Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations
Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Tangang, Fredolin [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2020 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2020 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986, 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:55 ; year:2020 ; number:5-6 ; day:09 ; month:06 ; pages:1247-1267 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC2118487401 |
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520 | |a Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Projected rainfall | |
650 | 4 | |a Regional climate downscaling | |
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650 | 4 | |a CORDEX Southeast Asia | |
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700 | 1 | |a Salimun, Ester |4 aut | |
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700 | 1 | |a Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Cruz, Faye |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2118487401 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05322-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Tangang, Fredolin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-4919-1800 aut Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Projected rainfall Regional climate downscaling Multi-model simulations CORDEX Southeast Asia Chung, Jing Xiang aut Juneng, Liew aut Salimun, Ester aut Ngai, Sheau Tieh aut Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz aut Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal aut Cruz, Faye aut Narisma, Gemma aut Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn aut Ngo-Duc, Thanh aut Van Tan, Phan aut Singhruck, Patama aut Gunawan, Dodo aut Aldrian, Edvin aut Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena aut Grigory, Nikulin aut Remedio, Armelle Reca C. aut Sein, Dmitry V. aut Hein-Griggs, David aut McGregor, John L. aut Yang, Hongwei aut Sasaki, Hidetaka aut Kumar, Pankaj aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:5-6 day:09 month:06 pages:1247-1267 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 5-6 09 06 1247-1267 |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2118487401 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05322-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Tangang, Fredolin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-4919-1800 aut Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Projected rainfall Regional climate downscaling Multi-model simulations CORDEX Southeast Asia Chung, Jing Xiang aut Juneng, Liew aut Salimun, Ester aut Ngai, Sheau Tieh aut Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz aut Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal aut Cruz, Faye aut Narisma, Gemma aut Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn aut Ngo-Duc, Thanh aut Van Tan, Phan aut Singhruck, Patama aut Gunawan, Dodo aut Aldrian, Edvin aut Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena aut Grigory, Nikulin aut Remedio, Armelle Reca C. aut Sein, Dmitry V. aut Hein-Griggs, David aut McGregor, John L. aut Yang, Hongwei aut Sasaki, Hidetaka aut Kumar, Pankaj aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:5-6 day:09 month:06 pages:1247-1267 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 5-6 09 06 1247-1267 |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2118487401 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05322-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Tangang, Fredolin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-4919-1800 aut Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Projected rainfall Regional climate downscaling Multi-model simulations CORDEX Southeast Asia Chung, Jing Xiang aut Juneng, Liew aut Salimun, Ester aut Ngai, Sheau Tieh aut Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz aut Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal aut Cruz, Faye aut Narisma, Gemma aut Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn aut Ngo-Duc, Thanh aut Van Tan, Phan aut Singhruck, Patama aut Gunawan, Dodo aut Aldrian, Edvin aut Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena aut Grigory, Nikulin aut Remedio, Armelle Reca C. aut Sein, Dmitry V. aut Hein-Griggs, David aut McGregor, John L. aut Yang, Hongwei aut Sasaki, Hidetaka aut Kumar, Pankaj aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:5-6 day:09 month:06 pages:1247-1267 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 5-6 09 06 1247-1267 |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2118487401 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05322-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Tangang, Fredolin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-4919-1800 aut Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Projected rainfall Regional climate downscaling Multi-model simulations CORDEX Southeast Asia Chung, Jing Xiang aut Juneng, Liew aut Salimun, Ester aut Ngai, Sheau Tieh aut Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz aut Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal aut Cruz, Faye aut Narisma, Gemma aut Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn aut Ngo-Duc, Thanh aut Van Tan, Phan aut Singhruck, Patama aut Gunawan, Dodo aut Aldrian, Edvin aut Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena aut Grigory, Nikulin aut Remedio, Armelle Reca C. aut Sein, Dmitry V. aut Hein-Griggs, David aut McGregor, John L. aut Yang, Hongwei aut Sasaki, Hidetaka aut Kumar, Pankaj aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:5-6 day:09 month:06 pages:1247-1267 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 5-6 09 06 1247-1267 |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 doi (DE-627)OLC2118487401 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05322-2-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Tangang, Fredolin verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-4919-1800 