Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region
Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and pl...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Li, Peixian [verfasserIn] Zhu, Wenquan [verfasserIn] Xie, Zhiying [verfasserIn] Qiao, Kun [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2019 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Journal of forestry research - Harbin : Univ., 1990, 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:31 ; year:2019 ; number:6 ; day:10 ; month:07 ; pages:2255-2272 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR041319389 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Zucc. |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate warming |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Potential distribution |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a MaxEnt |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Conservation and cultivation |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu, Wenquan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xie, Zhiying |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Qiao, Kun |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:31 |g year:2019 |g number:6 |g day:10 |g month:07 |g pages:2255-2272 |
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10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 doi (DE-627)SPR041319389 (SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 ASE Li, Peixian verfasserin aut Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhu, Wenquan verfasserin aut Xie, Zhiying verfasserin aut Qiao, Kun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of forestry research Harbin : Univ., 1990 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 (DE-627)529093545 (DE-600)2299615-1 1993-0607 nnns volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-FOR SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_121 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2036 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2700 GBV_ILN_2817 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_4753 AR 31 2019 6 10 07 2255-2272 |
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10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 doi (DE-627)SPR041319389 (SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 ASE Li, Peixian verfasserin aut Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhu, Wenquan verfasserin aut Xie, Zhiying verfasserin aut Qiao, Kun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of forestry research Harbin : Univ., 1990 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 (DE-627)529093545 (DE-600)2299615-1 1993-0607 nnns volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-FOR SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_121 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2036 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2700 GBV_ILN_2817 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_4753 AR 31 2019 6 10 07 2255-2272 |
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10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 doi (DE-627)SPR041319389 (SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 ASE Li, Peixian verfasserin aut Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhu, Wenquan verfasserin aut Xie, Zhiying verfasserin aut Qiao, Kun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of forestry research Harbin : Univ., 1990 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 (DE-627)529093545 (DE-600)2299615-1 1993-0607 nnns volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-FOR SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_121 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2036 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2700 GBV_ILN_2817 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_4753 AR 31 2019 6 10 07 2255-2272 |
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10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 doi (DE-627)SPR041319389 (SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 ASE Li, Peixian verfasserin aut Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhu, Wenquan verfasserin aut Xie, Zhiying verfasserin aut Qiao, Kun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of forestry research Harbin : Univ., 1990 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 (DE-627)529093545 (DE-600)2299615-1 1993-0607 nnns volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-FOR SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_121 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2036 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2700 GBV_ILN_2817 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_4753 AR 31 2019 6 10 07 2255-2272 |
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10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 doi (DE-627)SPR041319389 (SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 630 640 ASE Li, Peixian verfasserin aut Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region 2019 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhu, Wenquan verfasserin aut Xie, Zhiying verfasserin aut Qiao, Kun verfasserin aut Enthalten in Journal of forestry research Harbin : Univ., 1990 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 (DE-627)529093545 (DE-600)2299615-1 1993-0607 nnns volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-FOR SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_121 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_374 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_647 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2018 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2036 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2070 GBV_ILN_2086 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2116 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_2700 GBV_ILN_2817 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4277 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4346 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4392 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 GBV_ILN_4753 AR 31 2019 6 10 07 2255-2272 |
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Enthalten in Journal of forestry research 31(2019), 6 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2255-2272 volume:31 year:2019 number:6 day:10 month:07 pages:2255-2272 |
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Li, Peixian @@aut@@ Zhu, Wenquan @@aut@@ Xie, Zhiying @@aut@@ Qiao, Kun @@aut@@ |
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Li, Peixian |
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Li, Peixian ddc 630 misc Zucc. misc Climate warming misc Potential distribution misc MaxEnt misc Conservation and cultivation Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
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630 640 ASE Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region Zucc. (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Potential distribution (dpeaa)DE-He213 MaxEnt (dpeaa)DE-He213 Conservation and cultivation (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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ddc 630 misc Zucc. misc Climate warming misc Potential distribution misc MaxEnt misc Conservation and cultivation |
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Journal of forestry research |
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Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
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Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
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Li, Peixian |
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Journal of forestry research |
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Li, Peixian Zhu, Wenquan Xie, Zhiying Qiao, Kun |
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Elektronische Aufsätze |
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Li, Peixian |
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integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered taxus wallichiana in the himalaya–hengduan mountain region |
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Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
| abstract |
Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability. |
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Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region |
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR041319389</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20220111091835.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">201102s2019 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR041319389</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s11676-019-01009-5-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">630</subfield><subfield code="a">640</subfield><subfield code="q">ASE</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Li, Peixian</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2019</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. 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