A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm
Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Shimizu, Yasuhiro [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2010 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: World Journal of Surgery - Springer-Verlag, 1996, 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:34 ; year:2010 ; number:12 ; day:16 ; month:09 ; pages:2932-2938 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 |
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SPR003426157 |
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| 520 | |a Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. | ||
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 doi (DE-627)SPR003426157 (SPR)s00268-010-0785-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Shimizu, Yasuhiro verfasserin aut A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. Main Pancreatic Duct (dpeaa)DE-He213 Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cyst Size (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mural Nodule (dpeaa)DE-He213 Neoplastic Epithelium (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kanemitsu, Yukihide aut Sano, Tsuyoshi aut Senda, Yoshiki aut Mizuno, Nobumasa aut Yamao, Kenji aut Enthalten in World Journal of Surgery Springer-Verlag, 1996 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 (DE-627)SPR003391159 nnns volume:34 year:2010 number:12 day:16 month:09 pages:2932-2938 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 34 2010 12 16 09 2932-2938 |
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 doi (DE-627)SPR003426157 (SPR)s00268-010-0785-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Shimizu, Yasuhiro verfasserin aut A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. Main Pancreatic Duct (dpeaa)DE-He213 Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cyst Size (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mural Nodule (dpeaa)DE-He213 Neoplastic Epithelium (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kanemitsu, Yukihide aut Sano, Tsuyoshi aut Senda, Yoshiki aut Mizuno, Nobumasa aut Yamao, Kenji aut Enthalten in World Journal of Surgery Springer-Verlag, 1996 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 (DE-627)SPR003391159 nnns volume:34 year:2010 number:12 day:16 month:09 pages:2932-2938 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 34 2010 12 16 09 2932-2938 |
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 doi (DE-627)SPR003426157 (SPR)s00268-010-0785-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Shimizu, Yasuhiro verfasserin aut A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. Main Pancreatic Duct (dpeaa)DE-He213 Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cyst Size (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mural Nodule (dpeaa)DE-He213 Neoplastic Epithelium (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kanemitsu, Yukihide aut Sano, Tsuyoshi aut Senda, Yoshiki aut Mizuno, Nobumasa aut Yamao, Kenji aut Enthalten in World Journal of Surgery Springer-Verlag, 1996 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 (DE-627)SPR003391159 nnns volume:34 year:2010 number:12 day:16 month:09 pages:2932-2938 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 34 2010 12 16 09 2932-2938 |
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 doi (DE-627)SPR003426157 (SPR)s00268-010-0785-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Shimizu, Yasuhiro verfasserin aut A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. Main Pancreatic Duct (dpeaa)DE-He213 Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cyst Size (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mural Nodule (dpeaa)DE-He213 Neoplastic Epithelium (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kanemitsu, Yukihide aut Sano, Tsuyoshi aut Senda, Yoshiki aut Mizuno, Nobumasa aut Yamao, Kenji aut Enthalten in World Journal of Surgery Springer-Verlag, 1996 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 (DE-627)SPR003391159 nnns volume:34 year:2010 number:12 day:16 month:09 pages:2932-2938 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 34 2010 12 16 09 2932-2938 |
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 doi (DE-627)SPR003426157 (SPR)s00268-010-0785-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Shimizu, Yasuhiro verfasserin aut A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. Main Pancreatic Duct (dpeaa)DE-He213 Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cyst Size (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mural Nodule (dpeaa)DE-He213 Neoplastic Epithelium (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kanemitsu, Yukihide aut Sano, Tsuyoshi aut Senda, Yoshiki aut Mizuno, Nobumasa aut Yamao, Kenji aut Enthalten in World Journal of Surgery Springer-Verlag, 1996 34(2010), 12 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 2932-2938 (DE-627)SPR003391159 nnns volume:34 year:2010 number:12 day:16 month:09 pages:2932-2938 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 34 2010 12 16 09 2932-2938 |
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A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm |
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A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm |
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Shimizu, Yasuhiro |
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World Journal of Surgery |
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World Journal of Surgery |
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2010 |
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Shimizu, Yasuhiro Kanemitsu, Yukihide Sano, Tsuyoshi Senda, Yoshiki Mizuno, Nobumasa Yamao, Kenji |
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34 |
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Shimizu, Yasuhiro |
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10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9 |
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nomogram for predicting the probability of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary-mucinous neoplasm |
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A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm |
| abstract |
Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 |
| abstractGer |
Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Background The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma. Conclusions The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure. © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010 |
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A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm |
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Kanemitsu, Yukihide Sano, Tsuyoshi Senda, Yoshiki Mizuno, Nobumasa Yamao, Kenji |
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