Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data

Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Ziauddeen, Nida [verfasserIn] Wilding, Sam [verfasserIn] Roderick, Paul J. [verfasserIn] Macklon, Nicholas S. [verfasserIn] Smith, Dianna [verfasserIn] Chase, Debbie [verfasserIn] Alwan, Nisreen A. [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2020

Schlagwörter:	Pregnancy Early life Overweight Obesity Prediction

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: BMC medicine - London : BioMed Central, 2003, 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:18 ; year:2020 ; number:1 ; day:11 ; month:05

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z

Katalog-ID:	SPR039668223

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520			\|a Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care.
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700	1		\|a Roderick, Paul J. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Macklon, Nicholas S. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Smith, Dianna \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Chase, Debbie \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Alwan, Nisreen A. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
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allfields	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z doi (DE-627)SPR039668223 (SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE Ziauddeen, Nida verfasserin aut Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Pregnancy (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early life (dpeaa)DE-He213 Overweight (dpeaa)DE-He213 Obesity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Prediction (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilding, Sam verfasserin aut Roderick, Paul J. verfasserin aut Macklon, Nicholas S. verfasserin aut Smith, Dianna verfasserin aut Chase, Debbie verfasserin aut Alwan, Nisreen A. verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC medicine London : BioMed Central, 2003 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 1741-7015 nnns volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2020 1 11 05
spelling	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z doi (DE-627)SPR039668223 (SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE Ziauddeen, Nida verfasserin aut Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Pregnancy (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early life (dpeaa)DE-He213 Overweight (dpeaa)DE-He213 Obesity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Prediction (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilding, Sam verfasserin aut Roderick, Paul J. verfasserin aut Macklon, Nicholas S. verfasserin aut Smith, Dianna verfasserin aut Chase, Debbie verfasserin aut Alwan, Nisreen A. verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC medicine London : BioMed Central, 2003 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 1741-7015 nnns volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2020 1 11 05
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z doi (DE-627)SPR039668223 (SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE Ziauddeen, Nida verfasserin aut Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Pregnancy (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early life (dpeaa)DE-He213 Overweight (dpeaa)DE-He213 Obesity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Prediction (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilding, Sam verfasserin aut Roderick, Paul J. verfasserin aut Macklon, Nicholas S. verfasserin aut Smith, Dianna verfasserin aut Chase, Debbie verfasserin aut Alwan, Nisreen A. verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC medicine London : BioMed Central, 2003 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 1741-7015 nnns volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2020 1 11 05
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z doi (DE-627)SPR039668223 (SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE Ziauddeen, Nida verfasserin aut Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Pregnancy (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early life (dpeaa)DE-He213 Overweight (dpeaa)DE-He213 Obesity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Prediction (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilding, Sam verfasserin aut Roderick, Paul J. verfasserin aut Macklon, Nicholas S. verfasserin aut Smith, Dianna verfasserin aut Chase, Debbie verfasserin aut Alwan, Nisreen A. verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC medicine London : BioMed Central, 2003 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 1741-7015 nnns volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2020 1 11 05
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z doi (DE-627)SPR039668223 (SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE Ziauddeen, Nida verfasserin aut Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care. Pregnancy (dpeaa)DE-He213 Early life (dpeaa)DE-He213 Overweight (dpeaa)DE-He213 Obesity (dpeaa)DE-He213 Prediction (dpeaa)DE-He213 Wilding, Sam verfasserin aut Roderick, Paul J. verfasserin aut Macklon, Nicholas S. verfasserin aut Smith, Dianna verfasserin aut Chase, Debbie verfasserin aut Alwan, Nisreen A. verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC medicine London : BioMed Central, 2003 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai (DE-627)377271225 (DE-600)2131669-7 1741-7015 nnns volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 18 2020 1 11 05
language	English
source	Enthalten in BMC medicine 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05
sourceStr	Enthalten in BMC medicine 18(2020), 1 vom: 11. Mai volume:18 year:2020 number:1 day:11 month:05
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Pregnancy Early life Overweight Obesity Prediction
dewey-raw	610
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	BMC medicine
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Ziauddeen, Nida @@aut@@ Wilding, Sam @@aut@@ Roderick, Paul J. @@aut@@ Macklon, Nicholas S. @@aut@@ Smith, Dianna @@aut@@ Chase, Debbie @@aut@@ Alwan, Nisreen A. @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2020-05-11T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	377271225
dewey-sort	3610
id	SPR039668223
language_de	englisch
fullrecord	<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR039668223</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230519233447.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">201007s2020 xx \|\|\|\|\|o 00\| \|\|eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR039668223</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s12916-020-01568-z-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">610</subfield><subfield code="q">ASE</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ziauddeen, Nida</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2020</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. 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author	Ziauddeen, Nida
spellingShingle	Ziauddeen, Nida ddc 610 misc Pregnancy misc Early life misc Overweight misc Obesity misc Prediction Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
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title	Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
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title_full	Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
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author_browse	Ziauddeen, Nida Wilding, Sam Roderick, Paul J. Macklon, Nicholas S. Smith, Dianna Chase, Debbie Alwan, Nisreen A.
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title_sort	predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
title_auth	Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
abstract	Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care.
abstractGer	Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care.
abstract_unstemmed	Background Nearly a third of children in the UK are overweight, with the prevalence in the most deprived areas more than twice that in the least deprived. The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. A tool based on these models can be used to quantify clustering of risk for childhood obesity as early as the first trimester of pregnancy, and can strengthen the long-term preventive element of antenatal and early years care.
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title_short	Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data
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The aim was to develop a risk identification model for childhood overweight/obesity applied during pregnancy and early life using routinely collected population-level healthcare data. Methods A population-based anonymised linked cohort of maternal antenatal records (January 2003 to September 2013) and birth/early-life data for their children with linked body mass index (BMI) measurements at 4–5 years (n = 29,060 children) in Hampshire, UK was used. Childhood age- and sex-adjusted BMI at 4–5 years, measured between September 2007 and November 2018, using a clinical cut-off of ≥ 91st centile for overweight/obesity. Logistic regression models together with multivariable fractional polynomials were used to select model predictors and to identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predict the outcome. Results Fifteen percent of children had a BMI ≥ 91st centile. Models were developed in stages, incorporating data collected at first antenatal booking appointment, later pregnancy/birth, and early-life predictors (1 and 2 years). The area under the curve (AUC) was lowest (0.64) for the model only incorporating maternal predictors from early pregnancy and highest for the model incorporating all factors up to weight at 2 years for predicting outcome at 4–5 years (0.83). The models were well calibrated. The prediction models identify 21% (at booking) to 24% (at ~ 2 years) of children as being at high risk of overweight or obese by the age of 4–5 years (as defined by a ≥ 20% risk score). Early pregnancy predictors included maternal BMI, smoking status, maternal age, and ethnicity. Early-life predictors included birthweight, baby’s sex, and weight at 1 or 2 years of age. Conclusions Although predictive ability was lower for the early pregnancy models, maternal predictors remained consistent across the models; thus, high-risk groups could be identified at an early stage with more precise estimation as the child grows. 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Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data

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