Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions
Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the populatio...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Liu, Junling [verfasserIn] Yin, Mingjian [verfasserIn] Wang, Ke [verfasserIn] Zou, Ji [verfasserIn] Kong, Ying [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2020 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change - Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996, 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:25 ; year:2020 ; number:6 ; day:24 ; month:06 ; pages:1053-1071 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR041146611 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Urbanization |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population migration |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy service demand |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Low carbon transition |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Ke |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zou, Ji |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kong, Ying |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 doi (DE-627)SPR041146611 (SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 690 ASE 43.47 bkl Liu, Junling verfasserin aut Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Population migration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy service demand (dpeaa)DE-He213 Low carbon transition (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy system model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yin, Mingjian verfasserin aut Wang, Ke verfasserin aut Zou, Ji verfasserin aut Kong, Ying verfasserin aut Enthalten in Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 (DE-627)32043446X (DE-600)2004169-X 1573-1596 nnns volume:25 year:2020 number:6 day:24 month:06 pages:1053-1071 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 43.47 ASE AR 25 2020 6 24 06 1053-1071 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 doi (DE-627)SPR041146611 (SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 690 ASE 43.47 bkl Liu, Junling verfasserin aut Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Population migration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy service demand (dpeaa)DE-He213 Low carbon transition (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy system model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yin, Mingjian verfasserin aut Wang, Ke verfasserin aut Zou, Ji verfasserin aut Kong, Ying verfasserin aut Enthalten in Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 (DE-627)32043446X (DE-600)2004169-X 1573-1596 nnns volume:25 year:2020 number:6 day:24 month:06 pages:1053-1071 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 43.47 ASE AR 25 2020 6 24 06 1053-1071 |
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10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 doi (DE-627)SPR041146611 (SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 690 ASE 43.47 bkl Liu, Junling verfasserin aut Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Population migration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy service demand (dpeaa)DE-He213 Low carbon transition (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy system model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yin, Mingjian verfasserin aut Wang, Ke verfasserin aut Zou, Ji verfasserin aut Kong, Ying verfasserin aut Enthalten in Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 (DE-627)32043446X (DE-600)2004169-X 1573-1596 nnns volume:25 year:2020 number:6 day:24 month:06 pages:1053-1071 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 43.47 ASE AR 25 2020 6 24 06 1053-1071 |
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10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 doi (DE-627)SPR041146611 (SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 690 ASE 43.47 bkl Liu, Junling verfasserin aut Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Population migration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy service demand (dpeaa)DE-He213 Low carbon transition (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy system model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yin, Mingjian verfasserin aut Wang, Ke verfasserin aut Zou, Ji verfasserin aut Kong, Ying verfasserin aut Enthalten in Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 (DE-627)32043446X (DE-600)2004169-X 1573-1596 nnns volume:25 year:2020 number:6 day:24 month:06 pages:1053-1071 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 43.47 ASE AR 25 2020 6 24 06 1053-1071 |
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10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 doi (DE-627)SPR041146611 (SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 333.7 690 ASE 43.47 bkl Liu, Junling verfasserin aut Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Population migration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy service demand (dpeaa)DE-He213 Low carbon transition (dpeaa)DE-He213 Energy system model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Yin, Mingjian verfasserin aut Wang, Ke verfasserin aut Zou, Ji verfasserin aut Kong, Ying verfasserin aut Enthalten in Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1996 25(2020), 6 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 1053-1071 (DE-627)32043446X (DE-600)2004169-X 1573-1596 nnns volume:25 year:2020 number:6 day:24 month:06 pages:1053-1071 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 43.47 ASE AR 25 2020 6 24 06 1053-1071 |
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR041146611</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20220111022957.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">201007s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR041146611</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s11027-020-09919-0-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">333.7</subfield><subfield code="a">690</subfield><subfield code="q">ASE</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">43.47</subfield><subfield code="2">bkl</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Liu, Junling</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2020</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). 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long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on china’s energy demand and $ co_{2} $ emissions |
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Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions |
| abstract |
Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process. |
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6 |
| title_short |
Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and $ CO_{2} $ emissions |
| url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 |
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Yin, Mingjian Wang, Ke Zou, Ji Kong, Ying |
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Yin, Mingjian Wang, Ke Zou, Ji Kong, Ying |
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| doi_str |
10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0 |
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2024-07-03T20:30:42.531Z |
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| score |
7.399376 |