How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions
Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
O’Regan, Suzanne M. [verfasserIn] |
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E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2018 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Anmerkung: |
© Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Bulletin of mathematical biology - New York, NY : Springer, 1939, 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:80 ; year:2018 ; number:6 ; day:30 ; month:04 ; pages:1630-1654 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z |
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Katalog-ID: |
SPR021202451 |
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520 | |a Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Critical transitions |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Bifurcations |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Demographic stochasticity |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Environmental stochasticity |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Early warning signals |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Additive noise |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Multiplicative noise |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
700 | 1 | |a Burton, Danielle L. |0 (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z doi (DE-627)SPR021202451 (SPR)s11538-018-0429-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng O’Regan, Suzanne M. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9446-955X aut How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Burton, Danielle L. (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 aut Enthalten in Bulletin of mathematical biology New York, NY : Springer, 1939 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 (DE-627)25463429X (DE-600)1462512-X 1522-9602 nnns volume:80 year:2018 number:6 day:30 month:04 pages:1630-1654 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 80 2018 6 30 04 1630-1654 |
spelling |
10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z doi (DE-627)SPR021202451 (SPR)s11538-018-0429-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng O’Regan, Suzanne M. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9446-955X aut How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Burton, Danielle L. (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 aut Enthalten in Bulletin of mathematical biology New York, NY : Springer, 1939 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 (DE-627)25463429X (DE-600)1462512-X 1522-9602 nnns volume:80 year:2018 number:6 day:30 month:04 pages:1630-1654 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 80 2018 6 30 04 1630-1654 |
allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z doi (DE-627)SPR021202451 (SPR)s11538-018-0429-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng O’Regan, Suzanne M. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9446-955X aut How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Burton, Danielle L. (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 aut Enthalten in Bulletin of mathematical biology New York, NY : Springer, 1939 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 (DE-627)25463429X (DE-600)1462512-X 1522-9602 nnns volume:80 year:2018 number:6 day:30 month:04 pages:1630-1654 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 80 2018 6 30 04 1630-1654 |
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10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z doi (DE-627)SPR021202451 (SPR)s11538-018-0429-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng O’Regan, Suzanne M. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9446-955X aut How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Burton, Danielle L. (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 aut Enthalten in Bulletin of mathematical biology New York, NY : Springer, 1939 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 (DE-627)25463429X (DE-600)1462512-X 1522-9602 nnns volume:80 year:2018 number:6 day:30 month:04 pages:1630-1654 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 80 2018 6 30 04 1630-1654 |
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10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z doi (DE-627)SPR021202451 (SPR)s11538-018-0429-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng O’Regan, Suzanne M. verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9446-955X aut How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions 2018 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Burton, Danielle L. (orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070 aut Enthalten in Bulletin of mathematical biology New York, NY : Springer, 1939 80(2018), 6 vom: 30. Apr., Seite 1630-1654 (DE-627)25463429X (DE-600)1462512-X 1522-9602 nnns volume:80 year:2018 number:6 day:30 month:04 pages:1630-1654 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0429-z lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_101 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_266 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 80 2018 6 30 04 1630-1654 |
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O’Regan, Suzanne M. |
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O’Regan, Suzanne M. misc Critical transitions misc Bifurcations misc Demographic stochasticity misc Environmental stochasticity misc Early warning signals misc Additive noise misc Multiplicative noise How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions |
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How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions Critical transitions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Bifurcations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Demographic stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Environmental stochasticity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early warning signals (dpeaa)DE-He213 Additive noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 Multiplicative noise (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions |
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How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions |
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O’Regan, Suzanne M. Burton, Danielle L. |
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how stochasticity influences leading indicators of critical transitions |
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How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions |
abstract |
Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 |
abstractGer |
Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition. © Society for Mathematical Biology 2018 |
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How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions |
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Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Critical transitions</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Bifurcations</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Demographic stochasticity</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Environmental stochasticity</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Early warning signals</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Additive noise</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Multiplicative noise</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Burton, Danielle L.</subfield><subfield code="0">(orcid)0000-0003-0852-0070</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Bulletin of mathematical biology</subfield><subfield code="d">New York, NY : Springer, 1939</subfield><subfield code="g">80(2018), 6 vom: 30. 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