aut Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Projected rainfall Regional climate downscaling Multi-model simulations CORDEX Southeast Asia Chung, Jing Xiang aut Juneng, Liew aut Salimun, Ester aut Ngai, Sheau Tieh aut Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz aut Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal aut Cruz, Faye aut Narisma, Gemma aut Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn aut Ngo-Duc, Thanh aut Van Tan, Phan aut Singhruck, Patama aut Gunawan, Dodo aut Aldrian, Edvin aut Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena aut Grigory, Nikulin aut Remedio, Armelle Reca C. aut Sein, Dmitry V. aut Hein-Griggs, David aut McGregor, John L. aut Yang, Hongwei aut Sasaki, Hidetaka aut Kumar, Pankaj aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. Juni, Seite 1247-1267 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:5-6 day:09 month:06 pages:1247-1267 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 5-6 09 06 1247-1267 |
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Tangang, Fredolin @@aut@@ Chung, Jing Xiang @@aut@@ Juneng, Liew @@aut@@ Salimun, Ester @@aut@@ Ngai, Sheau Tieh @@aut@@ Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz @@aut@@ Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal @@aut@@ Cruz, Faye @@aut@@ Narisma, Gemma @@aut@@ Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn @@aut@@ Ngo-Duc, Thanh @@aut@@ Van Tan, Phan @@aut@@ Singhruck, Patama @@aut@@ Gunawan, Dodo @@aut@@ Aldrian, Edvin @@aut@@ Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena @@aut@@ Grigory, Nikulin @@aut@@ Remedio, Armelle Reca C. @@aut@@ Sein, Dmitry V. @@aut@@ Hein-Griggs, David @@aut@@ McGregor, John L. @@aut@@ Yang, Hongwei @@aut@@ Sasaki, Hidetaka @@aut@@ Kumar, Pankaj @@aut@@ |
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Tangang, Fredolin Chung, Jing Xiang Juneng, Liew Salimun, Ester Ngai, Sheau Tieh Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal Cruz, Faye Narisma, Gemma Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn Ngo-Duc, Thanh Van Tan, Phan Singhruck, Patama Gunawan, Dodo Aldrian, Edvin Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena Grigory, Nikulin Remedio, Armelle Reca C. Sein, Dmitry V. Hein-Griggs, David McGregor, John L. Yang, Hongwei Sasaki, Hidetaka Kumar, Pankaj |
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projected future changes in rainfall in southeast asia based on cordex–sea multi-model simulations |
title_auth |
Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations |
abstract |
Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. © The Author(s) 2020 |
abstractGer |
Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. © The Author(s) 2020 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. © The Author(s) 2020 |
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title_short |
Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations |
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Chung, Jing Xiang Juneng, Liew Salimun, Ester Ngai, Sheau Tieh Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal Cruz, Faye Narisma, Gemma Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn Ngo-Duc, Thanh Van Tan, Phan Singhruck, Patama Gunawan, Dodo Aldrian, Edvin Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena Grigory, Nikulin Remedio, Armelle Reca C. Sein, Dmitry V. Hein-Griggs, David McGregor, John L. Yang, Hongwei Sasaki, Hidetaka Kumar, Pankaj |
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Chung, Jing Xiang Juneng, Liew Salimun, Ester Ngai, Sheau Tieh Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal Cruz, Faye Narisma, Gemma Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn Ngo-Duc, Thanh Van Tan, Phan Singhruck, Patama Gunawan, Dodo Aldrian, Edvin Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena Grigory, Nikulin Remedio, Armelle Reca C. Sein, Dmitry V. Hein-Griggs, David McGregor, John L. Yang, Hongwei Sasaki, Hidetaka Kumar, Pankaj |
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A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Projected rainfall</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Regional climate downscaling</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Multi-model simulations</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">CORDEX Southeast Asia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Chung, Jing Xiang</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Juneng, Liew</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Salimun, Ester</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ngai, Sheau Tieh</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Cruz, Faye</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Narisma, Gemma</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ngo-Duc, Thanh</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Van Tan, Phan</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Singhruck, Patama</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Gunawan, Dodo</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Aldrian, Edvin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Grigory, Nikulin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Remedio, Armelle Reca C.</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Sein, Dmitry V.</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Hein-Griggs, David</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">McGregor, John L.</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Yang, Hongwei</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Sasaki, Hidetaka</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Kumar, Pankaj</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Climate dynamics</subfield><subfield code="d">Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986</subfield><subfield code="g">55(2020), 5-6 vom: 09. 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