Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China
Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipita...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Yuan, Zhe [verfasserIn] Yang, Zhiyong [verfasserIn] Yan, Denghua [verfasserIn] Yin, Jun [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2015 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Theoretical and applied climatology - Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948, 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:127 ; year:2015 ; number:1-2 ; day:19 ; month:09 ; pages:393-407 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR007340281 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Yin, Jun |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 doi (DE-627)SPR007340281 (SPR)s00704-015-1643-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl Yuan, Zhe verfasserin aut Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yang, Zhiyong verfasserin aut Yan, Denghua verfasserin aut Yin, Jun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 (DE-627)25490968X (DE-600)1463177-5 1434-4483 nnns volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE AR 127 2015 1-2 19 09 393-407 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 doi (DE-627)SPR007340281 (SPR)s00704-015-1643-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl Yuan, Zhe verfasserin aut Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yang, Zhiyong verfasserin aut Yan, Denghua verfasserin aut Yin, Jun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 (DE-627)25490968X (DE-600)1463177-5 1434-4483 nnns volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE AR 127 2015 1-2 19 09 393-407 |
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10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 doi (DE-627)SPR007340281 (SPR)s00704-015-1643-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl Yuan, Zhe verfasserin aut Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yang, Zhiyong verfasserin aut Yan, Denghua verfasserin aut Yin, Jun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 (DE-627)25490968X (DE-600)1463177-5 1434-4483 nnns volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE AR 127 2015 1-2 19 09 393-407 |
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10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 doi (DE-627)SPR007340281 (SPR)s00704-015-1643-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl Yuan, Zhe verfasserin aut Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yang, Zhiyong verfasserin aut Yan, Denghua verfasserin aut Yin, Jun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 (DE-627)25490968X (DE-600)1463177-5 1434-4483 nnns volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE AR 127 2015 1-2 19 09 393-407 |
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10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 doi (DE-627)SPR007340281 (SPR)s00704-015-1643-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl Yuan, Zhe verfasserin aut Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yang, Zhiyong verfasserin aut Yan, Denghua verfasserin aut Yin, Jun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 1948 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 (DE-627)25490968X (DE-600)1463177-5 1434-4483 nnns volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GEO SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE AR 127 2015 1-2 19 09 393-407 |
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Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 |
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Enthalten in Theoretical and applied climatology 127(2015), 1-2 vom: 19. Sept., Seite 393-407 volume:127 year:2015 number:1-2 day:19 month:09 pages:393-407 |
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River Basin Extreme Precipitation Generalize Extreme Value Yangtze River Basin Extreme Precipitation Event |
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Yuan, Zhe @@aut@@ Yang, Zhiyong @@aut@@ Yan, Denghua @@aut@@ Yin, Jun @@aut@@ |
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2015-09-19T00:00:00Z |
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Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. 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Yuan, Zhe |
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Yuan, Zhe ddc 550 bkl 38.82 misc River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation misc Generalize Extreme Value misc Yangtze River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation Event Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China |
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550 ASE 38.82 bkl Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Generalize Extreme Value (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yangtze River Basin (dpeaa)DE-He213 Extreme Precipitation Event (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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ddc 550 bkl 38.82 misc River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation misc Generalize Extreme Value misc Yangtze River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation Event |
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ddc 550 bkl 38.82 misc River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation misc Generalize Extreme Value misc Yangtze River Basin misc Extreme Precipitation Event |
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Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China |
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Theoretical and applied climatology |
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Yuan, Zhe Yang, Zhiyong Yan, Denghua Yin, Jun |
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10.1007/s00704-015-1643-3 |
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historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in china |
| title_auth |
Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China |
| abstract |
Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future. |
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| score |
7.3994255 |