House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment
Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment ac...
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Eun, Cheol [verfasserIn] |
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Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: The journal of real estate finance and economics - Springer US, 1988, 65(2021), 4 vom: 23. Juni, Seite 675-710 |
|---|---|
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volume:65 ; year:2021 ; number:4 ; day:23 ; month:06 ; pages:675-710 |
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10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x |
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| 520 | |a Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. | ||
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10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x doi (DE-627)OLC2079795473 (DE-He213)s11146-021-09849-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 330 VZ Eun, Cheol verfasserin aut House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. House price growth synchronization Business cycle alignment Housing collateral Consumption growth Banking integration and development Wang, Lingling (orcid)0000-0002-6008-4037 aut Zhang, Tim aut Enthalten in The journal of real estate finance and economics Springer US, 1988 65(2021), 4 vom: 23. Juni, Seite 675-710 (DE-627)170550265 (DE-600)1073289-5 (DE-576)025193546 0895-5638 nnns volume:65 year:2021 number:4 day:23 month:06 pages:675-710 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_648 AR 65 2021 4 23 06 675-710 |
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10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x doi (DE-627)OLC2079795473 (DE-He213)s11146-021-09849-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 330 VZ Eun, Cheol verfasserin aut House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. House price growth synchronization Business cycle alignment Housing collateral Consumption growth Banking integration and development Wang, Lingling (orcid)0000-0002-6008-4037 aut Zhang, Tim aut Enthalten in The journal of real estate finance and economics Springer US, 1988 65(2021), 4 vom: 23. Juni, Seite 675-710 (DE-627)170550265 (DE-600)1073289-5 (DE-576)025193546 0895-5638 nnns volume:65 year:2021 number:4 day:23 month:06 pages:675-710 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_648 AR 65 2021 4 23 06 675-710 |
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10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x doi (DE-627)OLC2079795473 (DE-He213)s11146-021-09849-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 330 VZ Eun, Cheol verfasserin aut House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment 2021 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. House price growth synchronization Business cycle alignment Housing collateral Consumption growth Banking integration and development Wang, Lingling (orcid)0000-0002-6008-4037 aut Zhang, Tim aut Enthalten in The journal of real estate finance and economics Springer US, 1988 65(2021), 4 vom: 23. Juni, Seite 675-710 (DE-627)170550265 (DE-600)1073289-5 (DE-576)025193546 0895-5638 nnns volume:65 year:2021 number:4 day:23 month:06 pages:675-710 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-021-09849-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-WIW GBV_ILN_648 AR 65 2021 4 23 06 675-710 |
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Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Abstract One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment |
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