Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China
Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a lands...
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| Autor*in: |
Wang, Zhaoyang [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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Enthalten in: Environmental monitoring and assessment - Springer International Publishing, 1981, 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai |
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volume:195 ; year:2023 ; number:6 ; day:30 ; month:05 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 |
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OLC2143941641 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. | ||
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10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2143941641 (DE-He213)s10661-023-11398-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Wang, Zhaoyang verfasserin aut Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming Zhang, Junyi aut Li, Haiyi aut Zhang, Fengtai aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:195 year:2023 number:6 day:30 month:05 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 195 2023 6 30 05 |
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10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2143941641 (DE-He213)s10661-023-11398-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Wang, Zhaoyang verfasserin aut Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming Zhang, Junyi aut Li, Haiyi aut Zhang, Fengtai aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:195 year:2023 number:6 day:30 month:05 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 195 2023 6 30 05 |
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10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2143941641 (DE-He213)s10661-023-11398-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Wang, Zhaoyang verfasserin aut Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming Zhang, Junyi aut Li, Haiyi aut Zhang, Fengtai aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:195 year:2023 number:6 day:30 month:05 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 195 2023 6 30 05 |
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10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2143941641 (DE-He213)s10661-023-11398-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Wang, Zhaoyang verfasserin aut Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming Zhang, Junyi aut Li, Haiyi aut Zhang, Fengtai aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:195 year:2023 number:6 day:30 month:05 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 195 2023 6 30 05 |
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10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 doi (DE-627)OLC2143941641 (DE-He213)s10661-023-11398-0-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 VZ Wang, Zhaoyang verfasserin aut Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming Zhang, Junyi aut Li, Haiyi aut Zhang, Fengtai aut Enthalten in Environmental monitoring and assessment Springer International Publishing, 1981 195(2023), 6 vom: 30. Mai (DE-627)130549649 (DE-600)782621-7 (DE-576)476125413 0167-6369 nnns volume:195 year:2023 number:6 day:30 month:05 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-UMW SSG-OLC-FOR SSG-OLC-IBL AR 195 2023 6 30 05 |
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333.7 VZ Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China Ecological risk Multi-scenario simulation Spatial autocorrelation Multi-objective programming |
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Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China |
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Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China |
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Wang, Zhaoyang |
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Wang, Zhaoyang Zhang, Junyi Li, Haiyi Zhang, Fengtai |
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333.7 |
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spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in chongqing, china |
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Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China |
| abstract |
Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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Spatiotemporal pattern and multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk in mountainous cities: a case study in Chongqing, China |
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