Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions
Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto front...
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| Autor*in: |
Arefinia, Ali [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Natural hazards - Springer Netherlands, 1988, 114(2022), 2 vom: 04. Juli, Seite 1709-1721 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:114 ; year:2022 ; number:2 ; day:04 ; month:07 ; pages:1709-1721 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 |
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OLC2079794647 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Loáiciga, Hugo A. |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 doi (DE-627)OLC2079794647 (DE-He213)s11069-022-05443-3-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Arefinia, Ali verfasserin aut Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. Virtual water Climate change Statistical downscaling model Water security Food security Optimization Bozorg-Haddad, Omid (orcid)0000-0001-6607-9581 aut Ahmadaali, Khaled aut Zolghadr-Asli, Babak (orcid)0000-0002-3392-2672 aut Loáiciga, Hugo A. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 114(2022), 2 vom: 04. Juli, Seite 1709-1721 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:114 year:2022 number:2 day:04 month:07 pages:1709-1721 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT AR 114 2022 2 04 07 1709-1721 |
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10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 doi (DE-627)OLC2079794647 (DE-He213)s11069-022-05443-3-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Arefinia, Ali verfasserin aut Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. Virtual water Climate change Statistical downscaling model Water security Food security Optimization Bozorg-Haddad, Omid (orcid)0000-0001-6607-9581 aut Ahmadaali, Khaled aut Zolghadr-Asli, Babak (orcid)0000-0002-3392-2672 aut Loáiciga, Hugo A. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 114(2022), 2 vom: 04. Juli, Seite 1709-1721 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:114 year:2022 number:2 day:04 month:07 pages:1709-1721 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT AR 114 2022 2 04 07 1709-1721 |
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10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 doi (DE-627)OLC2079794647 (DE-He213)s11069-022-05443-3-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Arefinia, Ali verfasserin aut Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. Virtual water Climate change Statistical downscaling model Water security Food security Optimization Bozorg-Haddad, Omid (orcid)0000-0001-6607-9581 aut Ahmadaali, Khaled aut Zolghadr-Asli, Babak (orcid)0000-0002-3392-2672 aut Loáiciga, Hugo A. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 114(2022), 2 vom: 04. Juli, Seite 1709-1721 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:114 year:2022 number:2 day:04 month:07 pages:1709-1721 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT AR 114 2022 2 04 07 1709-1721 |
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10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 doi (DE-627)OLC2079794647 (DE-He213)s11069-022-05443-3-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 14 ssgn Arefinia, Ali verfasserin aut Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions 2022 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. Virtual water Climate change Statistical downscaling model Water security Food security Optimization Bozorg-Haddad, Omid (orcid)0000-0001-6607-9581 aut Ahmadaali, Khaled aut Zolghadr-Asli, Babak (orcid)0000-0002-3392-2672 aut Loáiciga, Hugo A. aut Enthalten in Natural hazards Springer Netherlands, 1988 114(2022), 2 vom: 04. Juli, Seite 1709-1721 (DE-627)131010271 (DE-600)1088547-X (DE-576)03285272X 0921-030X nnns volume:114 year:2022 number:2 day:04 month:07 pages:1709-1721 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-PHY SSG-OLC-MAT SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-MAT AR 114 2022 2 04 07 1709-1721 |
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Arefinia, Ali |
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10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3 |
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cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions |
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Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions |
| abstract |
Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022 |
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Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions |
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Bozorg-Haddad, Omid Ahmadaali, Khaled Zolghadr-Asli, Babak Loáiciga, Hugo A. |
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