747 (DE-He213)s10661-022-10245-y-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Malik, Rayees A. verfasserin aut Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. Ensemble modelling Habitat Distribution range Range shift Reshi, Zafar A. aut Rafiq, Iflah aut Singh, S. P. aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 194(2022), 9 vom: 21. Juli (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:194 year:2022 number:9 day:21 month:07 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-y lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 194 2022 9 21 07 |
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decline in the suitable habitat of dominant abies species in response to climate change in the hindu kush himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling |
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Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling |
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Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 |
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Abstract Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 $ km^{2} $, 790,837 $ km^{2} $ and 676,918 $ km^{2} $ for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 |
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