Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China

Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Zheng, Zhiyuan [verfasserIn] Dong, Wenjie Yan, Dongdong Guo, Yan Wei, Zhigang Chou, Jieming Zhu, Xian Wen, Xiaohang

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2021

Schlagwörter:	Urbanization Land use/cover change Greenhouse gases concentration Future climate Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

Anmerkung:	© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Berlin : Springer, 1986, 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:58 ; year:2021 ; number:3-4 ; day:18 ; month:09 ; pages:1085-1105

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0

Katalog-ID:	SPR046305149

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100	1		\|a Zheng, Zhiyuan \|e verfasserin \|0 (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 \|4 aut
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520			\|a Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area.
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700	1		\|a Chou, Jieming \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Zhu, Xian \|4 aut
700	1		\|a Wen, Xiaohang \|4 aut
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allfields	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 doi (DE-627)SPR046305149 (SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zheng, Zhiyuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 aut Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dong, Wenjie aut Yan, Dongdong aut Guo, Yan aut Wei, Zhigang aut Chou, Jieming aut Zhu, Xian aut Wen, Xiaohang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 58 2021 3-4 18 09 1085-1105
spelling	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 doi (DE-627)SPR046305149 (SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zheng, Zhiyuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 aut Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dong, Wenjie aut Yan, Dongdong aut Guo, Yan aut Wei, Zhigang aut Chou, Jieming aut Zhu, Xian aut Wen, Xiaohang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 58 2021 3-4 18 09 1085-1105
allfields_unstemmed	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 doi (DE-627)SPR046305149 (SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zheng, Zhiyuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 aut Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dong, Wenjie aut Yan, Dongdong aut Guo, Yan aut Wei, Zhigang aut Chou, Jieming aut Zhu, Xian aut Wen, Xiaohang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 58 2021 3-4 18 09 1085-1105
allfieldsGer	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 doi (DE-627)SPR046305149 (SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zheng, Zhiyuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 aut Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dong, Wenjie aut Yan, Dongdong aut Guo, Yan aut Wei, Zhigang aut Chou, Jieming aut Zhu, Xian aut Wen, Xiaohang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 58 2021 3-4 18 09 1085-1105
allfieldsSound	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 doi (DE-627)SPR046305149 (SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Zheng, Zhiyuan verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077 aut Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dong, Wenjie aut Yan, Dongdong aut Guo, Yan aut Wei, Zhigang aut Chou, Jieming aut Zhu, Xian aut Wen, Xiaohang aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 58 2021 3-4 18 09 1085-1105
language	English
source	Enthalten in Climate dynamics 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105
sourceStr	Enthalten in Climate dynamics 58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. Sept., Seite 1085-1105 volume:58 year:2021 number:3-4 day:18 month:09 pages:1085-1105
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	Urbanization Land use/cover change Greenhouse gases concentration Future climate Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
isfreeaccess_bool	false
container_title	Climate dynamics
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Zheng, Zhiyuan @@aut@@ Dong, Wenjie @@aut@@ Yan, Dongdong @@aut@@ Guo, Yan @@aut@@ Wei, Zhigang @@aut@@ Chou, Jieming @@aut@@ Zhu, Xian @@aut@@ Wen, Xiaohang @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2021-09-18T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	268128561
id	SPR046305149
language_de	englisch
fullrecord	<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000caa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR046305149</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230507113851.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220223s2021 xx \|\|\|\|\|o 00\| \|\|eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR046305149</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s00382-021-05952-0-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Zheng, Zhiyuan</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="0">(orcid)0000-0002-8784-1077</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2021</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Urbanization</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Land use/cover change</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Greenhouse gases concentration</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Future climate</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Dong, Wenjie</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Yan, Dongdong</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Guo, Yan</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Wei, Zhigang</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Chou, Jieming</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Zhu, Xian</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Wen, Xiaohang</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Climate dynamics</subfield><subfield code="d">Berlin : Springer, 1986</subfield><subfield code="g">58(2021), 3-4 vom: 18. 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author	Zheng, Zhiyuan
spellingShingle	Zheng, Zhiyuan misc Urbanization misc Land use/cover change misc Greenhouse gases concentration misc Future climate misc Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China
authorStr	Zheng, Zhiyuan
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topic_title	Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China Urbanization (dpeaa)DE-He213 Land use/cover change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Greenhouse gases concentration (dpeaa)DE-He213 Future climate (dpeaa)DE-He213 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	misc Urbanization misc Land use/cover change misc Greenhouse gases concentration misc Future climate misc Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
topic_unstemmed	misc Urbanization misc Land use/cover change misc Greenhouse gases concentration misc Future climate misc Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
topic_browse	misc Urbanization misc Land use/cover change misc Greenhouse gases concentration misc Future climate misc Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
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title	Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China
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title_full	Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China
author_sort	Zheng, Zhiyuan
journal	Climate dynamics
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author_browse	Zheng, Zhiyuan Dong, Wenjie Yan, Dongdong Guo, Yan Wei, Zhigang Chou, Jieming Zhu, Xian Wen, Xiaohang
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title_sort	relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over beijing–tianjin–hebei region in china
title_auth	Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China
abstract	Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
abstractGer	Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
abstract_unstemmed	Abstract In this study, the effects of land use/cover (LULC) change induced by urbanization and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale and predict the future climate state using the RCP4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results show that large-scale general atmospheric circulation and GHGs are the two dominate factors for the future climate over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the next 10–20 years under the RCP4.5 scenario. Urbanization over a small-scale region and scattered areas has a slight effect on the regional future climate. On the urban local scale, the LULC change in the urban area has a relatively obvious impact on the local climate of the city through altering the land–atmosphere interaction within the urban region accompanied with seasonal dependence. The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) of urban area is projected to be 0.44 °C (2020), 0.87 °C (2030), and 1.48 °C (2040) higher than the climatology under different climate scenarios in the future resulting from integrated urbanization and GHGs forcing effects. The annual mean SAT of urban area changed by the GHGs forcing will increase by 0.35 °C (2020), 1.00 °C (2030), and 1.66 °C (2040), and the urbanization forcing will increase the annual mean SAT by 0.09 °C (2020), − 0.13 °C (2030), and − 0.18 °C (2040) in the urban area, respectively. The effects of urban expansion on the seasonal mean SAT are different during different the warm and cold periods of a year. The expanded urban area will increase the SAT during the warm period of a year (from March to September), and will decrease the SAT during the cold period of a year (from October to February of next year). The effects of scattered urbanization process and large-scale urban agglomeration on regional and local climate have strong spatial and temporal scale dependence. GHGs are the most important factor for dominating the future climate of this region. Meanwhile, due to the important impact of urbanization on the urban local scale, we strongly suggest that urbanization process should be considered in climate modeling system since it can provide a more realistic and reliable scenario of the future climate in the urban area. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
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container_issue	3-4
title_short	Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China
url	https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0
remote_bool	true
author2	Dong, Wenjie Yan, Dongdong Guo, Yan Wei, Zhigang Chou, Jieming Zhu, Xian Wen, Xiaohang
author2Str	Dong, Wenjie Yan, Dongdong Guo, Yan Wei, Zhigang Chou, Jieming Zhu, Xian Wen, Xiaohang
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doi_str	10.1007/s00382-021-05952-0
up_date	2024-07-03T21:42:19.065Z
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Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China

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