Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity
Abstract Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical technique...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Si, Guangyao [verfasserIn] |
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Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2020 |
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Anmerkung: |
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Rock mechanics and rock engineering - Springer Vienna, 1983, 53(2020), 11 vom: 30. Juli, Seite 5111-5132 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:53 ; year:2020 ; number:11 ; day:30 ; month:07 ; pages:5111-5132 |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00603-020-02210-3 |
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Katalog-ID: |
OLC2120816964 |
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520 | |a Abstract Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical techniques to parameterise seismic data and predict seismic hazard have been developed significantly with promising results. However, similar to earthquake prediction, the prediction accuracy of HE seismic events remains a challenging task due to the complex nature of mining-induced seismic events. This paper aims to parameterise spatial, temporal and energy information conveyed by past seismic activities to provide early warnings for HE events. The 4D spatial–temporal seismic data were transferred to a 2D plane using principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied with a kernel density estimator to calculate their probability density function. The mode of probability density distribution, ρ(x)max, was proposed as a measure to quantify the clustering degree of past seismic events in the PCA space. The peaks of ρ(x)max were found as an effective precursor to predicting the onset time of future HE events. After inverse transformation, the spatial locations of ρ(x)max also indicate the potential high-risk areas that susceptible to HE events, which can be used to predict the onset location of HE events. As a supplement to the spatial–temporal information, energy/magnitude information was parameterised by the modified cumulative Benioff strain and b value. The accuracy of using these seismic parameters for the prediction of HE events has been assessed based on the seismic data collected from a Chinese coal mine. | ||
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690 VZ 16,13 19,1 ssgn Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity Spatial–temporal Clustering Seismic event Mining-induced seismicity |
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Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity |
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Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity |
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Si, Guangyao |
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Si, Guangyao Cai, Wu Wang, Shuyu Li, Xu |
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prediction of relatively high-energy seismic events using spatial–temporal parametrisation of mining-induced seismicity |
title_auth |
Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity |
abstract |
Abstract Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical techniques to parameterise seismic data and predict seismic hazard have been developed significantly with promising results. However, similar to earthquake prediction, the prediction accuracy of HE seismic events remains a challenging task due to the complex nature of mining-induced seismic events. This paper aims to parameterise spatial, temporal and energy information conveyed by past seismic activities to provide early warnings for HE events. The 4D spatial–temporal seismic data were transferred to a 2D plane using principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied with a kernel density estimator to calculate their probability density function. The mode of probability density distribution, ρ(x)max, was proposed as a measure to quantify the clustering degree of past seismic events in the PCA space. The peaks of ρ(x)max were found as an effective precursor to predicting the onset time of future HE events. After inverse transformation, the spatial locations of ρ(x)max also indicate the potential high-risk areas that susceptible to HE events, which can be used to predict the onset location of HE events. As a supplement to the spatial–temporal information, energy/magnitude information was parameterised by the modified cumulative Benioff strain and b value. The accuracy of using these seismic parameters for the prediction of HE events has been assessed based on the seismic data collected from a Chinese coal mine. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
abstractGer |
Abstract Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical techniques to parameterise seismic data and predict seismic hazard have been developed significantly with promising results. However, similar to earthquake prediction, the prediction accuracy of HE seismic events remains a challenging task due to the complex nature of mining-induced seismic events. This paper aims to parameterise spatial, temporal and energy information conveyed by past seismic activities to provide early warnings for HE events. The 4D spatial–temporal seismic data were transferred to a 2D plane using principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied with a kernel density estimator to calculate their probability density function. The mode of probability density distribution, ρ(x)max, was proposed as a measure to quantify the clustering degree of past seismic events in the PCA space. The peaks of ρ(x)max were found as an effective precursor to predicting the onset time of future HE events. After inverse transformation, the spatial locations of ρ(x)max also indicate the potential high-risk areas that susceptible to HE events, which can be used to predict the onset location of HE events. As a supplement to the spatial–temporal information, energy/magnitude information was parameterised by the modified cumulative Benioff strain and b value. The accuracy of using these seismic parameters for the prediction of HE events has been assessed based on the seismic data collected from a Chinese coal mine. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical techniques to parameterise seismic data and predict seismic hazard have been developed significantly with promising results. However, similar to earthquake prediction, the prediction accuracy of HE seismic events remains a challenging task due to the complex nature of mining-induced seismic events. This paper aims to parameterise spatial, temporal and energy information conveyed by past seismic activities to provide early warnings for HE events. The 4D spatial–temporal seismic data were transferred to a 2D plane using principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied with a kernel density estimator to calculate their probability density function. The mode of probability density distribution, ρ(x)max, was proposed as a measure to quantify the clustering degree of past seismic events in the PCA space. The peaks of ρ(x)max were found as an effective precursor to predicting the onset time of future HE events. After inverse transformation, the spatial locations of ρ(x)max also indicate the potential high-risk areas that susceptible to HE events, which can be used to predict the onset location of HE events. As a supplement to the spatial–temporal information, energy/magnitude information was parameterised by the modified cumulative Benioff strain and b value. The accuracy of using these seismic parameters for the prediction of HE events has been assessed based on the seismic data collected from a Chinese coal mine. © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020 |
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Prediction of Relatively High-Energy Seismic Events Using Spatial–Temporal Parametrisation of Mining-Induced Seismicity |
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