Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific
Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lag...
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| Autor*in: |
Chen, Shangfeng [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986, 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:61 ; year:2023 ; number:7-8 ; day:19 ; month:04 ; pages:3971-3988 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Arctic sea ice | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Tropical Cyclone | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Western North Pacific | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Atmospheric wave train | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wind-evaporation-SST feedback | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Vertical wind shear | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Wen |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yu, Bin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu, Liang |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Lin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Zhibo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Aru, Hasi |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Huangfu, Jingliang |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2145163166 (DE-He213)s00382-023-06789-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Chen, Shangfeng verfasserin aut Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. Arctic sea ice Tropical Cyclone Western North Pacific Atmospheric wave train Wind-evaporation-SST feedback Vertical wind shear Chen, Wen aut Yu, Bin aut Wu, Liang aut Chen, Lin aut Li, Zhibo aut Aru, Hasi aut Huangfu, Jingliang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:7-8 day:19 month:04 pages:3971-3988 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 61 2023 7-8 19 04 3971-3988 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2145163166 (DE-He213)s00382-023-06789-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Chen, Shangfeng verfasserin aut Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. Arctic sea ice Tropical Cyclone Western North Pacific Atmospheric wave train Wind-evaporation-SST feedback Vertical wind shear Chen, Wen aut Yu, Bin aut Wu, Liang aut Chen, Lin aut Li, Zhibo aut Aru, Hasi aut Huangfu, Jingliang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:7-8 day:19 month:04 pages:3971-3988 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 61 2023 7-8 19 04 3971-3988 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2145163166 (DE-He213)s00382-023-06789-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Chen, Shangfeng verfasserin aut Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. Arctic sea ice Tropical Cyclone Western North Pacific Atmospheric wave train Wind-evaporation-SST feedback Vertical wind shear Chen, Wen aut Yu, Bin aut Wu, Liang aut Chen, Lin aut Li, Zhibo aut Aru, Hasi aut Huangfu, Jingliang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:7-8 day:19 month:04 pages:3971-3988 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 61 2023 7-8 19 04 3971-3988 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2145163166 (DE-He213)s00382-023-06789-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Chen, Shangfeng verfasserin aut Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. Arctic sea ice Tropical Cyclone Western North Pacific Atmospheric wave train Wind-evaporation-SST feedback Vertical wind shear Chen, Wen aut Yu, Bin aut Wu, Liang aut Chen, Lin aut Li, Zhibo aut Aru, Hasi aut Huangfu, Jingliang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:7-8 day:19 month:04 pages:3971-3988 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 61 2023 7-8 19 04 3971-3988 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 doi (DE-627)OLC2145163166 (DE-He213)s00382-023-06789-5-p DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 VZ 550 VZ 16,13 ssgn Chen, Shangfeng verfasserin aut Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific 2023 Text txt rdacontent ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen n rdamedia Band nc rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. Arctic sea ice Tropical Cyclone Western North Pacific Atmospheric wave train Wind-evaporation-SST feedback Vertical wind shear Chen, Wen aut Yu, Bin aut Wu, Liang aut Chen, Lin aut Li, Zhibo aut Aru, Hasi aut Huangfu, Jingliang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986 61(2023), 7-8 vom: 19. Apr., Seite 3971-3988 (DE-627)129932728 (DE-600)382992-3 (DE-576)015479005 0930-7575 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:7-8 day:19 month:04 pages:3971-3988 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_OLC SSG-OLC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-GEO GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_154 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_4277 AR 61 2023 7-8 19 04 3971-3988 |
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Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific |
| abstract |
Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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Abstract This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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