Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario
Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low war...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Ju, Wen-Shan [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2020 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Anmerkung: |
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986, 55(2020), 11-12 vom: 26. Aug., Seite 3117-3131 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:55 ; year:2020 ; number:11-12 ; day:26 ; month:08 ; pages:3117-3131 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC2120194602 |
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520 | |a Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. | ||
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10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 doi (DE-627)OLC2120194602 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05436-7-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Ju, Wen-Shan verfasserin aut Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. North Pacific subtropical gyre Low warming scenario Wind Uncertainty Long, Shang-Min aut Xie, Shang-Ping aut Wang, Guihua aut Du, Yan (orcid)0000-0002-7842-0801 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 11-12 vom: 26. Aug., Seite 3117-3131 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:11-12 day:26 month:08 pages:3117-3131 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 11-12 26 08 3117-3131 |
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10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 doi (DE-627)OLC2120194602 (DE-He213)s00382-020-05436-7-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Ju, Wen-Shan verfasserin aut Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario 2020 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. North Pacific subtropical gyre Low warming scenario Wind Uncertainty Long, Shang-Min aut Xie, Shang-Ping aut Wang, Guihua aut Du, Yan (orcid)0000-0002-7842-0801 aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 55(2020), 11-12 vom: 26. Aug., Seite 3117-3131 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:55 year:2020 number:11-12 day:26 month:08 pages:3117-3131 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 55 2020 11-12 26 08 3117-3131 |
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Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario |
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Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario |
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Ju, Wen-Shan |
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Climate dynamics |
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Ju, Wen-Shan Long, Shang-Min Xie, Shang-Ping Wang, Guihua Du, Yan |
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changes in the north pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °c low warming scenario |
title_auth |
Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario |
abstract |
Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
abstractGer |
Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric $ CO_{2} $ concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
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container_issue |
11-12 |
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Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario |
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7 |
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