Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperatu...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Smith, Steven J [verfasserIn] Chateau, Jean [verfasserIn] Dorheim, Kalyn [verfasserIn] Drouet, Laurent [verfasserIn] Durand-Lasserve, Olivier [verfasserIn] Fricko, Oliver [verfasserIn] Fujimori, Shinichiro [verfasserIn] Hanaoka, Tatsuya [verfasserIn] Harmsen, Mathijs [verfasserIn] Hilaire, Jérôme [verfasserIn] Keramidas, Kimon [verfasserIn] Klimont, Zbigniew [verfasserIn] Luderer, Gunnar [verfasserIn] Moura, Maria Cecilia P. [verfasserIn] Riahi, Keywan [verfasserIn] Rogelj, Joeri [verfasserIn] Sano, Fuminori [verfasserIn] van Vuuren, Detlef P. [verfasserIn] Wada, Kenichi [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2020 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climatic change - Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977, 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:163 ; year:2020 ; number:3 ; day:17 ; month:09 ; pages:1427-1442 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 |
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Katalog-ID: |
SPR042434726 |
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520 | |a Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Climate change |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Air pollution |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Radiative forcing |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Black carbon |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Methane |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
700 | 1 | |a Chateau, Jean |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Dorheim, Kalyn |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Drouet, Laurent |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Durand-Lasserve, Olivier |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Fricko, Oliver |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Fujimori, Shinichiro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Hanaoka, Tatsuya |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Harmsen, Mathijs |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Hilaire, Jérôme |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Keramidas, Kimon |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Klimont, Zbigniew |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Luderer, Gunnar |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Moura, Maria Cecilia P. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Riahi, Keywan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Rogelj, Joeri |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Sano, Fuminori |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a van Vuuren, Detlef P. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Wada, Kenichi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 doi (DE-627)SPR042434726 (DE-599)SPRs10584-020-02794-3-e (SPR)s10584-020-02794-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl 43.47 bkl Smith, Steven J verfasserin aut Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Air pollution (dpeaa)DE-He213 Radiative forcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Black carbon (dpeaa)DE-He213 Methane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Chateau, Jean verfasserin aut Dorheim, Kalyn verfasserin aut Drouet, Laurent verfasserin aut Durand-Lasserve, Olivier verfasserin aut Fricko, Oliver verfasserin aut Fujimori, Shinichiro verfasserin aut Hanaoka, Tatsuya verfasserin aut Harmsen, Mathijs verfasserin aut Hilaire, Jérôme verfasserin aut Keramidas, Kimon verfasserin aut Klimont, Zbigniew verfasserin aut Luderer, Gunnar verfasserin aut Moura, Maria Cecilia P. verfasserin aut Riahi, Keywan verfasserin aut Rogelj, Joeri verfasserin aut Sano, Fuminori verfasserin aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut Wada, Kenichi verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climatic change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 (DE-627)270429514 (DE-600)1477652-2 1573-1480 nnns volume:163 year:2020 number:3 day:17 month:09 pages:1427-1442 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE 43.47 ASE AR 163 2020 3 17 09 1427-1442 |
spelling |
10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 doi (DE-627)SPR042434726 (DE-599)SPRs10584-020-02794-3-e (SPR)s10584-020-02794-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl 43.47 bkl Smith, Steven J verfasserin aut Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Air pollution (dpeaa)DE-He213 Radiative forcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Black carbon (dpeaa)DE-He213 Methane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Chateau, Jean verfasserin aut Dorheim, Kalyn verfasserin aut Drouet, Laurent verfasserin aut Durand-Lasserve, Olivier verfasserin aut Fricko, Oliver verfasserin aut Fujimori, Shinichiro verfasserin aut Hanaoka, Tatsuya verfasserin aut Harmsen, Mathijs verfasserin aut Hilaire, Jérôme verfasserin aut Keramidas, Kimon verfasserin aut Klimont, Zbigniew verfasserin aut Luderer, Gunnar verfasserin aut Moura, Maria Cecilia P. verfasserin aut Riahi, Keywan verfasserin aut Rogelj, Joeri verfasserin aut Sano, Fuminori verfasserin aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut Wada, Kenichi verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climatic change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 (DE-627)270429514 (DE-600)1477652-2 1573-1480 nnns volume:163 year:2020 number:3 day:17 month:09 pages:1427-1442 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE 43.47 ASE AR 163 2020 3 17 09 1427-1442 |
