Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective
Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Healt...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Dunlop, Will [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2021 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: PharmacoEconomics - open - [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017, 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:6 ; year:2021 ; number:2 ; day:16 ; month:09 ; pages:241-252 |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR046314512 |
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| 520 | |a Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. | ||
| 520 | |a Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a van Keep, Marjolijn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Elroy, Peter |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Perez, Ignacio Diaz |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sarbajna, Tina |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Yiduo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Greystoke, Alastair |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046314512 (SPR)s41669-021-00301-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Dunlop, Will verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9794-8978 aut Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2021 Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. van Keep, Marjolijn aut Elroy, Peter aut Perez, Ignacio Diaz aut Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. aut Sarbajna, Tina aut Zhang, Yiduo aut Greystoke, Alastair aut Enthalten in PharmacoEconomics - open [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 (DE-627)87233726X (DE-600)2874287-4 2509-4254 nnns volume:6 year:2021 number:2 day:16 month:09 pages:241-252 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 2 16 09 241-252 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046314512 (SPR)s41669-021-00301-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Dunlop, Will verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9794-8978 aut Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2021 Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. van Keep, Marjolijn aut Elroy, Peter aut Perez, Ignacio Diaz aut Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. aut Sarbajna, Tina aut Zhang, Yiduo aut Greystoke, Alastair aut Enthalten in PharmacoEconomics - open [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 (DE-627)87233726X (DE-600)2874287-4 2509-4254 nnns volume:6 year:2021 number:2 day:16 month:09 pages:241-252 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 2 16 09 241-252 |
| allfields_unstemmed |
10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046314512 (SPR)s41669-021-00301-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Dunlop, Will verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9794-8978 aut Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2021 Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. van Keep, Marjolijn aut Elroy, Peter aut Perez, Ignacio Diaz aut Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. aut Sarbajna, Tina aut Zhang, Yiduo aut Greystoke, Alastair aut Enthalten in PharmacoEconomics - open [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 (DE-627)87233726X (DE-600)2874287-4 2509-4254 nnns volume:6 year:2021 number:2 day:16 month:09 pages:241-252 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 2 16 09 241-252 |
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10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046314512 (SPR)s41669-021-00301-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Dunlop, Will verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9794-8978 aut Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2021 Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. van Keep, Marjolijn aut Elroy, Peter aut Perez, Ignacio Diaz aut Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. aut Sarbajna, Tina aut Zhang, Yiduo aut Greystoke, Alastair aut Enthalten in PharmacoEconomics - open [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 (DE-627)87233726X (DE-600)2874287-4 2509-4254 nnns volume:6 year:2021 number:2 day:16 month:09 pages:241-252 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 2 16 09 241-252 |
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10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046314512 (SPR)s41669-021-00301-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Dunlop, Will verfasserin (orcid)0000-0002-9794-8978 aut Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2021 Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. van Keep, Marjolijn aut Elroy, Peter aut Perez, Ignacio Diaz aut Ouwens, Mario J. N. M. aut Sarbajna, Tina aut Zhang, Yiduo aut Greystoke, Alastair aut Enthalten in PharmacoEconomics - open [Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017 6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252 (DE-627)87233726X (DE-600)2874287-4 2509-4254 nnns volume:6 year:2021 number:2 day:16 month:09 pages:241-252 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 6 2021 2 16 09 241-252 |
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Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. 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The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. 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Dunlop, Will Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective |
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cost effectiveness of durvalumab in unresectable stage iii nsclc: 4-year survival update and model validation from a uk healthcare perspective |
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Cost Effectiveness of Durvalumab in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: 4-Year Survival Update and Model Validation from a UK Healthcare Perspective |
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Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. © The Author(s) 2021 |
| abstractGer |
Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. © The Author(s) 2021 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Background In the phase III PACIFIC study, durvalumab improved survival versus placebo in patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease had not progressed after platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The appraisal by the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) included a cost-effectiveness analysis based on an early data readout from PACIFIC [March 2018 data cut-off (DCO); median follow-up duration 25.2 months; range 0.2–43.1]. Uncertainties regarding long-term survival outcomes with durvalumab led to some challenges in estimating the cost effectiveness of this therapy. Objective Here, we validate the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis by benchmarking them against updated survival data from the 4-year follow-up analysis of PACIFIC (i.e. approximately 4 years after the last patient was randomised; March 2020 DCO; median follow-up duration 34.2 months; range 0.2–64.9). Moreover, we update the original analysis with these more mature survival data to examine the consistency of key economic outputs with the original analysis. Methods The original analysis used a semi-Markov (state-transition) approach and was based on patients whose tumours expressed programmed cell death-ligand 1 on ≥ 1% of cells (to reflect the European licence for durvalumab). We benchmarked the survival extrapolations used in the original company base-case analysis against survival data from the 4-year follow-up of PACIFIC and updated the cost-effectiveness analysis with these more mature survival data. Early deaths avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the UK Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in March 2019 were estimated using the 4-year follow-up survival data and an assumed uptake of 125 patients/year (lower estimate) and 367 patients/year (higher estimate). Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit. Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service. © The Author(s) 2021 |
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Results The original company base-case analysis had a good visual fit with the observed overall survival (OS) distribution for the durvalumab arm and accurately predicted the 48-month OS rate (predicted 55%; observed 55%); by comparison, the fit was less precise for the placebo arm, for which the analysis underestimated the 48-month OS rate (predicted 32%; observed 38%). In the updated company base-case analysis, durvalumab yielded 2.51 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (− 0.43 vs. the original company base-case analysis), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £22,665/QALY (+£3298 vs. the original analysis), which falls within the upper bound of NICE’s willingness-to-pay threshold (£30,000/QALY gained). We estimate that between 31 and 91 early patient deaths may have been avoided by the adoption of durvalumab into the CDF. Conclusions These findings reinforce the patient benefit observed with durvalumab in unresectable stage III NSCLC, support the routine use and cost effectiveness of this therapy, and demonstrate how appropriate modelling can inform the early adoption of therapies by payers to achieve patient benefit.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Plain Language Summary Based on the results of a clinical trial, the European Medicines Agency approved durvalumab for the treatment of adults with a specific type of advanced lung cancer whose tumours cannot be removed surgically and whose disease has not progressed after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invites companies to submit cost-effectiveness analyses to help with decision making about adopting new therapies. The company included an analysis based on early trial data that suggested durvalumab was cost effective compared with other previous treatments. As patients in the study at the time of the initial submission to NICE were only followed for approximately 2 years, the long-term survival benefit that could be achieved with durvalumab was uncertain. Therefore, NICE recommended durvalumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) to allow patients to access the drug while more data were being collected. Here, we demonstrate that the original cost-effectiveness model accurately predicted the rates of long-term survival for patients receiving durvalumab and that durvalumab remains a cost-effective use of healthcare resources based on recently published data from the trial (which added approximately 2 further years of follow-up). Moreover, we estimate that adopting durvalumab into the CDF may have avoided 31–91 early patient deaths from lung cancer. These findings support NICE’s early decision to make durvalumab available within the CDF and the adoption of durvalumab for routine use within the UK national health service.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">van Keep, Marjolijn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Elroy, Peter</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Perez, Ignacio Diaz</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ouwens, Mario J. N. M.</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Sarbajna, Tina</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Zhang, Yiduo</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Greystoke, Alastair</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">PharmacoEconomics - open</subfield><subfield code="d">[Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2017</subfield><subfield code="g">6(2021), 2 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 241-252</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-627)87233726X</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-600)2874287-4</subfield><subfield code="x">2509-4254</subfield><subfield code="7">nnns</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:6</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2021</subfield><subfield code="g">number:2</subfield><subfield code="g">day:16</subfield><subfield code="g">month:09</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:241-252</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41669-021-00301-7</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_USEFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SYSFLAG_A</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GBV_SPRINGER</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" 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