Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity

Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) i...
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Autor*in:	Golodets, Carly [verfasserIn] Sternberg, Marcelo [verfasserIn] Kigel, Jaime [verfasserIn] Boeken, Bertrand [verfasserIn] Henkin, Zalmen [verfasserIn] Seligman, No’am G. [verfasserIn] Ungar, Eugene D. [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2015

Schlagwörter:	ANPP Coefficient of variation Mean annual precipitation Precipitation variability Rangelands

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Oecologia - Berlin : Springer, 1968, 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:177 ; year:2015 ; number:4 ; day:07 ; month:02 ; pages:971-979

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5

Katalog-ID:	SPR006094201

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245	1	0	\|a Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
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520			\|a Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands.
650		4	\|a ANPP \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
650		4	\|a Coefficient of variation \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
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650		4	\|a Precipitation variability \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
650		4	\|a Rangelands \|7 (dpeaa)DE-He213
700	1		\|a Sternberg, Marcelo \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Kigel, Jaime \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Boeken, Bertrand \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Henkin, Zalmen \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Seligman, No’am G. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Ungar, Eugene D. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
773	0	8	\|i Enthalten in \|t Oecologia \|d Berlin : Springer, 1968 \|g 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 \|w (DE-627)25462975X \|w (DE-600)1462019-4 \|x 1432-1939 \|7 nnns
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856	4	0	\|u https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 \|z lizenzpflichtig \|3 Volltext
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_138
912			\|a GBV_ILN_150
912			\|a GBV_ILN_151
912			\|a GBV_ILN_152
912			\|a GBV_ILN_161
912			\|a GBV_ILN_170
912			\|a GBV_ILN_171
912			\|a GBV_ILN_187
912			\|a GBV_ILN_213
912			\|a GBV_ILN_224
912			\|a GBV_ILN_230
912			\|a GBV_ILN_250
912			\|a GBV_ILN_266
912			\|a GBV_ILN_267
912			\|a GBV_ILN_281
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_2007
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_2009
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_2049
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2050
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2055
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_2061
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936	b	k	\|a 42.90 \|q ASE
951			\|a AR
952			\|d 177 \|j 2015 \|e 4 \|b 07 \|c 02 \|h 971-979

