Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities

Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. A...
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Autor*in:	Zhu, He [verfasserIn] Wilson, Fernando A. Stimpson, Jim P. Hilsenrath, Peter E.

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2015

Schlagwörter:	Motorcycles Mortality Traffic accidents

Anmerkung:	© Zhu et al. 2015

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Injury Epidemiology - Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014, 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept.
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:2 ; year:2015 ; number:1 ; day:17 ; month:09

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3

Katalog-ID:	SPR036889016

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520			\|a Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.
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allfields	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 doi (DE-627)SPR036889016 (SPR)s40621-015-0054-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zhu, He verfasserin aut Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Zhu et al. 2015 Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilson, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0002-8801-9026 aut Stimpson, Jim P. aut Hilsenrath, Peter E. aut Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. (DE-627)782241859 (DE-600)2764253-7 2197-1714 nnns volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 2 2015 1 17 09
spelling	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 doi (DE-627)SPR036889016 (SPR)s40621-015-0054-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zhu, He verfasserin aut Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Zhu et al. 2015 Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilson, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0002-8801-9026 aut Stimpson, Jim P. aut Hilsenrath, Peter E. aut Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. (DE-627)782241859 (DE-600)2764253-7 2197-1714 nnns volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 2 2015 1 17 09
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 doi (DE-627)SPR036889016 (SPR)s40621-015-0054-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zhu, He verfasserin aut Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Zhu et al. 2015 Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilson, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0002-8801-9026 aut Stimpson, Jim P. aut Hilsenrath, Peter E. aut Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. (DE-627)782241859 (DE-600)2764253-7 2197-1714 nnns volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 2 2015 1 17 09
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 doi (DE-627)SPR036889016 (SPR)s40621-015-0054-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zhu, He verfasserin aut Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Zhu et al. 2015 Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilson, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0002-8801-9026 aut Stimpson, Jim P. aut Hilsenrath, Peter E. aut Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. (DE-627)782241859 (DE-600)2764253-7 2197-1714 nnns volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 2 2015 1 17 09
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 doi (DE-627)SPR036889016 (SPR)s40621-015-0054-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zhu, He verfasserin aut Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities 2015 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © Zhu et al. 2015 Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilson, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0002-8801-9026 aut Stimpson, Jim P. aut Hilsenrath, Peter E. aut Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2014 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. (DE-627)782241859 (DE-600)2764253-7 2197-1714 nnns volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 2 2015 1 17 09
language	English
source	Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09
sourceStr	Enthalten in Injury Epidemiology 2(2015), 1 vom: 17. Sept. volume:2 year:2015 number:1 day:17 month:09
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Motorcycles Mortality Traffic accidents
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container_title	Injury Epidemiology
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Zhu, He @@aut@@ Wilson, Fernando A. @@aut@@ Stimpson, Jim P. @@aut@@ Hilsenrath, Peter E. @@aut@@
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Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. 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author	Zhu, He
spellingShingle	Zhu, He misc Motorcycles misc Mortality misc Traffic accidents Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
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topic_title	Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities Motorcycles (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mortality (dpeaa)DE-He213 Traffic accidents (dpeaa)DE-He213
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title	Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
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title_full	Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
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title_sort	rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
title_auth	Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
abstract	Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. © Zhu et al. 2015
abstractGer	Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. © Zhu et al. 2015
abstract_unstemmed	Background We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders. © Zhu et al. 2015
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title_short	Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities
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author2	Wilson, Fernando A. Stimpson, Jim P. Hilsenrath, Peter E.
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Methods The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. Results New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. 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