Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century

Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

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Autor*in:	Han, Fan [verfasserIn] Cook, Kerry H. [verfasserIn] Vizy, Edward K. [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2019

Schlagwörter:	Extreme events Drought African climate projection Sahel rainfall Southern Africa climate change East Africa climate change Sahel climate change

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Berlin : Springer, 1986, 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:53 ; year:2019 ; number:5-6 ; day:31 ; month:01 ; pages:2757-2777

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z

Katalog-ID:	SPR004684095

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520			\|a Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results.
650		4	\|a Extreme events \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
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650		4	\|a Sahel rainfall \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
650		4	\|a Southern Africa climate change \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
650		4	\|a East Africa climate change \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
650		4	\|a Sahel climate change \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
700	1		\|a Cook, Kerry H. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Vizy, Edward K. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
773	0	8	\|i Enthalten in \|t Climate dynamics \|d Berlin : Springer, 1986 \|g 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 \|w (DE-627)268128561 \|w (DE-600)1471747-5 \|x 1432-0894 \|7 nnns
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author_variant	f h fh k h c kh khc e k v ek ekv
matchkey_str	article:14320894:2019----::hneiitneanalvnsndyeidarsarci
hierarchy_sort_str	2019
bklnumber	38.80
publishDate	2019
allfields	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z doi (DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.80 bkl Han, Fan verfasserin aut Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cook, Kerry H. verfasserin aut Vizy, Edward K. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.80 ASE AR 53 2019 5-6 31 01 2757-2777
spelling	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z doi (DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.80 bkl Han, Fan verfasserin aut Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cook, Kerry H. verfasserin aut Vizy, Edward K. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.80 ASE AR 53 2019 5-6 31 01 2757-2777
allfields_unstemmed	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z doi (DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.80 bkl Han, Fan verfasserin aut Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cook, Kerry H. verfasserin aut Vizy, Edward K. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.80 ASE AR 53 2019 5-6 31 01 2757-2777
allfieldsGer	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z doi (DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.80 bkl Han, Fan verfasserin aut Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cook, Kerry H. verfasserin aut Vizy, Edward K. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.80 ASE AR 53 2019 5-6 31 01 2757-2777
allfieldsSound	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z doi (DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.80 bkl Han, Fan verfasserin aut Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Cook, Kerry H. verfasserin aut Vizy, Edward K. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.80 ASE AR 53 2019 5-6 31 01 2757-2777
language	English
source	Enthalten in Climate dynamics 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777
sourceStr	Enthalten in Climate dynamics 53(2019), 5-6 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 2757-2777 volume:53 year:2019 number:5-6 day:31 month:01 pages:2757-2777
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Extreme events Drought African climate projection Sahel rainfall Southern Africa climate change East Africa climate change Sahel climate change
dewey-raw	550
isfreeaccess_bool	false
container_title	Climate dynamics
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Han, Fan @@aut@@ Cook, Kerry H. @@aut@@ Vizy, Edward K. @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2019-01-31T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	268128561
dewey-sort	3550
id	SPR004684095
language_de	englisch
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author	Han, Fan
spellingShingle	Han, Fan ddc 550 bkl 38.80 misc Extreme events misc Drought misc African climate projection misc Sahel rainfall misc Southern Africa climate change misc East Africa climate change misc Sahel climate change Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
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topic_title	550 ASE 38.80 bkl Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century Extreme events (dpeaa)DE-He213 Drought (dpeaa)DE-He213 African climate projection (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel rainfall (dpeaa)DE-He213 Southern Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 East Africa climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sahel climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	ddc 550 bkl 38.80 misc Extreme events misc Drought misc African climate projection misc Sahel rainfall misc Southern Africa climate change misc East Africa climate change misc Sahel climate change
topic_unstemmed	ddc 550 bkl 38.80 misc Extreme events misc Drought misc African climate projection misc Sahel rainfall misc Southern Africa climate change misc East Africa climate change misc Sahel climate change
topic_browse	ddc 550 bkl 38.80 misc Extreme events misc Drought misc African climate projection misc Sahel rainfall misc Southern Africa climate change misc East Africa climate change misc Sahel climate change
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title	Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
ctrlnum	(DE-627)SPR004684095 (SPR)s00382-019-04653-z-e
title_full	Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
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author_browse	Han, Fan Cook, Kerry H. Vizy, Edward K.
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title_sort	changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across africa in the twenty-first century
title_auth	Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
abstract	Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results.
abstractGer	Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results.
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container_issue	5-6
title_short	Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
url	https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z
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author2	Cook, Kerry H. Vizy, Edward K.
author2Str	Cook, Kerry H. Vizy, Edward K.
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doi_str	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z
up_date	2024-07-04T02:10:59.404Z
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Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century

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