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10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 doi (DE-627)SPR042434726 (DE-599)SPRs10584-020-02794-3-e (SPR)s10584-020-02794-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl 43.47 bkl Smith, Steven J verfasserin aut Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Air pollution (dpeaa)DE-He213 Radiative forcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Black carbon (dpeaa)DE-He213 Methane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Chateau, Jean verfasserin aut Dorheim, Kalyn verfasserin aut Drouet, Laurent verfasserin aut Durand-Lasserve, Olivier verfasserin aut Fricko, Oliver verfasserin aut Fujimori, Shinichiro verfasserin aut Hanaoka, Tatsuya verfasserin aut Harmsen, Mathijs verfasserin aut Hilaire, Jérôme verfasserin aut Keramidas, Kimon verfasserin aut Klimont, Zbigniew verfasserin aut Luderer, Gunnar verfasserin aut Moura, Maria Cecilia P. verfasserin aut Riahi, Keywan verfasserin aut Rogelj, Joeri verfasserin aut Sano, Fuminori verfasserin aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut Wada, Kenichi verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climatic change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 (DE-627)270429514 (DE-600)1477652-2 1573-1480 nnns volume:163 year:2020 number:3 day:17 month:09 pages:1427-1442 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE 43.47 ASE AR 163 2020 3 17 09 1427-1442 |
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10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 doi (DE-627)SPR042434726 (DE-599)SPRs10584-020-02794-3-e (SPR)s10584-020-02794-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl 43.47 bkl Smith, Steven J verfasserin aut Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Air pollution (dpeaa)DE-He213 Radiative forcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Black carbon (dpeaa)DE-He213 Methane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Chateau, Jean verfasserin aut Dorheim, Kalyn verfasserin aut Drouet, Laurent verfasserin aut Durand-Lasserve, Olivier verfasserin aut Fricko, Oliver verfasserin aut Fujimori, Shinichiro verfasserin aut Hanaoka, Tatsuya verfasserin aut Harmsen, Mathijs verfasserin aut Hilaire, Jérôme verfasserin aut Keramidas, Kimon verfasserin aut Klimont, Zbigniew verfasserin aut Luderer, Gunnar verfasserin aut Moura, Maria Cecilia P. verfasserin aut Riahi, Keywan verfasserin aut Rogelj, Joeri verfasserin aut Sano, Fuminori verfasserin aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut Wada, Kenichi verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climatic change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 (DE-627)270429514 (DE-600)1477652-2 1573-1480 nnns volume:163 year:2020 number:3 day:17 month:09 pages:1427-1442 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE 43.47 ASE AR 163 2020 3 17 09 1427-1442 |
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10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 doi (DE-627)SPR042434726 (DE-599)SPRs10584-020-02794-3-e (SPR)s10584-020-02794-3-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 550 ASE 38.82 bkl 43.47 bkl Smith, Steven J verfasserin aut Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis 2020 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Air pollution (dpeaa)DE-He213 Radiative forcing (dpeaa)DE-He213 Black carbon (dpeaa)DE-He213 Methane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Chateau, Jean verfasserin aut Dorheim, Kalyn verfasserin aut Drouet, Laurent verfasserin aut Durand-Lasserve, Olivier verfasserin aut Fricko, Oliver verfasserin aut Fujimori, Shinichiro verfasserin aut Hanaoka, Tatsuya verfasserin aut Harmsen, Mathijs verfasserin aut Hilaire, Jérôme verfasserin aut Keramidas, Kimon verfasserin aut Klimont, Zbigniew verfasserin aut Luderer, Gunnar verfasserin aut Moura, Maria Cecilia P. verfasserin aut Riahi, Keywan verfasserin aut Rogelj, Joeri verfasserin aut Sano, Fuminori verfasserin aut van Vuuren, Detlef P. verfasserin aut Wada, Kenichi verfasserin aut Enthalten in Climatic change Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1977 163(2020), 3 vom: 17. Sept., Seite 1427-1442 (DE-627)270429514 (DE-600)1477652-2 1573-1480 nnns volume:163 year:2020 number:3 day:17 month:09 pages:1427-1442 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OPC-GGO SSG-OPC-ASE GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 38.82 ASE 43.47 ASE AR 163 2020 3 17 09 1427-1442 |
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Smith, Steven J @@aut@@ Chateau, Jean @@aut@@ Dorheim, Kalyn @@aut@@ Drouet, Laurent @@aut@@ Durand-Lasserve, Olivier @@aut@@ Fricko, Oliver @@aut@@ Fujimori, Shinichiro @@aut@@ Hanaoka, Tatsuya @@aut@@ Harmsen, Mathijs @@aut@@ Hilaire, Jérôme @@aut@@ Keramidas, Kimon @@aut@@ Klimont, Zbigniew @@aut@@ Luderer, Gunnar @@aut@@ Moura, Maria Cecilia P. @@aut@@ Riahi, Keywan @@aut@@ Rogelj, Joeri @@aut@@ Sano, Fuminori @@aut@@ van Vuuren, Detlef P. @@aut@@ Wada, Kenichi @@aut@@ |
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This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. 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author |
Smith, Steven J |
spellingShingle |
Smith, Steven J ddc 550 bkl 38.82 bkl 43.47 misc Climate change misc Air pollution misc Radiative forcing misc Black carbon misc Methane Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
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Smith, Steven J |
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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
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Smith, Steven J Chateau, Jean Dorheim, Kalyn Drouet, Laurent Durand-Lasserve, Olivier Fricko, Oliver Fujimori, Shinichiro Hanaoka, Tatsuya Harmsen, Mathijs Hilaire, Jérôme Keramidas, Kimon Klimont, Zbigniew Luderer, Gunnar Moura, Maria Cecilia P. Riahi, Keywan Rogelj, Joeri Sano, Fuminori van Vuuren, Detlef P. Wada, Kenichi |
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impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
abstract |
Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. |
abstractGer |
Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane ($ CH_{4} $) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing $ CH_{4} $ and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. |
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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis |
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score |
7.401412 |