Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts
Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summari...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Elsberry, Russell L. [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
|---|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2010 |
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| Anmerkung: |
© Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences - Berlin : Springer, 2010, 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 |
|---|---|
| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:46 ; year:2010 ; number:2 ; month:05 ; pages:217-220 |
| Links: |
|---|
| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR030646553 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. | ||
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10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 doi (DE-627)SPR030646553 (SPR)s13143-010-0014-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Elsberry, Russell L. verfasserin aut Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. Enthalten in Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Berlin : Springer, 2010 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 (DE-627)623178869 (DE-600)2545937-5 1976-7951 nnns volume:46 year:2010 number:2 month:05 pages:217-220 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 46 2010 2 05 217-220 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 doi (DE-627)SPR030646553 (SPR)s13143-010-0014-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Elsberry, Russell L. verfasserin aut Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. Enthalten in Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Berlin : Springer, 2010 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 (DE-627)623178869 (DE-600)2545937-5 1976-7951 nnns volume:46 year:2010 number:2 month:05 pages:217-220 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 46 2010 2 05 217-220 |
| allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 doi (DE-627)SPR030646553 (SPR)s13143-010-0014-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Elsberry, Russell L. verfasserin aut Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. Enthalten in Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Berlin : Springer, 2010 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 (DE-627)623178869 (DE-600)2545937-5 1976-7951 nnns volume:46 year:2010 number:2 month:05 pages:217-220 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 46 2010 2 05 217-220 |
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10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 doi (DE-627)SPR030646553 (SPR)s13143-010-0014-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Elsberry, Russell L. verfasserin aut Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. Enthalten in Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Berlin : Springer, 2010 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 (DE-627)623178869 (DE-600)2545937-5 1976-7951 nnns volume:46 year:2010 number:2 month:05 pages:217-220 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 46 2010 2 05 217-220 |
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10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 doi (DE-627)SPR030646553 (SPR)s13143-010-0014-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Elsberry, Russell L. verfasserin aut Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts 2010 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. Enthalten in Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Berlin : Springer, 2010 46(2010), 2 vom: Mai, Seite 217-220 (DE-627)623178869 (DE-600)2545937-5 1976-7951 nnns volume:46 year:2010 number:2 month:05 pages:217-220 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0014-3 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 46 2010 2 05 217-220 |
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Elsberry, Russell L. Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings. © Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands 2010 |
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Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts |
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Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. 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