Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey

Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and tim...
Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Brew, Joe [verfasserIn] Pradhan, Menno [verfasserIn] Broerse, Jacqueline [verfasserIn] Bassat, Quique [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2020

Schlagwörter:	Malaria Eradication Elimination Mixed methods Survey Crowdsourcing Probability Opportunity cost

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Malaria journal - London : BioMed Central, 2002, 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt.
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:19 ; year:2020 ; number:1 ; day:08 ; month:10

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2

Katalog-ID:	SPR041245318

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520			\|a Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments.
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allfields	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 doi (DE-627)SPR041245318 (SPR)s12936-020-03430-2-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE 44.00 bkl Brew, Joe verfasserin aut Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments. Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213 Pradhan, Menno verfasserin aut Broerse, Jacqueline verfasserin aut Bassat, Quique verfasserin aut Enthalten in Malaria journal London : BioMed Central, 2002 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 1475-2875 nnns volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 ASE AR 19 2020 1 08 10
spelling	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 doi (DE-627)SPR041245318 (SPR)s12936-020-03430-2-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE 44.00 bkl Brew, Joe verfasserin aut Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments. Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213 Pradhan, Menno verfasserin aut Broerse, Jacqueline verfasserin aut Bassat, Quique verfasserin aut Enthalten in Malaria journal London : BioMed Central, 2002 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 1475-2875 nnns volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 ASE AR 19 2020 1 08 10
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 doi (DE-627)SPR041245318 (SPR)s12936-020-03430-2-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE 44.00 bkl Brew, Joe verfasserin aut Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments. Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213 Pradhan, Menno verfasserin aut Broerse, Jacqueline verfasserin aut Bassat, Quique verfasserin aut Enthalten in Malaria journal London : BioMed Central, 2002 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 1475-2875 nnns volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 ASE AR 19 2020 1 08 10
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 doi (DE-627)SPR041245318 (SPR)s12936-020-03430-2-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE 44.00 bkl Brew, Joe verfasserin aut Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments. Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213 Pradhan, Menno verfasserin aut Broerse, Jacqueline verfasserin aut Bassat, Quique verfasserin aut Enthalten in Malaria journal London : BioMed Central, 2002 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 1475-2875 nnns volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 ASE AR 19 2020 1 08 10
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 doi (DE-627)SPR041245318 (SPR)s12936-020-03430-2-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 ASE 44.00 bkl Brew, Joe verfasserin aut Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments. Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213 Pradhan, Menno verfasserin aut Broerse, Jacqueline verfasserin aut Bassat, Quique verfasserin aut Enthalten in Malaria journal London : BioMed Central, 2002 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. (DE-627)355986582 (DE-600)2091229-8 1475-2875 nnns volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 ASE AR 19 2020 1 08 10
language	English
source	Enthalten in Malaria journal 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10
sourceStr	Enthalten in Malaria journal 19(2020), 1 vom: 08. Okt. volume:19 year:2020 number:1 day:08 month:10
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Malaria Eradication Elimination Mixed methods Survey Crowdsourcing Probability Opportunity cost
dewey-raw	610
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	Malaria journal
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Brew, Joe @@aut@@ Pradhan, Menno @@aut@@ Broerse, Jacqueline @@aut@@ Bassat, Quique @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2020-10-08T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	355986582
dewey-sort	3610
id	SPR041245318
language_de	englisch
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Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. 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author	Brew, Joe
spellingShingle	Brew, Joe ddc 610 bkl 44.00 misc Malaria misc Eradication misc Elimination misc Mixed methods misc Survey misc Crowdsourcing misc Probability misc Opportunity cost Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
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topic_title	610 ASE 44.00 bkl Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey Malaria (dpeaa)DE-He213 Eradication (dpeaa)DE-He213 Elimination (dpeaa)DE-He213 Mixed methods (dpeaa)DE-He213 Survey (dpeaa)DE-He213 Crowdsourcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Probability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Opportunity cost (dpeaa)DE-He213
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title	Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
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title_full	Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
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title_sort	researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
title_auth	Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
abstract	Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments.
abstractGer	Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments.
abstract_unstemmed	Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments.
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title_short	Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey
url	https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03430-2
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Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey

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