Indexfelder

author_variant	c g cg m s ms j k jk b b bb z h zh n g s ng ngs e d u ed edu
matchkey_str	article:14321939:2015----::lmtcagseaisfebcosrdcinlnaaiiyrdetunr
hierarchy_sort_str	2015
bklnumber	42.90
publishDate	2015
allfields	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 doi (DE-627)SPR006094201 (SPR)s00442-015-3234-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Golodets, Carly verfasserin aut Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sternberg, Marcelo verfasserin aut Kigel, Jaime verfasserin aut Boeken, Bertrand verfasserin aut Henkin, Zalmen verfasserin aut Seligman, No’am G. verfasserin aut Ungar, Eugene D. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Oecologia Berlin : Springer, 1968 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 (DE-627)25462975X (DE-600)1462019-4 1432-1939 nnns volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2360 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2939 GBV_ILN_2946 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2951 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 42.90 ASE AR 177 2015 4 07 02 971-979
spelling	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 doi (DE-627)SPR006094201 (SPR)s00442-015-3234-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Golodets, Carly verfasserin aut Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sternberg, Marcelo verfasserin aut Kigel, Jaime verfasserin aut Boeken, Bertrand verfasserin aut Henkin, Zalmen verfasserin aut Seligman, No’am G. verfasserin aut Ungar, Eugene D. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Oecologia Berlin : Springer, 1968 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 (DE-627)25462975X (DE-600)1462019-4 1432-1939 nnns volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2360 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2939 GBV_ILN_2946 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2951 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 42.90 ASE AR 177 2015 4 07 02 971-979
allfields_unstemmed	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 doi (DE-627)SPR006094201 (SPR)s00442-015-3234-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Golodets, Carly verfasserin aut Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sternberg, Marcelo verfasserin aut Kigel, Jaime verfasserin aut Boeken, Bertrand verfasserin aut Henkin, Zalmen verfasserin aut Seligman, No’am G. verfasserin aut Ungar, Eugene D. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Oecologia Berlin : Springer, 1968 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 (DE-627)25462975X (DE-600)1462019-4 1432-1939 nnns volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2360 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2939 GBV_ILN_2946 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2951 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 42.90 ASE AR 177 2015 4 07 02 971-979
allfieldsGer	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 doi (DE-627)SPR006094201 (SPR)s00442-015-3234-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Golodets, Carly verfasserin aut Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sternberg, Marcelo verfasserin aut Kigel, Jaime verfasserin aut Boeken, Bertrand verfasserin aut Henkin, Zalmen verfasserin aut Seligman, No’am G. verfasserin aut Ungar, Eugene D. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Oecologia Berlin : Springer, 1968 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 (DE-627)25462975X (DE-600)1462019-4 1432-1939 nnns volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2360 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2939 GBV_ILN_2946 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2951 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 42.90 ASE AR 177 2015 4 07 02 971-979
allfieldsSound	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 doi (DE-627)SPR006094201 (SPR)s00442-015-3234-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Golodets, Carly verfasserin aut Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sternberg, Marcelo verfasserin aut Kigel, Jaime verfasserin aut Boeken, Bertrand verfasserin aut Henkin, Zalmen verfasserin aut Seligman, No’am G. verfasserin aut Ungar, Eugene D. verfasserin aut Enthalten in Oecologia Berlin : Springer, 1968 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 (DE-627)25462975X (DE-600)1462019-4 1432-1939 nnns volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2360 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2939 GBV_ILN_2946 GBV_ILN_2949 GBV_ILN_2951 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 42.90 ASE AR 177 2015 4 07 02 971-979
language	English
source	Enthalten in Oecologia 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979
sourceStr	Enthalten in Oecologia 177(2015), 4 vom: 07. Feb., Seite 971-979 volume:177 year:2015 number:4 day:07 month:02 pages:971-979
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	ANPP Coefficient of variation Mean annual precipitation Precipitation variability Rangelands
dewey-raw	590
isfreeaccess_bool	false
container_title	Oecologia
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Golodets, Carly @@aut@@ Sternberg, Marcelo @@aut@@ Kigel, Jaime @@aut@@ Boeken, Bertrand @@aut@@ Henkin, Zalmen @@aut@@ Seligman, No’am G. @@aut@@ Ungar, Eugene D. @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2015-02-07T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	25462975X
dewey-sort	3590
id	SPR006094201
language_de	englisch
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author	Golodets, Carly
spellingShingle	Golodets, Carly ddc 590 bkl 42.90 misc ANPP misc Coefficient of variation misc Mean annual precipitation misc Precipitation variability misc Rangelands Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
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topic_title	590 333.7 ASE 42.90 bkl Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity ANPP (dpeaa)DE-He213 Coefficient of variation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mean annual precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Precipitation variability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Rangelands (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	ddc 590 bkl 42.90 misc ANPP misc Coefficient of variation misc Mean annual precipitation misc Precipitation variability misc Rangelands
topic_unstemmed	ddc 590 bkl 42.90 misc ANPP misc Coefficient of variation misc Mean annual precipitation misc Precipitation variability misc Rangelands
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title	Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
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title_full	Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
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author_browse	Golodets, Carly Sternberg, Marcelo Kigel, Jaime Boeken, Bertrand Henkin, Zalmen Seligman, No’am G. Ungar, Eugene D.
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title_sort	climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
title_auth	Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
abstract	Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands.
abstractGer	Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands.
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert—Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP–precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands.
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container_issue	4
title_short	Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity
url	https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5
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author2	Sternberg, Marcelo Kigel, Jaime Boeken, Bertrand Henkin, Zalmen Seligman, No’am G. Ungar, Eugene D.
author2Str	Sternberg, Marcelo Kigel, Jaime Boeken, Bertrand Henkin, Zalmen Seligman, No’am G. Ungar, Eugene D.
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doi_str	10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5
up_date	2024-07-03T20:48:45.772Z
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Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity

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