Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France
Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological mode...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Zink, Katrin [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2016 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2016 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: International journal of biometeorology - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1961, 61(2016), 1 vom: 18. Juni, Seite 23-33 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:61 ; year:2016 ; number:1 ; day:18 ; month:06 ; pages:23-33 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x |
|---|
| Katalog-ID: |
OLC2106919077 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. | ||
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10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x doi (DE-627)OLC2106919077 (DE-He213)s00484-016-1188-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 550 VZ 570 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Zink, Katrin verfasserin aut Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2016 Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. Ragweed Distribution map Land use Ragweed inventory Pollen Numerical simulation Kaufmann, Pirmin aut Petitpierre, Blaise aut Broennimann, Olivier aut Guisan, Antoine aut Gentilini, Eros aut Rotach, Mathias W. aut Enthalten in International journal of biometeorology Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1961 61(2016), 1 vom: 18. Juni, Seite 23-33 (DE-627)12985106X (DE-600)280324-0 (DE-576)015150259 0020-7128 nnns volume:61 year:2016 number:1 day:18 month:06 pages:23-33 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4311 AR 61 2016 1 18 06 23-33 |
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10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x doi (DE-627)OLC2106919077 (DE-He213)s00484-016-1188-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 550 VZ 570 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Zink, Katrin verfasserin aut Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2016 Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. Ragweed Distribution map Land use Ragweed inventory Pollen Numerical simulation Kaufmann, Pirmin aut Petitpierre, Blaise aut Broennimann, Olivier aut Guisan, Antoine aut Gentilini, Eros aut Rotach, Mathias W. aut Enthalten in International journal of biometeorology Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1961 61(2016), 1 vom: 18. Juni, Seite 23-33 (DE-627)12985106X (DE-600)280324-0 (DE-576)015150259 0020-7128 nnns volume:61 year:2016 number:1 day:18 month:06 pages:23-33 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4311 AR 61 2016 1 18 06 23-33 |
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10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x doi (DE-627)OLC2106919077 (DE-He213)s00484-016-1188-x-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 570 550 VZ 570 VZ 12 ssgn BIODIV DE-30 fid Zink, Katrin verfasserin aut Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France 2016 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2016 Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. Ragweed Distribution map Land use Ragweed inventory Pollen Numerical simulation Kaufmann, Pirmin aut Petitpierre, Blaise aut Broennimann, Olivier aut Guisan, Antoine aut Gentilini, Eros aut Rotach, Mathias W. aut Enthalten in International journal of biometeorology Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1961 61(2016), 1 vom: 18. Juni, Seite 23-33 (DE-627)12985106X (DE-600)280324-0 (DE-576)015150259 0020-7128 nnns volume:61 year:2016 number:1 day:18 month:06 pages:23-33 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC FID-BIODIV SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4311 AR 61 2016 1 18 06 23-33 |
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International journal of biometeorology |
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Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France |
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Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France |
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Zink, Katrin |
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International journal of biometeorology |
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International journal of biometeorology |
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2016 |
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Zink, Katrin Kaufmann, Pirmin Petitpierre, Blaise Broennimann, Olivier Guisan, Antoine Gentilini, Eros Rotach, Mathias W. |
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Zink, Katrin |
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10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x |
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570 550 |
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numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for france |
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Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France |
| abstract |
Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. © The Author(s) 2016 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. © The Author(s) 2016 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. © The Author(s) 2016 |
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Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France |
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Kaufmann, Pirmin Petitpierre, Blaise Broennimann, Olivier Guisan, Antoine Gentilini, Eros Rotach, Mathias W. |
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